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回答先: 「フォーリン・アフェアーズ」誌に日本論２題掲載へ ２１世紀には昇る？沈む？ 投稿者 倉田佳典 日時 2000 年 6 月 20 日 22:06:45:
Foreign Affairs July/August 2000 Issue
PRESS RELEASE
In the July/August 2000 issue of Foreign Affairs . . .
WILL JAPAN RISE AGAIN
Can Japan's economy, still struggling after a paralyzing
recession and a full-blown financial crisis, ever thrive again?
M. Diana Helweg shows how new Japanese businesses are
sparking an economic revolution. But Aurelia George Mulgan
sees government corruption and inertia stifling reform.
THE FORGOTTEN NUCLEAR POWER
China is in the process of modernizing its nuclear arsenal. Brad
Roberts, Robert A. Manning, and Ronald N. Montaperto
reveal what its options are and how U.S. missile defenses could
cause more problems than they solve.
NICKEL AND DIMING FOREIGN POLICY
Richard N. Gardner warns that America spends far too little
on its foreign policy.
HOW TO SAVE COLOMBIA
Rafael Pardo warns that unless the United States steps in
soon, Colombia might lose its twin wars against guerrillas and
drugs.
ALSO IN THIS ISSUE:
Ofra Bengio on how Saddam has held on for so long.
Jagdish Bhagwati and Sophie Meunier on the opponents of
globalization.
Philip H. Gordon on what's wrong with Europe's new defense
plans.
WILL JAPAN RISE AGAIN?
Japan: A Rising Sun?
The Japanese economy of old-coddled by an overbearing government
and riddled with corruption喫s dying. In its place, argues M. Diana
Helweg of Southern Methodist University and the Council on Foreign
Relations, a full-blown economic revolution is occurring in Japan
today. Companies are putting profits ahead of personal loyalties.
Reforms are breathing life into decayed industries. And the climate
for foreign investment is better than ev
er. Perhaps most important, a
new wave of small, innovative high-tech companies is forcing change
on the entire economy. The government's lackluster economic
stewardship is no longer important, because the state is not driving
today's revolution; business is.
Japanese companies have begun seeking out their own
consolidations and mergers in order to receive the same
opportunities that foreign investors have seized. They
are voluntarily restructuring themselves and sloughing
off extraneous investments, focusing instead on the
most profitable areas of their business. Motivated by
the rising cost of capital, universally low profits,
growing global competition, and the information
revolution, many Japanese companies have now set their
eyes on the bottom line.
Japan: A Setting Sun?
The Asian financial crisis appeared to have one benefit: prodding the
Japanese government to fix its economy. But according to the
University of New South Wales' Aurelia George Mulgan, the urge to
reform has worn off. The Liberal Democratic Party, never a true
champion of reform, now blocks deregulation from every angle.
Wasteful public spending has created little but debt. And the public's
trust in its government has eroded. Recovery would require Japan's
politicians to give up the many benefits of the status quo虐omething
they are unlikely to do. Thus Japan's reforms remain stalled, and its
economy languishes.
Despite the fact that the Japanese economy has
repeatedly shown that old methods and policies do not
work, the push for reform has been vetoed by
bureaucrats and LDP politicians. The modest injection of
dynamism into the economy effected by corporate
restructuring, the information-technology boom, the
explosion in e-commerce, and the dissolution of
traditional keiretsu corporate groups詰egacies of the
zaibatsu conglomerates that were bro
ken up after World
War II喫s not enough to offset the drag of vested
interests and myopic, self-serving bureaucrats and
politicians.
NICKEL AND DIMING FOREIGN POLICY
The One Percent Solution
Richard N. Gardner, Columbia University law professor and former
high-ranking diplomat, reports on a dangerous game being played with
foreign spending in Washington: the "one percent solution." Those who
think that U.S. foreign policy can be carried out with barely one
percent of the federal budget are wrong. Unless the next president
persuades the country to spend what is required, American interests
will suffer lasting damage.
More money is not a substitute for an effective foreign
policy, but an effective foreign policy will simply be
impossible without more money. Foreign policy experts
therefore disdain "boring budget arithmetic" at their
peril.
HOW TO SAVE COLOMBIA
Colombia's Two-Front War
Colombia is waging a war on two fronts: against guerrillas and
against drugs. The former cannot be won on the battlefield alone. If
the current peace talks fail, the country will plunge into all-out
chaos. So argues Rafael Pardo, former special adviser for peace
negotiations to President Virgilio Barco and Colombia's first civilian
minister of defense. The United States needs to take Colombia off the
back burner and work with its government to reduce the violence,
limit the drug lords' clout, lower the demand for drugs, and prod the
peace process along. Without these steps, even billions in U.S. aid will
not be enough.
The drug class has spread corruption money around
Congress and other Colombian institutions and financed
the campaign of a former president. Traffickers know
their market, and they knew that they should not work
in big cartels. That business acumen has paid off, and
more cocaine than ever is now being imported to the
United States, according to recent reports. The violence
produced by the traffickers in Colombia is closely
linked to the appetite of consumers in the United States
and Europe蟻nother good reason why attention must be
paid.
Also in this issue:
How Does Saddam Hold On?
For decades, Saddam Hussein's fall has been called imminent. But he
has managed to hold on to power longer than any other modern Iraqi
ruler. According to Ofra Bengio, Middle East expert at Tel Aviv
University and author of Saddam's Word, Saddam's seeming
invincibility is owed to his ruthless personality, clumsy foes, and
mastery of virtually all Iraqi institutions, including the military. His
most likely successors are his sons, both apt to be as thuggish as
their father. The West's only viable strategy is to wait Saddam out
while nudging Iraq's battered elites to replace him with a more
responsible, less brutal autocrat. But it should not hold its breath.
By essentially conditioning the end of the embargo on
Saddam's ouster, [President Bush and President Clinton]
once again played into his hands. Saddam has used this
demand to divert responsibility for the misery of
sanctions away from himself and onto the United
States, which he blames for all of Iraq's mishaps. The
prolongation of the embargo has thus strengthened
Saddam rather than weakening him, not least because it
has made Iraqis depend on him more than ever for their
livelihood.
Globalization in Your Face
Jagdish Bhagwati's review of A Future Perfect reveals the
human side of global capitalism.
Sophie Meunier explains the French resistance to
American-style globalization.
Their Own Army?
Philip H. Gordon warns that Europe's plans for a unified military
force, if done wrong, could cause transatlantic tensions and weaken
rather than strengthen Eu
ropean defense.
James F. Hoge, Jr. -- Editor
Fareed Zakaria -- Managing Editor
David Kellogg -- Publisher
Contact: dkellogg@email.cfr.org
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題名には必ず「阿修羅さんへ」と記述してください。