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回答先: 豪・米の情報機関、中国が9月ごろ台湾の高雄港封鎖を計画と確信＝豪紙（ロイター） 投稿者 FP親衛隊国家保安本部 日時 2000 年 5 月 17 日 11:21:00:
FASの報告に対するカウンターともとれますし、
中国に対するサインともとれますねぇ。。。
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Revealed: China's plot to blockade Taiwan
By DAVID LAGUE, Defence Correspondent
China is planning to blockade Taiwan's key port about
September this year, according to secret United States
intelligence forecasts shared with Australia.
Australian intelligence sources have told the Herald that
the threat to the port of Kaohsiung, which carries 66 per
cent of the island's trade, was aimed at forcing Taiwan to
open early talks on reunification with the mainland.
It is understood the US is taking the blockade preparations
seriously as fears mount in Beijing that Taiwan is drifting
steadily towards independence despite mainland threats of
war.
"The Americans seem to think it is possible or even likely,"
one senior Australian Government official said.
Some analysts have played down the prospect of conflict
across the Taiwan Strait on the grounds that it would harm
all sides but a number of senior Australian Government
intelligence analysts have said the danger of conflict is
increasing.
The mainland regards Taiwan as a renegade province and has
warned it will use force if it delays talks on re-unification
indefinitely. The election of a key figure in the Taiwanese
independence movement, Mr Chen Shui-bian, as the island's
President in March has increased pressure on Beijing to bring
Taipei to heel.
China's Communist Party leadership has made the recovery of
Taiwan a national priority since the return of Hong Kong and
Macau.
The frustration for Beijing is that while it strives to build
up the military muscle to dominate the island, Taiwan
becomes more democratic and enhances its international
stature and legitimacy.
It would be almost impossible for the US and its allies,
including Australia, to abandon Taiwan to its fate if it came
under mainland attack. However, it is possible that a trade
blockade could be mounted without an overt military threat
to Taiwan.
A Pentagon study on the military balance across the Taiwan
Strait last year warned that despite improvements in
Taiwan's anti-submarine forces, China would "retain the
capability to interdict Taiwan's sea lanes of communications
and blockade the island's principal maritime ports".
Kaohsiung is the third biggest container port in the world,
according to 1998 shipping figures. Last year, more than
18,000 ships were loaded with about 300 million tonnes of
cargo at the port on Taiwan's south-west coast, facing the
mainland.
It is understood US intelligence analysts believe it could be
relatively easily blockaded because there are only two
narrow channels deep enough for ships to enter and leave the
harbour. China's submarines could ensure cargo ships were
denied these channels or even sink a ship in the main
approach to Kaohsiung used by the biggest vessels.
Even a threat to blockade could be enough
to send insurance
premiums soaring and deter some shipping lines - a serious
blow to a manufacturing economy heavily dependent on
international trade.
Intelligence sources say Beijing could attempt to justify a
blockade on the grounds that almost every major
international government acknowledges its claim over
Taiwan.
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