投稿者 ドメル将軍 日時 2001 年 11 月 18 日 14:04:08:
アジア・タイムズ記事の部分訳と原文です。
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アフガンの重要エリアからのタリバンの突然の撤退と長期のゲリラ戦のための東部地方への(戦力の)集中、そして反パキスタン政権がアフガニスタンを支配するという可能性はイスラマバード−それはアメリカ合衆国のテロリズムとの戦いに賛同し、2ヵ月前にタリバンを見捨てた−にタリバンに対する隠密の援助を強いることが出来るかもしれない。
タリバンのマザルシャリフからの迅速な撤退と首都カブールとジャララバードからの劇的な撤退は、ラワルピンジ総司令部のパキスタン軍の意思決定者達、そしてイスラマバードの外務省の間で爆弾のように炸裂した。
この展開は、パキスタンの情報部が大統領に報告したものと厳しく対照的なものである。−戦争が非常に長引き、パキスタンは新しいアフガニスタン政府を創る上で、米国とその同盟国に対し交渉上強い立場を維持出来る。
こういうことは、米国の無能あるいは抵抗で変わった。 ―アフガニスタン元大統領ラバニはカブールに帰還すると宣言したと伝えられていたが、（米国は無能にも）北部同盟のカブール侵攻を止められなかった。
（中略）
情報筋はカブール陥落のニュースで緊急会議がラワルピンジで陸軍参謀総長代理のユースフ将軍によって召集されたと言う。−ムシャラフは現在米国を訪問中である。その会合では対アフガニスタンの新しい戦略的な方針が必要であると強調された。
信頼出来る情報筋によると、アフガニスタンに接しているパキスタンの−1000万人の住民の大部分がパシュトゥン人である−部族地帯がこの新しい計画に重要な役割を演ずることを示唆する：
タリバンは、部族地帯を通して支援され（必需品を）供給されてゲリラ戦を継続する。
（中略）
ＩＳＩ前長官、引退したハミッド・グル中将は『米国がパキスタンを偽り』、パキスタンの強い反対にもかかわらず『それが北部連合のカブール侵攻を促進した』と語った。
『ラバニ教授は、ロシアからの非常に強い支援を得ていた。そして、彼は是が非でも政府を政権を維持する。
ラバニが常にザヒル・シャーに対立していたことを覚えておかなければならない。彼はザヒル・シャーが政府に参加するのを許さない。
そしてまた、彼はタリバンが政府に参加することも許さない。
この状況はアフガニスタンの無秩序と内戦につながる。』
彼は、タリバンのマザリシャリフとカブールからの退却を戦略的な行動と言い、ジャララバード放棄を『策略』と言った。
『親インド、親ロシアの北部同盟がジャララバードのパシュトン人拠点へはいるだろう。そして、それはパキスタンに接している。
パキスタンは支援をそのグループまで伸ばす役をつとめることを強制されるだろう。現在の状況ではタリバンが唯一の選択肢である。』
彼はパキスタンが再び米国の計画の為にスケープゴートにされると語った。パキスタンは国連軍の傘下でその地上部隊を派遣するよう要請されるだろう。
『これは平和維持活動というよりむしろ調停活動である。何故ならアフガニスタンは完全に内戦状態だからだ』と彼は語った。
『パキスタンはパキスタン軍のアフガニスタン派兵を拒否しなければならない』と彼が付け加えた。
彼は、タリバンが東部地方を彼らの拠点として、米国が後援するテロリズムとの戦いと戦い続けると信じている。
以下略
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Pakistan boxed into Taliban corner
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - With the Taliban's sudden withdrawal from key areas in Afghanistan to concentrate in the eastern provinces for a prolonged guerrilla war, and with the likelihood of an anti-Pakistan government running Afghanistan, Islamabad could be forced into lending covert support to the Taliban, whom it ditched two months ago in favor of the United States in its war on terrorism.
The quick retreats of the Taliban from Mazar-e-Sharif and the dramatic withdrawals from the capital Kabul and Jalalabad have exploded like a bombshell among Pakistani military decision makers at general headquarters in Rawalpindi and at the Foreign Office in Islamabad.
The developments are in stark contrast to what the Pakistani intelligence services had reported to President General Pervez Musharraf - that the war would drag on much longer and that Pakistan would maintain a strong bargaining position with the US and its allies over the composition of a new Afghan government.
All this has changed with the US's inability - or reluctance - to stop the Northern Alliance from taking over Kabul, where it is already reported that on Wednesday former Afghan president Burhanuddin Rabbani will return to pronounce himself the head of the territories now under the control of the anti-Taliban opposition. Deposed by the Taliban in 1996, the ethnic Tajik Rabbani is the political leader of the Northern Alliance and is still recognized as Afghanistan's president by the United Nations and most countries.
Although the United Nations is trying its best to install a broad-based government in Afghanistan, Rabbani has already made a move to set up an interim administration. It is said that General Mohammad Fahim will act as minister of defense, Abdullah Abdullah as minister of foreign affairs and Yunus Qanooni as minister of the interior. Warlords such as Rashid Dostum and Ismail Khan are expected to be left in control of the areas they have captured, Mazar-e-Sharif and Herat respectively.
This pretty much leaves Pakistan out in the cold as this power configuration is made up mainly of three different ethnic groups: Tajiks, who comprise some 25 percent of the population; Hazaras, about 19 percent; and Uzbeks, with about 6 percent. Pashtuns, with 40 percent of the population, dominate central and southern Afghanistan, the home base to the leadership of the Taliban and Al-Qaeda, the network of Osama bin Laden.
Rabbani has said that he would welcome former monarch Zahir Shah, but as a "private citizen". Yet Rabbani was the founding father of the Afghan resistance movement, which began in the days of Zahir Shah. Rabbani is well documented as saying that Zahir Shah would be hanged for war crimes if he ever returned to Afghanistan, and he has never softened this stance.
In this perspective, it appears that Afghanistan will continue with its centuries-old traditions under which there will be no participation in government on the basis of anything but "might is right" and that the only way in which Pakistan can have any sway in balancing unfriendly forces across its border is to lend support to the Taliban to help keep a guerrilla war going.
Sources say that on the news of the fall of Kabul an emergency meeting was convened in Rawalpindi, headed by General Yusuf, the vice chief of army staff - Musharraf is currently on a visit to the US. At the meeting it was emphasized that a new strategic policy for Afghanistan is needed.
Well-placed sources suggest that in the new scheme of things the Pakistani tribal belt bordering Afghanistan, home of 10 million mostly Pashtun people, will play an important role: the Taliban will continue to fight their guerrilla war, with backup and supplies being ferried from Pakistan through the tribal areas to them.
Meanwhile, Asia Times Online has canvassed the views of some prominent Pakistanis across a wide spectrum of interests, and they all believe that Pakistan has lost ground in the region.
Former ambassador Hussain Haqqani said that Pakistan's single-track Afghan policy was now in tatters. He said Pakistan had not even contemplating what might happen should Kabul fall into the hands of a group other than the one it favored. Now all of the options that Pakistan would want to see happen, including the Zahir Shah (former king) one, are at the mercy of the Northern Alliance and its backers in Washington and London.
Now Pakistan, says Hussain Haqqani, will have to play a passive role as even though some of the former warlords will be blessed with Western intelligence and will have a role in the future setup of Afghanistan, the Northern Alliance will not be willing to accommodate them. This will lead to a situation in which the prospects of civil war cannot be ruled out.
The former director-general of the Inter-Services Intelligence, retired lieutenant-general Hamid Gul, said that the US had deceived Pakistan and it had facilitated the Northern Alliance entry into Kabul despite Pakistan's strong opposition.
"Professor Rabbani has had very strong support from Russia and he will retain government at all costs. It should be kept in mind that Rabbani has always been against Zahir Shah, he will not allow him into any broad-based government. Neither will he allow the Taliban to be a part of any government. This situation will lead to anarchy and civil war in Afghanistan."
He termed the Taliban retreat from Mazar-e-Sharif and Kabul as strategic moves, and called losing Jalalabad a "gambit". "Now pro-Indian and pro-Russian Northern Alliance forces will enter into the Pashtun stronghold of Jalalabad, which borders Pakistan. Pakistan will be forced to play a role in extending support to a group, and in the present circumstances the Taliban would be the only choice."
He said that Pakistan would again be made a scapegoat for US designs, and it would be asked to send its ground troops into the country under the umbrella of UN forces. "This would be a peacemaking operation rather than peacekeeping operation because otherwise there would be complete civil war in Afghanistan," he said. Pakistan should refuse to send its troops into Afghanistan, he added.
He believed that the Taliban would make the eastern provinces their stronghold and continue to struggle against the US-sponsored war against terrorism in the region.
Liaquat Baloch, the deputy leader of the Jamaat-i-Islami (JI), the premier fundamentalist party in Pakistan, said that the present situation was the result of Pakistan's misguided policies that had allowed a pro-Indian government to be installed on Pakistan's western borders [Kabul] at a time when Pakistan's armed forces were already engaged with its arch-rival on the eastern borders. He maintained that it was Pakistan's support for the US position that had enabled anti-Taliban forces to capture Kabul. He added that the US exploited Musharraf for its own designs in the region, and had dragged Afghanistan into a prolonged civil war.
A former senator and leader of the Pakistan People's Party, Taj Haider, said that the possible victimization of the Taliban by Northern Alliance forces was the main cause for concern. "Though they [Taliban] consider me an infidel, [Taj Haider comes from a hardcore Marxist school of thought and hails from a Shia family] my heart is crying for them. What they have done may be wrong, but once they surrendered the world community should raise its voice for them for better treatment."
He maintained that Pakistan had closed all doors to Northern Alliance forces, and even when their former army leader, Ahmad Shah Masood, was assassinated in September, Pakistan did not offer its condolences.
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