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| ★阿修羅♪ 戦争７ ★阿修羅♪ |
●私は昨日、ペンタゴン版「ウサマ・ビン・ラディンの犯行告白」
ビデオについて、つぎのような投稿をしました――
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http://asyura.com/sora/war7/msg/193.html
WA7 193 2001/12/14 16:45:08
題 名: ウサマ・ビン・ラディン「犯行告白」ビデオに対して
当然わき上がった懐疑的な反応
●ウサマ・ビン・ラディン「犯行告白」ビデオという触れ込みで
アメリカ国防省が発表したビデオに対しては、当然、まず中東
で懐疑の声が出ているようです。
●その反応を報じた米国系メディアの記事を３つ紹介しておきます。
●このビデオに関しては、大雑把に言って、つぎの三段階の
疑問が出てくるでしょう。
【1】まず、ここに写っているウサマ・ビン・ラディンは本物か？
【2】本物だとしても、ここで語っていることは「犯行告白」と
断定できるのか？
【3】これが「犯行告白」だとしても、米国の対応はこの「告白」を
根拠にして正当化できるのか？
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●このビデオについては、つぎのような批判を紹介しておきましょう。
信憑性をめぐる当然の疑問が列挙されています。―→【資料１】
●それから、こういうサイトもありますが、これについては私は
まだコメントできません。（トンデモ系のにおいを感じたので……）
PICTURE ANALYSIS OF BIN LADEN
for those interested in the recent hollywood mascinations of bin
laden and his holoform or clone.. please see
http://www.wiolawapress.com/osama.htm
the pix analysis are better than dall the words...... wio
●もうひとつ、“最新のテクノロジーでも完全な合成音声ビンラディン
をデッチ上げるのは困難だ”という主張の技術的論説記事が出ま
したので紹介しておきます。―→【資料２】
たしかに、『シュレック』のようなCGや完全音声合成であのような
テープを作るのは不可能ではないが困難でしょうね。なにしろ
作風が“シネマ・ヴェリテ”だから。（笑）
もっと正確に言えば、カネをかけてデジタル映像やデジタル画像で
迫真の作品を作っても、元がショボいからかえって嘘臭く見えるだけ。
むしろ低予算映画の要領で制作したほうが、迫真の作品になる。（笑）
つまり、影武者を何人も使っている、という噂が公然と語られて
きた人物ゆえ、もっと低予算の――大学生の自主制作映画レベル
の――資源投入でも、たとえば米国お抱えのウサマ・ビン・ラディン
替え玉俳優が仮にいれば、あのような作品をフェイクとして捏造する
ことは可能です。
ところで……
サンプラーを使った自然発話の合成に関して、この記事はずいぶんと
否定的なコメントを書き連ねていますが、この方面の技術開発は、
日本も米国に後れをとっていないと私は理解しています。
昨年だったと思いますが、ATRの合成音声による自然発話デモを
「徹子の部屋」か何かで披露していたことがあって、たんねんに
仕上げれば十分に使える水準になっていたのに感心しました。
目下、ハリウッドはあからさまな戦争協力体制に入っているので、
こうした技術の水準を公表することさえ、困難かも知れませんね。
戦争中に気象観測情報まで機密扱いになったのと同じ事情で。
しかし、この戦争でブラックユーモア映画だった『Wag the Dog』の
現実化に拍車がかかったわけだから――なにしろペンタゴンと
ホワイトハウスは「心理戦争」の重要性をあからさまに主張して
いますから――音声や画像のモーフィングが合成技術は今後
数年間で格段な進歩とコストダウンを遂げるでしょう。つまり、
ペンタゴンあたりが巨費を投じて用いている軍事用の“騙し技術”
が、民生用として急速に普及していくでしょうね。
その結果、ますます俳優やスタントマンの活躍できる領分は狭まる
かも知れないが、その分、低予算映画の迫真性がかえって評価
されるかも……。（笑）
……ところで、この技術論評を読んで思い出すのは、第二次大戦中の
原爆開発のフィージビリティ・スタディの話です。日本は爆薬用ウラン
の精製は「在来手法では数十年かかるので技術的に不可能」だと
評価したけれど、米国はそれを巨額のプロジェクトにまとめて数年で
実現させてしまった。
つまり、この記事は、そうした政治的ノイズが混入した、思惑的な報道
だという側面も意識しながら、読んでおく必要があります。
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【資料１】
CIA's Funniest Home Video?
From Brasscheck
（ken@メアド省略）
12-14-1
If you have RealAudio, you can listen to some analyses of the preposterous
Osama bin Laden "confession" video.
You might detect desperation in the voices of the BBC interviewers as they
seek to dispel doubt about the video's authenticity. I did.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/olmedia/1710000/audio/_1710143_tape08_gul.ram
http://news.bbc.co.uk/olmedia/1710000/audio/_1710143_tape08_gibbons.ram
The video itself is here:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/olmedia/1705000/video/
Problems with the tape:
- Its poor audio quality (so poor many native Arabic speakers claim not to
be able to make it out) - The English language subtitles the US government
insisted putting on it before releasing it
Then there are some other practical concerns:
- Why would someone who has managed to so skillfully elude the US for years
and years suddenly become so sloppy about his security to the point that he
would permit a video of a confession to serious crime be made and then
duplicated?
(It's especially strange since the only time bin Laden has been credibly
quoted on the subject of 9-11, he categorically denied involvement in it.)
- The conversation is strangely stilted. It's almost as if it were conducted
with the purpose in mind of checking off a check list of topics that support
various cover stories that have been floated to explain the unexplainable.
"Hijackers in the dark as to their real mission" - check, "Jet fuel expected
to burn hot and cause structural damage" - check. (Too bad Osama didn't
explain how he managed to get the US air defense to stand down that day. Now
THAT would have been interesting.)
- When would bin Laden and his buddies have had the time or peace of mind to
loll about at a relaxed dinner party between September 11 and now? (When do
they say this thing was shot anyway?)
- The appearance of this video in an abandoned house just as the war appears
to the in the mop up stage is hugely convenient and therefore suspicious on
the face of it
- Why can't bin Laden's personal videographer afford a better video camera?
There's no reason for the quality of the audio to be so unclear. There's no
interfering noise and the distance between the cameraman and the speakers
does not appear to be large. If the point was to capture the statement of
responsibility in order to rally the troops with a mass duplicated video why
not shoot it properly? Surely bin Laden has the money for a proper camcorder
and thanks to a special CIA media project from the 1980s, there are plenty
of old Mujahedin around who know the ins and outs of shooting battlefield
video.
The BBC article: "Arabs split on Bin Laden tape" if read with any degree of
care will reveal that the only evidence that the tape and its translation
are authentic is the assurance of unnamed US government sources. Otherwise,
every aspect of this production is open for study.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/south
Is it me or are these guys just getting more and more preposterous in their
attempts to justify themselves? They don't even seem to be trying to make up
good lies any more.
http://www.rense.com/general18/c.htm
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【資料２】
Technology Not Good Enough to Fake Bin Laden Tape, Say Experts
By Jim Krane The Associated Press
Published: Dec 14, 2001 17:47 EST
NEW YORK (AP) - Even with the current state of digital wizardry, faking the videotape in which Osama bin Laden appears to take credit for the Sept. 11 attacks would be extremely difficult, experts said Friday.
The biggest hurdle would be mimicking the cadence and rhythm of natural human speech. Synchronizing a doctored soundtrack with existing video would also be tough. And technology that can synthesize Arabic speech is still in its infancy.
Chi-Lin Shih, a language modeling scientist at Lucent Technologies' Bell Labs, described the process as akin to reassembling a broken vase by gluing together its shards. Close scrutiny would likely reveal the cracks.
Software tools allow for elements of a person's speech to be glued together to put words in their mouths - but such a doctored recording would not sound natural to an expert listener, said Kenneth Stevens, head of the speech research lab at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Some hardline Islamic militants in Pakistan and the Middle East suggest the tape was fabricated to provide a rationale for U.S. military actions in Afghanistan. President Bush on Friday called the charge "preposterous."
Administration officials said they intentionally declined to try to enhance the video's sound or picture so as not to give detractors ammunition.
Emerging speech synthesis technology is giving computers the ability to mimic a human voice. The creators of AT&T's Natural Voices software, for example, claim the program can mimic the speech of actors now dead, such as John Wayne.
By allowing computers to analyze enough tapes of an actor's voice, the program could synthesize the voice, allowing it to make statements that Wayne never said.
Theoretically, the same could be done with bin Laden's voice, since recordings of his speech are readily available, said Lynn Shepherd, a vice president of Fonix Corp., a speech synthesis software company in Salt Lake City.
"If they had a lot of recordings of bin Laden, they could create some speech that sounded pretty good," Shepherd said.
Most such engines require a dozen or more hours of high-quality studio recordings, where a speaker is asked to make all of a language's particular combinations of sounds.
"It takes engineers months to break down all these voice fragments so that I can reproduce the language," said Bill DeStefanis, who heads speech technology for ScanSoft, Inc. of Peabody, Mass.
"The idea that the U.S. government could have done this in the space of a month is highly improbable," DeStefanis said. "With a short snippet, I might be able to fake you out, but not a long speech."
On the tape, some of bin Laden's words are unintelligible. The tape's poor sound quality could theoretically be used to mask tampering, experts said. But beyond synthesizing a voice, doctored speech would have to be synchronized video - another difficult task usually easy to spot.
Digital synchronization of sound and images is a staple of Hollywood filmmaking. In the 2000 movie "Gladiator," actor Oliver Reed died before shooting ended and the filmmakers pieced together several scenes using previously shot footage.
DeStefanis and others said, however, that fooling the trained eye is difficult.
"The human eye and ear are very good at seeing out-of-synch lips," he said.
Also, few if any of today's sophisticated speech synthesis engines have been programmed to generate bin Laden's native Arabic, said Shepherd.
"There are some low quality ones, but nothing that would be good enough,"
Shepherd said.
http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAYWOIL8VC.html
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題名には必ず「阿修羅さんへ」と記述してください。