(回答先: アメリカ大統領選、党内第一回予備選、オバマの勝利についておもうこと 投稿者 まとおせ 日時 2008 年 1 月 06 日 16:51:08)

まとおせさんの「アメリカは動きつつある、リセットされようとしている。」という一文を見て、オバマ公約を少し調べてみましたが、（出典：Council on Foreign Relations）

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http://www.cfr.org/bios/11603/barack_obama.html#6

Domestic Intelligence

Sen. Obama’s (D-IL) response to the NSA spying controversy was mixed. On one hand, he opposed the nomination of former NSA chief Michael Hayden to the position of CIA director because of his role in the warrantless wiretapping program and said that he disapproved of Bush’s avoidance of FISA oversight in the NSA eavesdropping efforts. But on the other hand, like Clinton, Dodd, and Biden, he did not join in Feingold’s efforts to censure Bush over the warrantless wiretapping of U.S. citizens.

オバマはブッシュの「証拠なし盗聴」に反対せず

War on Terror

Like Clinton, Obama says the government’s priority should be preventing terrorist groups from obtaining weapons of mass destruction.

In a August 1 speech, Obama called for a greater counterterrorism focus on Afghanistan and the tribal region of Pakistan. With regards to Pakistan, he indicated that under his leadership, “if we have actionable intelligence about high-value targets and President Musharraf won't act, we will.”

U.S. Policy toward Pakistan
Pakistan first achieved notoriety in the presidential campaign in summer 2007 when Obama said he believed the United States should hunt al-Qaeda forces in Pakistan.

・テロリストへの大量破壊兵器拡散阻止主張
・アフガニスタン・パキスタンへの介入拡大主張

Energy Policy

Obama says he will attempt to reduce oil consumption by 7.64 million barrels a day by 2025 from current levels.
Obama has also said that he supports tax breaks and loan guarantees for users of clean energy sources like ethanol and blended fuel E85.

Climate Change

Sen. Obama (D-IL) cosponsored the Climate Stewardship and Innovation Act of 2007, which would establish a “Climate Change Credit Corporation” to manage tradeable allowances and stimulate the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. That bill has not yet been voted on. With Hillary Clinton, Obama recently signed on as a cosponsor of the Global Warming Pollution Reduction Act.

・2025年までにアメリカの石油消費量を減らすと主張
・環境政策、温暖化対策に力点
・バイオエタノールなどの「クリーンエネルギー」奨励
（とゆーことは、先日の「ファンドマネーが食を動かす」で報じられたように、食糧がエネルギー源に転用されることで穀物価格高騰は避けられず、アメリカ・日本の消費者が大打撃を被るのみならず、最悪の可能性として穀物戦略で日本を締めあげることも考えられる？）

参考投稿：「ファンドマネーが食を操る」(NHK）
http://www.asyura2.com/07/war99/msg/472.html
投稿者 姉葉大作 日時 2008 年 1 月 04 日 21:20:47:

Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Sen. Obama (S-IL) has taken a strongly pro-Israel tone in addressing the conflict. In a speech before AIPAC in March 2007, Obama said the United States must “strengthen the hands of Palestinian moderates” and isolate Hamas. Haaretz U.S. correspondent Shmuel Rosner said that before AIPAC, Obama “sounded as strong as Clinton, as supportive as Bush, as friendly as Giuliani.”

Obama cosponsored the Palestinian Anti-Terrorism Act of 2006 and, like most of his fellow candidates, has called on the Palestinian leadership to “recognize Israel, to renounce violence, and to get serious about negotiating peace and security for the region.”

If elected, Obama says he would “insist on fully funding military assistance to Israel” (JPost) and continue to cooperate with Israel on the development of the Arrow missile defense system.

・歴代政権同様、イスラエルを強く支持

U.S. Policy toward China
Sen. Obama (D-IL) has expressed interest in cooperation with China, although he sees the country as a major competitor to the United States

・中国と協調路線を選択

Defense Policy

In a speech to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs in April 2007, Sen. Obama (D-IL) advocated the expansion of the military to include an additional sixty-five thousand army soldiers and twenty-seven thousand marines. He also called for an increase in the number of Arabic speakers in the military.

・アメリカ軍増強を主張

Iraq

Sen. Obama (D-IL) writes in Foreign Affairs that the United States needs to move beyond Iraq and “refocus our attention on the broader Middle East.”

In January 2007, Obama proposed the Iraq War De-Escalation Act of 2007, which would reverse the troop surge and redeploy U.S. troops to Afghanistan and other locations in phases. He favors more funds for U.S. military equipment like night-vision goggles and reinforced Humvees,

In September 2007, Obama released his plan (PDF) to "responsibly end the war in Iraq," calling for a complete redeployment of U.S. troops from Iraq by the end of 2009, starting immediately.

・イラク駐留軍を縮小し（move beyondやredeployment＝完全撤退とは言いきれないのでは？）、アフガン転進を主張。軍装備改良に資金投入を主張。

Trade

Sen. Obama (D-IL) generally supports free trade policies, though like many of his fellow Democratic candidates, he has expressed concern about free trade agreements that do not include labor and environmental protections.

In an August 2007 Democratic debate, Obama said he would meet with the Canadian and Mexican heads of state to “try to amend NAFTA,” saying the agreement “should reflect the principle that our trade should not just be good for Wall Street, but should also be good for Main Street” (see video).

・自由貿易に基本的に賛成
・NAFTA見直しに言及（北米連合結成？）

Iran

Sen. Obama (D-IL) has expressed support for “opening dialogue” with Iran, in part to ask for its assistance in “playing a more constructive role in Iraq.”
Obama said in a March 2007 speech before AIPAC that he supports “tough sanctions” on Iran to compel it to stop its uranium enrichment program. In the same speech, he said that he “does not believe that the use of military force towards Iran should be ruled out (Chicago Sun-Times). Still, in an April 2007 presidential debate, Obama said, “I think it would be a profound mistake (NYT) for us to initiate a war with Iran.

・対イラン経済制裁主張
・公開の場ではイラン戦争に反対するも、AIPACでは戦争を選択肢から排除しないと主張

Immigration
Sen. Obama (D-IL), the son of a Kenyan immigrant, has spoken out on immigration and voted on numerous immigration bills since taking office in January 2005.

・移民には寛容

U.S. Policy toward Russia

Sen. Obama (D-IL) has said Russia is “neither our enemy nor close ally,” and said the United States “shouldn’t shy away from pushing for more democracy, transparency, and accountability” there.
・ロシア「民主化」を主張

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これを見る限り、オバマの公約はアメリカ歴代政権と大差なく、たとえば外国への介入やアメリカ国民の不利益になる自由貿易に反対しているロン・ポールの明快簡潔な主張とは大きく異なっており、

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http://www.cfr.org/bios/13303/ron_paul.html

War on Terror

Rep. Paul (R-TX) is strictly non-interventionist and criticizes military campaigns in Afghanistan

Democracy Promotion in the Arab World

The noninterventionist Rep. Paul (R-TX) voted against the 2006 Iran Freedom Support Act,

Energy Policy

Paul is against government subsides for ethanol (Grist) and pro-nuclear power.

Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Rep. Paul (R-TX) has criticized U.S. “meddling” in the Middle East,

U.S. Policy toward China

Rep. Paul (R-TX) has called China “one of the most brutal,anti-American regimes in the world.”

Trade

Rep. Paul (R-TX), who sits on the House Subcommittee on Domestic and International Monetary Policy, Trade, and Technology, voted against free trade agreements with Oman, Chile, Singapore and Peru. He was a strong critic of CAFTA, of which he said “I believe in free trade, but this is not free trade. This is regulated, managed trade for the benefit of special interests.”

Homeland Security

Rep. Paul (R-TX), who holds strong libertarian views, voted against a number of homeland security measures that he considered to be infringements on personal liberties.

Iran

In a speech before the House in April 2007, Paul (R-TX) criticized what he sees as neoconservative efforts to drum up support for military action against Iran.

U.S. Policy toward Pakistan

Rep. Paul (R-TX) opposes U.S. aid to Pakistan’s government.
−−−−−−−−−

オバマに「変革」を期待している有権者は（なまじ「変革」イメージを売りにしているだけ）後々失望する結果に終わるような気がします（かつてはジミーカーターという前例もありました）。
個人的にはオバマがアメリカを変えるとすれば、たとえば北米連合結成の方向に動くというように、アメリカ国民に不利になるように変えるのでは、と漠然と考えています。

−−−
しかし、たとえオバマが大統領になったとしても、日本に対する要求は、多くなることはあっても、減ることはない。
−−−
これは同意します。オバマのエネルギー・中国政策を見る限り、日米関係はより疎遠に、かつ困難になることが予測されます。

▽参考
Renewing American Leadership
Barack Obama
From Foreign Affairs, July/August 2007
http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20070701faessay86401/barack-obama/renewing-american-leadership.html

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