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元記事へのリンク
ttp://www.nytimes.com/2003/01/01/international/asia/01PREX.html
＜適当な要約です。＞ブッシュ大統領は、去年１２月３１日、北朝鮮とは、平和的解決が望めるものの、イラクに対しては、『戦争に向かってない事を望む物の、武装解除しなければ攻撃は免れない』と発言。
ブッシュ大統領：
イラク攻撃の為の＄５０billionから$60billion程のお金（先日発表の見積もりによる）をアメリカは本当に出せるのかとの問いに対し、『フセインからの攻撃やフセインの代用人は我々の経済に害を及ぼすし、フセインが大量破壊兵器を持ったらアメリカの安全保障にとって脅威をもたらすだ。』
秋のクローフォードでの中国の大統領との会談で、北朝鮮に関しては、中国とは平和的解決を模索する様に協調する事を約束した事を強調。その時、『中国の大統領とは、北朝鮮の金正日には、核武装は北の利益では無い事を説得しようと話し合った。』ブッシュ大統領は、『北との平和的解決は可能だと思う』と発言。
ニューヨークタイムズ：
中国は、北朝鮮の行動を非難した物の、経済制裁については難色を示している。北朝鮮は中国の重要な貿易相手国のため。
北朝鮮、イラクとでの対応の違いについては、内外から批判の意見が出ている事を指摘。ブッシュ大統領側近は、北朝鮮は、確かにソウルに壊滅的なダメージを与える程の戦闘力をもっているが、かえってその為に、朝鮮戦争の再来の危険性もあり、武力衝突は避けたいとの結論に至った。一方、サダムフセインは、単なる生き残りを懸けていると言うよりも、地域支配を目論んでいるので、北より危険である。なので、北並の大量破壊兵器を所有する前に、イラクには立ち向かう必要がある。
国家保安関係者は、『両方に対処できる』と言っている物の、W. Christopher氏が、ニューヨークタイムズへの寄稿文にて、現在のホワイトハウスの機構から考えると一度に沢山の事を同時に対処するは、難しいのではないかと指摘する声もある。
The New York Times
International
January 1, 2003
President Makes Case That North Korea Is No Iraq
By DAVID E. SANGER
CRAWFORD, Tex., Dec. 31 — President Bush drew a sharp distinction today between the nuclear standoff with North Korea and his confrontation with Iraq, saying he was certain that weapons projects in North Korea could be stopped "peacefully, through diplomacy." He said that Saddam Hussein, on the other hand, "hasn't heard the message" that he must disarm, or face military action.
Answering questions on his way into the only coffee shop in this one-stoplight town near his ranch, Mr. Bush issued no demands that North Korea halt the nuclear programs it has threatened to restart, and he did not mentioned the ouster today of the international inspectors who have monitored activity at the country's primary nuclear site.
"I believe this is not a military showdown, this is a diplomatic showdown," the president said, on his way to get a cheeseburger and to chat with his neighbors here.
But the president's tone and his warnings changed noticeably when he turned to Iraq. He cited Mr. Hussein's effort to build a nuclear weapon in the early 1990's and said that as of now "we don't know whether or not he has a nuclear weapon."
Assessing the nuclear capability of both North Korea and Iraq has been among the most difficult tasks facing Western intelligence agencies. The Central Intelligence Agency and Britain's intelligence service have publicly estimated it would take Iraq five years to develop such a weapon — or a single year if Mr. Hussein was provided with fissile material. North Korea already has two weapons, according to C.I.A. estimates, and could build five or six more in the next six months if it reprocessed its large stockpile of spent nuclear fuel into weapons-grade plutonium.
Adding to the pressure, North Korea took another step today toward removing its nuclear program from international controls by strongly suggesting it would withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. [Page A9.]
The signals Mr. Bush sent with his comments were particularly significant because the administration has come under increasing criticism, from Democrats and some Republicans, for playing down the significance of North Korea's actions while plowing forward in the confrontation with Iraq.
In The New York Times today, former Secretary of State Warren Christopher wrote that unless Mr. Bush had classified evidence of greater Iraqi military capability than was known to the public, "the threats from North Korea and from international terrorism are more imminent than those posed by Iraq."
Mr. Bush took issue with that view today. Asked whether the United States could afford the $50 billion to $60 billion it would cost to wage war with Iraq, an estimate his budget director offered on Monday, he said, "an attack from Saddam Hussein or a surrogate of Saddam Hussein would cripple our economy." He added, "A Saddam Hussein with weapons of mass destruction is a threat to the security of the American people."
In contrast, he said nothing about his view of the threat posed by Kim Jong Il, the North Korean leader.
During his presidential campaign, Mr. Bush often cited the possibility of an attack by North Korea as a reason that the United States needed a missile defense system. North Korea already has a significant arsenal of missiles that could reach South Korea, Japan and 100,000 American troops stationed in Asia; Mr. Hussein is believed to possess only Scud missiles with far more limited range.
Nevertheless, Mr. Bush talked at some length today about his worry that Iraq could find a way to attack the United States, either directly or indirectly. As he spoke, a crowd of Crawford residents and curious tourists gathered around the entrance of the coffee shop.
In his comments, Mr. Bush also addressed for the first time the F.B.I. alert issued two days ago, asking Americans to keep a lookout for five people, all of Arab descent, it is searching for in the United States. Mr. Bush said he had authorized the F.B.I. to put out an all-points bulletin. He did not refer to the men as terrorism suspects, but said, "We need to know why they have been smuggled into the country."
Mr. Bush's comments today about North Korea and Iraq seemed to suggest that he has concluded that Mr. Kim can be persuaded to reverse course under threat of economic pressure, a method that Mr. Bush says has failed with Iraq. He twice noted that in a meeting at his ranch this fall with President Jiang Zemin of China, the two leaders promised to work in concert to deal with the North Korean government.
"Right here in Crawford, we had a dialogue where we both committed ourselves to working in a way to convince Kim Jong Il that it's not in his country's interests to arm up with nuclear weapons," Mr. Bush said, standing in front of the coffee shop in a light windbreaker, after a morning of working around his ranch. "And I believe that can be resolved peacefully."
China has denounced North Korea's actions, but it has stopped short of saying it will join in any economic sanctions against the country — a critical omission, because China is one of the North's most important trading partners.
In discussing Iraq, the president told reporters, "I hope we're not headed to war." But he quickly added: "We've got a military presence there to remind Saddam Hussein, however, that when I say we will lead a coalition of the willing to disarm him if he chooses not to disarm, I mean it. And we will continue to work to resolve the situation on the Korean Peninsula in a peaceful way."
In private, some of Mr. Bush's aides offer a more explicit explanation of the difference in the administration's approach to the two countries. They argue that the North's existing nuclear capability, and its ability to wreak enormous damage on Seoul with its conventional weapons, has led them to conclude that the United States has no viable military options, at least without risking the rekindling of the Korean War.
Mr. Hussein, they contend, is the more dangerous of the two men, seeking regional domination rather than just survival. They say he must be confronted before he obtains the kinds of weapons of mass destruction that Mr. Kim already possesses.
One of Mr. Bush's senior national security officials argued over the weekend, however, that the United States was not putting North Korea on the back burner while it dealt with Iraq, and did not need to do so. "We can handle both," the official said.
Mr. Christopher's article today suggested that no president, even in a White House as disciplined as this one, could manage that feat.
"Anyone who has worked at the highest levels of our government," he wrote, "knows how difficult it is to engage the attention of the White House on anything other than the issue of the day."
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