現在地 HOME > 掲示板
> 戦争60 > 639.html
★阿修羅♪
|
現在地 HOME > 掲示板
> 戦争60 > 639.html
★阿修羅♪
|
|
| Tweet |
(回答先: 英労働党大会、イラク撤退要求の動議…亀裂が具体化(読売新聞）−−−−三国同盟の一角にヒビ 投稿者 竹中半兵衛 日時 2004 年 9 月 28 日 03:13:21)
Poll sees Labour majority slashed
Gaby Hinsliff, chief political correspondent
Sunday September 26, 2004
The Observer
Labour's majority could be slashed to 24 seats at the next election, according to a MORI poll this weekend which puts the Tories one point ahead.
Tony Blair's grip on power is looser than his apparently impregnable majority would suggest, according to the analysis, which shows a rise of two more points could even mean a hung Parliament - a far cry from the last two landslide victories.
The poll, for The Observer, was taken just after this month's messy reshuffle, at the height of infighting between the Blair and Brown camps which is unlikely to have impressed voters. It puts the Tories on 33 points, Labour on 32 and the Liberal Democrats on 25.
It also found that, while the electorate does believe the NHS, education and transport will improve over the next few years, trust in Blair has fallen by nearly 20 percentage points since 2001 and Labour's lead over the Tories on issues from health to the handling of the economy has narrowed.
Bob Worcester, chairman of MORI, warned yesterday that with Labour's conference sandwiched between a Liberal Democrat 'love-in' and a potentially subdued Tory conference, Labour's lead could yet fall further.
'I can't see the Tories carving each other up the way they usually do, but I can sure see blood on the carpet at Labour,' he says, writing for The Observer today. He concludes, however, that the poll would at least leave Labour with 'at worst the most MPs and the key to Number 10'.
Translated into election returns, on today's results the Tories would gain an extra 41 seats and the Lib Dems 20, leaving Blair with an uncomfortably narrow majority. That would mean a very different third term, with Blair unable to rely on his massive majority to force through reforms such as top-up fees.
The findings come as a separate analysis reveals the power of the 'grey vote' to topple senior Labour MPs at the next election, with at least three ministers among the top 15 Labour MPs most vulnerable to a pensioner backlash. The 'grey vote' is four times as powerful as the youth vote that parties have chased in the past: over-65s are twice as likely to vote as under-25s - and there are twice as many of them.
At high risk is Stephen Ladyman, the junior Health Minister responsible for long-term care, a crucial issue for the elderly. With a majority of only 1,792, and more than 16,000 people over 65 in his constituency, he is the 15th most vulnerable Labour MP, behind Melanie Johnson, the Public Health Minister, at 13th, and the junior Constitutional Affairs Minister Christopher Leslie at 14th.
Research from Age Concern, which compared the number of votes it would take to defeat a sitting MP with the number of over-65s in their constituency, is the first to show the potential practical impact of rising concern over issues such as dwindling pensions or the cost of long-term care.
With the first of the 17 million-strong 'baby boomer' generation now beginning to approach retirement, 'grey power' causes are expected to dominate the next election: unions are already threatening a showdown over pension provision at this week's Labour conference.
The analysis shows pensioners' votes will be crucial to Liberal Democrats' hopes of toppling senior Tories Oliver Letwin and David Davis, with the 'grey vote' in Letwin's seat 15 times stronger than his majority.
'Pensioner votes really could determine the outcome of the next election, and many of them are disillusioned,' said Michelle Mitchell, head of public affairs at Age Concern.
'The baby-boomers are still among the most likely to turn out and vote, but they're also among the most likely to switch their vote. We are saying to these older people: make your voice heard, your votes are crucial.'
Older women may form a particular battleground, with research published today by the Fawcett Society, a thinktank, showing Labour's support among females over 55 has fallen by 5 per cent since 1997. Female levels of confidence in Blair are as low as in Margaret Thatcher during her last 18 months in power.
Even among Labour women, 48 per cent were unhappy with the government. Senior women ministers, including Tessa Jowell and Patricia Hewitt, are expected to launch a fresh push this week to renew women's trust in politicians.
'The party now faces a double challenge: to overcome women's scepticism about the political process and their loss of trust in Blair,' said Katharine Rake, director of the Fawcett Society.
The impact of that collapse in trust is shown in the MORI poll. However, if it is caused by the war there is a glimmer of optimism for Blair: while 36 per cent of voters identified Iraq as a key issue facing Britain, ahead of the NHS, it fell towards the bottom of the list of issues which decide how people voted, suggesting that anger over Iraq may not necessarily translate into votes lost.
There is also little cause for Tory optimism: the party would need to be 14 points ahead now to win the next election. Only one in four voters is happy with the way Michael Howard does his job and he is making little inroads into the crucial 'don't knows'.
Just a month ago MORI put Labour on 36, four points clear of the Tories.
---------------------
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/politics/story/0,6903,1312971,00.html
題名には必ず「阿修羅さんへ」と記述してください。