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A View of Non-NPT Nuclear States from Space:
Nuclear and Missile Facility Satellite Images and
Their Implications for the NPT
When: Tuesday, May 16, 2000 at 1:00 PM.
Where: UN Correspondents Association Club, 3rd Floor, UN Secretariat
Who: Tim Brown, Analyst for the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) Public Eye Project
Michael Kraig, Consultant on South Asia for the FAS Public Eye Project
Dan Plesch, Director, British American Security Information Council (BASIC)
For the first time outside government intelligence agencies, the FAS Public Eye Project is using photographs
obtained from the SpaceImaging Corporation IKONOS satellite to show the full scope of Indian and Pakistani
nuclear programs. Along with declassified photos of Israeli facilities, the images visibly demonstrate that the three
NPT holdouts have committed themselves to long-term and highly-integrated networks of military institutions
geared towards the full deployment of nuclear weapons. "The NPT Review Conference has failed to come to grips with
this reality, and the future of all non-proliferation efforts hinge on this fact," says John Pike of the Federation of
American Scientists. FAS consultant Michael Kraig says, "The international community痴 exclusive focus on rolling
back these nuclear programs has blinded policymakers to policy options that would reduce the risk of nuclear
escalation in future regional crises. The world community should not assume that immediate de-nuclearization
through the NPT regime is the only palatable foreign policy, or that it is the policy most likely to achieve concrete
results."
India
The Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) near Trombay is the nerve center
of the entire nuclear weapons program and includes facilities for weapons
design; plutonium production (Dhruva and Cirus research reactors); plutonium
separation; conversion of fissile materials into metallic form for warheads;
and bomb core fabrication. BARC also houses extensive chemical production
plants to support the entire fuel cycle, as well as a facility for extracting
tritium from heavy water for increasing the explosive power of
thermonuclear weapons. BARC personnel were instrumental in designing and
building the nuclear devices that were tested in May 1998.
The Hyderabad Defence Research Complex at Kanchanbagh houses the primary
institutions responsible for developing and testing the new Agni-II IRBM and
the short-range Prithvi missiles, both of which are leading candidates for
nuclear warhead delivery vehicles. With help from over 20 other institutions
and partners outside the Complex, the Defense Research and Development
Laboratory (DRDL) represents the R&D component of the missile programs.
Also in the Hyderabad Complex, the government-owned Bharat Dynamics, Ltd.
manufactures the Prithvi with assistance in special metals from the Defense
Metall
urgical Research Laboratory (DMRL) and the government-owned special
metals industry Mishra Dhatu Nigam Ltd. (MIDHANI). Satellite images reveal that India has recently
expanded a storage area that is almost certainly devoted to rocket propellant and fuel assemblies for
these missile systems. Images also confirm that DRDL has erected a large facility dedicated to
ground-based stress testing and flight simulations involving the actual missile components.
Pakistan
Satellite imagery of the 40-70 Megawatt plutonium production reactor at Khushab and nearby
medium-range missile base at Sargodha indicates that construction of the Khushab reactor is
essentially complete, and that Pakistan has built a dozen garages for mobile missile launchers and
associated logistics support vehicles near the Sargodha Central Ammunition Depot. Dedicated
maintenance facilities and launch crew housing have also been built nearby.
New photographs of the Kahuta uranium enrichment complex reveal
significant additions in the last 10 years. The Kahuta complex is now a
multipurpose "one-stop shopping" weapons production area, with expansion
and refurbishment of existing uranium enrichment facilities and construction
of new sites for development and ground testing of the Ghauri II/Nodong
intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM).
According to FAS Space Policy Project Director John Pike, "Pakistan has laid
the groundwork for a force of dozens of nuclear-tipped missiles capable of
striking Indian cities and military bases. But Pakistan is in danger of having most of its nuclear eggs
in just two baskets, which would make tempting targets for pre-emptive Indian attack in time of
crisis."
Israel
FAS was unable to acquire recent high-resolution satellite imagery for
Israel because the U.S. Congress passed a 1997 law barring the
commercial acquisition of photographs by American-owned countries.
Older declassified photos show that the Dimona site houses a heavy
water reactor and an installation for processing spent fuel to produce
weapons-grade plutonium. Israel probably has also used the same site
to produce the tritium and lithium deuteride necessary for
thermonuclear weapons. Estimates of the potential arsenal vary widely
between 50-60 weapons to 200 or even 400 warheads, with some
estimates including both tactical and thermonuclear missile weapons as well as gravity bombs. At the Sedot Mikha
base 45 km south of Tel-Aviv, the Israeli Air Force reportedly has three squadrons equipped with up to 50 Jericho I
nuclear-tipped MRBMs. The Jericho I has been successfully tested several times and is fully operational.
News media wishing to reproduce this co
pyrighted imagery for publication or broadcast should contact Mark Brender
at SpaceImaging at 703-558-0309 or Amy Opperman at 303-254-2078.
題名には必ず「阿修羅さんへ」と記述してください。