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英紙「屈辱的打撃」 イラク・年金が原因と指摘
http://flash24.kyodo.co.jp/?MID=RANDOM&PG=STORY&NGID=intl&NWID=2004071201001536
【ロンドン12日共同】参院選で自民党が民主党に敗北したことについて、英メディアは12日、「小泉純一郎首相は、目標としていた51議席に届かず、屈辱的な打撃を受けた」(フィナンシャル・タイムズ紙)、「イラクへの自衛隊派遣や年金問題で国民の支持が離れた」(BBCテレビ)などと報じた。
同紙は「小泉離れが始まっている」とのエコノミストの意見を紹介。選挙結果は政権交代には直結しないものの「2007年までに予定される衆院選のリトマス試験紙だった」と位置付け、自民党退潮の傾向が強まると分析した。
英銀アナリストは同紙に対し「首相は結果として党内の意見に譲歩せざるを得ない。党内の守旧派と戦うことができない弱い首相になるかもしれず、人気の低下につながる」と指摘している。
BBCテレビは東京選挙区で元キャスター蓮舫氏が当選した様子を紹介し、民主党の躍進を伝えた。
Koizumi dealt heavy blow in Japanese poll
By David Ibison in Tokyo
Published: July 11 2004 19:05 | Last Updated: July 12 2004 2:27
Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic party and its leader, prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, were dealt a humiliating blow in Sunday's parliamentary elections after failing to reach their target of winning 51 of the 121 seats available.
Projections from Japanese media - ahead of the announcement of official results on Monday - indicated the outcomes for almost all seats. They suggested the LDP had won 49 seats while the Democratic Party of Japan, the main opposition, had won 50 seats.
The election was for Japan's upper house and will not lead to a change of government. But the poll is a litmus test of the electorate's changing attitude towards the LDP ahead of general elections due by the end of 2007.
The stock market dropped four days last week after polls indicated the LDP may fare badly in the election. Foreign investors have been strong advocates of the measures taken Mr Koizumi to tackle Japan's structural problems - especially in the debt-laden banking industry - and have been the largest investors in the Japanese market rally.
The preliminary results mean the LDP, alongside its coalition partner the New Komeito party, will retain control of the upper house, but voters sent a message they are disenchanted with the party and its leader.
"The gloss has started to come off Koizumi," said Paul Sheard, chief economist at Lehman Brothers.
Support for the LDP was undermined by Mr Koizumi's involvement in a pensions contributions scandal, badly timed legislation introduced as the scandal was brewing that increased public pensions contributions while reducing benefits, and unease at the Japanese presence in Iraq.
The combination of these issues has reduced Mr Koizumi's approval rating from a high of about 90 per cent after he became prime minister in 2001 to about 40 per cent in the days leading up to Sunday's vote.
Mr Koizumi was elected on a reformist platform and has neutralised anti-reformers in the LDP by emphasising his popularity with the electorate. The decline in his support removes his trump card and may embolden those he has termed "the forces of resistance" to challenge his leadership. "His moral authority will be much diminished," Mr Sheard said.
The weakening of Mr Koizumi's position within the LDP also threatens to slow the pace of the economic reforms he has pursued during the past three years.
"He is going to have to back off," said Shigenori Okazaki, political analyst at UBS.
"He is going to have to make concessions and, as a result, will be seen increasingly as a weak prime minister unable to fight the conservatives in his own party. This will reduce his popularity even further."
Sunday's increase in support for the DPJ was its second strong showing in an election after a similarly robust performance in last year's lower house poll and marks an important step towards its acceptance as an alternative government, analysts said.
"They need to string together four or five good results, but the DPJ is making up some good ground," said Mr Sheard. The DPJ campaigned on abolishing the LDP's controversial pensions reforms and withdrawing the country's troops from Iraq until that country is safer.