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http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,5-480002,00.html

Japan poised to nationalise bank
From Anatole Kaletsky in Tokyo



AT LEAST one of Japan’s “big four” banks is likely to be forcibly nationalised next month, in a move that will cost shareholders billions of pounds. The nationalisation will probably be precipitated by a “symbolic” bankruptcy of one of Japan’s 30 most indebted companies before the end of the year.
These stark predictions were made yesterday by Hiroshi Okuda, chairman of the Keidanren, the powerful Japanese industrial association, which includes the main banks among its members. Mr Okuda, who is also chairman of Toyota, the world’s second largest carmaker, suggested that the controversial move will follow from the much tougher accounting standards, introduced on October 30.

Mr Okuda seemed relaxed about the prospects of a large-scale bank failure and expressed confidence that the Government would be able to cope with the consequences without damaging the Japanese economic recovery, which was confirmed by firmer than expected GDP figures published yesterday.

Mr Okuda, whose organisation has been closely involved in the Government’s contingency plans for a financial crisis, said the Prime Minister, Junichiro Koizumi, was now “strongly supporting” major reform of the banking system.

Under reform plans published last month, Japanese banks would be forced to make much more stringent provisions than in the past for non-performing loans (NPLs) to insolvent and struggling borrowers.

The total value of NPLs in the Japanese banking system is generally thought to be at least Y50 trillion ($400 billion). If the losses resulting from these new provisions reduced a bank’s capital to below the level mandated by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the Government would inject new capital and take control. This process would amount to a forced nationalisation, wiping out or massively diluting existing shareholders.

Mr Okuda said that all of Japan’s “big four” banks would survive the reform process, but the question was “whether they will be privately owned or nationalised”. He added ominously that “of the four major banks two are very solid, but two are fragile”.

While Mr Okuda refused to identify the banks in these two groups, analysts are virtually unanimous that the two “solid” banks are Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial and Sumitomo Mitsui, while the two weaker institutions are UFJ Holdings and Mizuho Holdings, the world’s biggest bank in terms of assets.

Asked to explain why the banking crunch could come as early as next month, Mr Okuda explained that the rigorous new credit assessment regime could quickly drive one or more big borrowers into bankruptcy and this would threaten their bank lenders.

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• １４日付英・フィナンシャル・タイムズの記事&日本経団連の反論 Gaia 2002/11/15 13:52:27 (0)

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