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(回答先: 米有力調査機関、１ドル＝１４２円台を予想〔朝日新聞〕 投稿者 FP親衛隊国家保安本部 日時 2002 年 2 月 17 日 12:41:52)
Super U.S. Dollar Growing Even Stronger
14 February 2002
The strengthening U.S. dollar is becoming even stronger against all major currencies, suggesting problems ahead for the global market system, The Conference Board reports today.
In its nonstop advance over the last six years, the dollar is pushing toward its 1985 peak (adjusted for inflation). The 2002 year end forecast for the euro and the yen -- pegged at 0.84 and 142, respectively -- point to new lows for both currencies. Since both the euro and the yen are tending to cushion each others' weakness as they decline, neither currency has the power to dislodge the dollar from its dominant position.
With 60% of all world trade now denominated in dollars, these declines substantially diminish the international purchasing power of most currencies.
"The steady appreciation of the dollar has virtually erased the tendency of the euro and the yen to appreciate," says Gail Fosler, Chief Economist of The Conference Board, in a forecast released today to Conference Board members in more than 67 nations. "The global economic system needs a tough look and even tougher leadership. Currency volatility is tremendously destabilizing, but the underlying differences in economic performance among countries are even more so. The continued rise of the dollar is a very loud signal that the global market system needs work."
THE WORLD FALLOUT FROM KING DOLLAR
The prospect of reduced demand and excess capacity pose significant problems for the global trading system.
The upward bias to the dollar not only reduces the ability of countries to purchase goods on the world market, but also raises local interest rates, suppresses local demand, and increases incentives to add local capacity for export. This results in lower global growth and global prices. Lower prices increase the pressure on high-cost countries to raise productivity and this tends to extend the U.S. technology-driven productivity lead, supporting a still stronger dollar.
On average, the euro and its antecedent, the ecu, declined about 2% per year during the 1990s. The yen, which appreciated at an average rate of 5% per year between 1973 and 1990, has not appreciated on average since 1995. Only two currencies in the Federal Reserve's Major Currencies Index, the Canadian dollar and the UK pound, appear to be holding their own against the dollar.
NO MORE CURRENCIES TO DEVALUE
Emerging market currencies are facing a slightly worse scenario. Within a market basket of 22 emerging market currencies, 13 have declined by over 40% since 1995. While some have celebrated the fact that devaluation of the Argentine peso has not brought down other currencies, a less favorable view would be that there are no other currencies left to devalue.
Even with higher interest rate spreads, capital flows to emerging markets have declined to a fraction of their mid-1990s peaks. Net private capital flows peaked in 1996 at $327.7 billion -- 6.2% of emerging market Gross Domestic Product. Most emerging markets today are growing at only 3% to 5% annual rates, and the multinational expansion that fed the earlier boom has shifted in favor of global consolidation. Even with these growth rates, some countries -- like Indonesia or the Philippines -- have yet to achieve their pre-1997 levels of GDP. They are once again contributing about 1.7% of projected global growth for 2002, but about one-half of that growth is now coming from China.
Says Fosler: "The response to lower prices in the U.S. is to redouble the effort to use its technology lead to lower costs still further and enhance its relative competitive position. The impact of these powerful technologies more than offsets dollar strength, setting the stage for a major rebound in corporate profits in 2002-2003. This relative improvement only enhances the U.S. as a destination for foreign investment and for the resulting consolidation of global productive capacity that will deliver even more dollar strength. The strength of the dollar means that, at the moment, the dollar is the lowest-risk medium and therefore a suitable long position against which other currencies are arbitraged."
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