http://www.zeit.de/2003/18/Todd
America degenerates, Europe is the coming power ? the French historian Emmanuel Todd over the future of the transatlantic relations

Of Emmanuel Todd

The time: they designated the Iraq-war as ?mikromilitarisches Theater“. Did the use not be worthwhile?

Emmanuel Todd: because I am no moralist, but rather historian, I must ask how the already weakened regime Saddams in its last development phase would have behaved. It would have been able to break up like the totalitarian Soviet Union within short. Of the moment on when the regime gave way the international pressure to the disarmament, protected a regime change possible, that would have cost by far less victim than this war. The war did not accelerate the change, gives because it now to be sure no more regime, but also no order. The mastering of the war sequence will last years.

Time: you before statements have the downfall of the Soviet Union 25 years ago. Now you speak about the decline of the USA, that won yet just the Iraq-war. How do you come in addition?

Todd: a military illusion, a gigantic waste was the war against Iraq on the far side of all proportionality of the means. The USA won over an extensively disarmed and bled to death country with a barefoot-army within a weakened region. On the other hand the true counterpoises to the USA in Europe, Russia, China or Japan are to be sought. In Iraq, the USA its military Omnipotenz demonstrated, around over its economical weakness away deceit. The true competition militarily is expedited no longer. The central battlefield and the head reason for the American worries is the economic area.

Is time: the not pure Wunschdenken of an America-skeptic?

Todd: the USA love I actually very. They were until before short the most important international order factor. Now they become a factor of the uncertainty. The industrial kernel of the USA is jeopardized. The trade deficit of the Americans amounts to 500 billions of dollar in the year. The country needs 1.5 billions of dollar daily at foreign capital influx. This dependence brought the USA out of the balance. They can live no longer out of characteristic power. The export strong Europe can that very probably. And Russia develops just a capitalism in the characteristic country to which it possesses also the natural resources.

Time: the USA nevertheless is the uncontested global leading power.

Todd: the undoubted victor of the 20th century were the USA. Now they have difficulties to recognize its new dependence. Until now the Europeans were underdeveloped and envied the USA around its standard of living and its technical products. That produced here one certainly modesty. Today the USA is only in the military leading. In most areas, they were overtaken of the Europeans.

Time: but Europe is torn up politically totally.

Todd: Europe power is based upon the economic integration, that passes totally independent of the political decisions. Whether the governments in Eastern Europe want it, or, they are not economic at Europe and Russia angebunden. The only what they can get out of America, armaments supplies are, but no machines or were because America has no export capacities. The diplomatic game of the USA is absurd. With the Iraq-war, they created to be sure dissidents in the ?neuen Europa“, whose development dynamics depends however further on the ?alten“ Europe and Russia. That recognized also Turkey, that went on clear distance to the USA.

Time: Europe no Registrierkasse is yet how the French Foreign Minister Dominique says de villas pi.

Todd: Europe still has no joint foreign policy. That existed until now always only in the following with the USA. Now the German has herself its international freedom of action zuruckerobert. One can value the strategic and symbolic dimension of this change not at all highly enough. Jointly with France, a kernel of the political renewal, that independently makes itself of the USA and is based at the same time upon an overpowering approval of the population, emerges. On the other hand Spain, England, Italy and the east Europeans do not represent politically the new, but rather rather the old Europe because they not yet reached its autonomy.

Time: how can one repair the disturbed ratio of France and Germany to the Britons?

Todd: Blair that tried for years to turn on itself into the German-French process, noticed let during the current crisis that both in the emergency closely stand side by side and it little influence possibilities. Yet one must raise a friendly understanding that the Britons have connections real historic and cultural with the USA, but are at the same time European. I am hopeful, that the Britons again to Europe zuruckfinden. The driving power at the same time will be above all the new violence, instability and arrogance of the Americans. There the Britons will notice of very alone that they belong to the European value partnership.

Time: but that sand box maneuvers in a time are come yet, in that the wars no longer from countries, but rather of terrorist groups, that of regime unscrupulous in part with aid the west attackieren.

Todd: a powerful myth, with which the USA takes itself the right to a cross train, is the ubiquity of the terrorism in order to demonstrate on the Philippines, in the Jemen or in Iraq its Unersetzlichkeit. Through this permanent war condition, the USA wants to hold the old world in breath. But against terrorist, no military means helps, but rather only a functioning police working and secret service working. Since the attacks on the World Trade Center, the terrorist danger could be minimized in this manner, not however the collective psychosis of the Americans.

Time: they play down the danger. What is with the attacks in Djerba and on Bali?

Todd: terrible massacres were that, but without political threat potential. These attempts on islamic ground showed sooner the inability of the murderers to export its terror further into the western foreign countries. In Europe, there were no attacks after the 11 September 2001. I am demo count and comply with the facts: I count the dead. Altogether the Arabic and islamic terrorism is no relapse of these regions into the barbarism, but rather result of a transformation crisis in the process of the modernization. All countries of the world have pass through this upheaval in the entourage of the Alphabetisierung and births inspection. Yet because all islamic countries are weakened, no dangerous great power can there as well as in Europe once emerge. These countries produce only the terrorism, that becomes itself with the end of the demo graphic revolution as it were of even from growth.

Time: and what is with the weapons of mass destruction?

Todd: that play in reality no role. The attack most dangerous terrorist until now in New York was not carried out with poison gas, but rather with knives and civil airplanes. On the other hand only police working and secret service working helps. The Anthrax-attacks on the other hand came out of the interior of America itself. First now stands to fear that with the invasion of the Americans in Iraq of the terrorism proded becomes. At the same time the American air superiority to a new Proliferation of these weapons leads. For only therewith certain countries certainly can feel in the future before American bombing raids.

Time: what should happen with the so named scoundrel countries, that support the terrorists?

Todd: a product of the Aufbaubeit was the Afghanistan of the Talibans through the USA and Russia. On the other hand Iraq was a bloody dictatorship, but no scoundrel country that supported terrorist. No scoundrel country is also the Irans, but rather modernizes itself toward a pluralistic system. And Cuba at the other end of the axis of the squall supports also no terrorists.

Time: before which challenges does the international right stand?

Todd: the UN were majority against the Iraq-war. Nevertheless the USA led it and injured therewith the international right. The UN are today more in the conversation than ever before. Yet its roll never was so important. Your failure in the solution of the Iraq-crisis stirs therefore that the USA operates a dangerous and illegitimate politics. In view of the Destabilisierung America, one should think about over the whereabouts of the UN in New York, however because of the working security for the delegated. The UN could move thoroughly to Europe, perhaps into Switzerland.

Time: in the UN, yet even numerous scoundrel countries sit.

Todd: the UN no club of the democracies are unfortunately, but rather an organization that should solve the problems between countries without war. In all nations of the world, there are enormous progress through the irresistible Alphabetisierung and women emancipation toward democratization, that does not let itself to be sure from without oktroyieren. One can begin no war against Syria or China in order to introduce there the democracy.

Time: the USA counts as a the single country of an ideal democratic Universalismus, that its values would like to export.

Todd: in contrast to Europe, the democracy and the middle class rights of freedom in America are restricted today a long time to very when that there could be from there an export of these values. The Iraq-war was a geopolitische power demonstration, but no unselfish democratic mission. Rather the Europeans of the USA must demand now to make in Iraq with the democracy seriously. With Saddams slump, the end of the American hypocrisy came. At the same time I am far removed of the deeply sitting Antiamerikanismus of many Frenchmen. My grandfather was Austrian Jew and American citizen. My mother is implored in the second world war into the USA. I have a positive basic outlook to America. To understand effort large yet now prepared it us, how out of a guarantor of the peace, who becomes order and the freedom a factor of the disorder and the war.

We cannot speak more long about the USA than a large democracy. The choice system is in the crisis. The internal inequality are awake. A rich American is to be compared no longer to a rich European. There is there a new Plutokratie that damages the American dream. Since the economic scandals, the belief is ruined at the free market just as like earlier the belief at the communism. The explosion of this myth fell America into a large spirituelle crisis. Therefore the fundamentalism new religious. The USA projects its characteristic internal the integration on the world.

Is time: but America not weakened also therefore because it had to worry in the past 50 years extensively alone for the order in the world?

Todd: a moral view, that has to do nothing with historic facts, is that. After the 11 September, the USA experienced an enormous worldwide solidarity. The threat of the USA, the nation, which counted until there as a guarantor of the global security, schurte at all countries large anxieties. Everyone wanted to help, from Russia to NATO. The Americans did not want yet that because they would have perceived the weakness characteristic as sign. They heard always fewer on its allies and became more always arroganter.

The USA hangs, what concerns the trade balances and the finance currents, a long time on the drop of the entire world. Nevertheless they please itself rather in a power statement, that goes to the reality denial. On that the Europeans can react not more long with kindness, but rather must become more binding and with industrial and financial means on the other hand stop. They would have to recognize also that it lies in the European interest to keep Iraq of American influence free because therefrom the European energy supply system depends.

Will time: the imbalance not further grow for the benefit of the USA nevertheless?

Todd: if there is no against power to the American militarism, ? becomes; the Europeans know begin that out of its characteristic getting best ? the kriegfuhrende country the next war. With Syria, it goes off already. On the other hand Europe and Russia must construct a stable strategic structure. It does not concern the upheaval of old alliances, but rather around its supplement. The exclusive Privilegierung of the Atlantic axis functions no longer.

Is time: Russia a reliable partner?

Todd: Russia is no longer dangerous. The German sees that naturally unlike the Frenchmen, who had less problems with the Russians. In the Russian culture, it gives a stable Universalismus as well as in France, an egalitare view of family and company. In the phase of the Expansionismus of this universal equivalence ? first 1789 and then 1918 ? Germany extremely was tied up after each other of two sides. Yet today Russia is weakened and is in a similar demo graphic crisis as well as Germany and France. In the present phase of the Russian contract ions, that is, what remains of the earlier Universalismus remaining, a multipolar visibility on a world in equilibrium.

Time: wanting you a breach with the USA?

Todd: no, I much stand the Anglo-Saxon culture more closely than the Russian. Yet we need a counterpoise to the USA. It does not concern breach, but rather around autonomy. In order to avoid an antagonistisches relation to the USA, it is important that Great Britain returns. Then Europe can become not antiamerikanisch at all. Much sooner the danger exists that the USA becomes antagonistisch and antieuropaisch. EU and UN are strong, but Nato became useless. Today Russia became a much more important guarantor of the European security.

Time: what can the USA against that of you predicted do decline?

Todd: presently the USA selected the way of the military gesticulation. It would be better for it to strive for an industrial reconstruction and technological renewal, in order to become again productive. The world believes, would have obtained that USA through its victory in Iraq the worldwide leadership. Yet they reacted with military means to a nichtmilitarisches problem. I believe that they lost through it just its omnipotence.

D’Etudes Demographiques in Paris the anthropologist and historian Emmanuel Todd, 51, works as a population scientist at the institute nationally. It published finally ?Weltmacht USA. A Nachruf“. With it, Michael Monninger spoke

(C) THE TIME 24.04.2003 Nr. 18

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