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Independent
House-price figures signal the boom has finally ended
http://money.independent.co.uk/property/homes/story.jsp?story=362022
By Rachel Stevenson
16 December 2002
-要約-誤訳御免-
最近になり初めて、イギリスの不動産価格の高騰の終わりを告げる確かな徴候が見られる様になって来ている。過去６月間で、最も高かった地域の物件の価格の下落が著しい。
Bank of Englandのトップ、Mervyn Kingは、『家価格のインフレは維持出来ない物で、なんとか沈静化出来ない場合、イギリス経済に深刻な影響をもたらす可能性を否定出来ない。』と先月に警告していた所だ。『利率を上げてでも消費者の金の借り入れを抑制する事も辞さない。』とも同銀行は言っていた。
特にロンドンの高級な物件に提示価格の下降が見られており、地方都市の物件も、これまでの例からすれば、追随する可能性が大きいとの事。
John Wriglesworthによれば、まだ今の所、来年市場がどうなるか見極めるのは難しい物の、（イギリスの）一部の地域と一部の物件の種類、特にロンドンの高価格物件に価格の低下が見られるだろうと予想されているらしい。
-Body-
The first reliable signs that Britain's house-price boom is over are contained in new figures that show asking prices in some of the most expensive areas have fallen significantly in the past six weeks.
Amid predictions from a number of leading economists that the property market will suffer a marked downturn next year, prices in some of London's most wealthy areas have fallen 14.4 per cent since September.
Mervyn King, named as the next governor of the Bank of England, warned last month that the rate of house-price inflation was unsustainable and that the market would have to cool down or Britain would risk a dip into recession. The Bank has said it is not afraid to increase interest rates to force a slow in consumer borrowing.
Analysis by Rightmove, which logs details of 30 per cent of all home sales, shows that asking prices in Greater London have fallen 3.5 per cent in just six weeks, taking the average price to ｣241,358. Sellers in the borough of Kensington and Chelsea have experienced an average drop in the value of their properties in the past three months of ｣62,000.
While prices are still rising elsewhere, trends in the London market traditionally set the pace for the rest of the country. "The boom is indisputably over," one housing commentator said yesterday.
The survey is the latest in a series of downbeat messages from mortgage lenders and economists. Bradford & Bingley, the mortgage bank, said last week that it was already seeing a moderation in price rises, particularly in London. It expects only single-digit growth next year, compared to the 25 per cent rise this year. Its chief executive, Christopher Rodrigues, believes buyers have been "irrationally exuberant" in 2002 and that some common sense is creeping back in to stabilise prices.
Roger Bootle, of Capital Economics, also believes the housing market is heading for a fall. A report from Capital Economics to be published this week will warn of a fall in prices of 10 per cent from today's levels, saying they could ultimately slump by as much as 30 per cent.
Across Britain, Rightmove says asking prices rose over the past four weeks by just 0.6 per cent, to reach ｣156,084, which still means a rise of 22.1 per cent over the year. The north of England and East Anglia are still seeing growth in prices, but those areas traditionally lag behind London and the South-east, where job losses and lower bonuses in the City have already hit hard. Asking prices in cheaper London boroughs, such as Enfield, Ealing and Islington, are continuing to rise.
The Rightmove index tracks new sale instructions, unlike the surveys from the mortgage lenders Nationwide and Halifax that measure mortgage applications and exclude properties over ｣1m. It is at this end of the market that prices have fallen the most. Estimates of asking prices for properties above ｣1m show they fell 5 per cent in November.
The figures also show a general decline in activity in the housing market, with fewer properties coming on sale and a reduction in the number of viewings. In early September, about 44,000 houses were being put up for sale. This has fallen to 28,000 in early December, although this is largely attributed to a seasonal slowdown.
John Wriglesworth, an independent housing analyst, said: "The boom is indisputably over. We're moving into the pre-Christmas lull, particularly in London. Lenders' house-price indexes are not yet showing this, as their latest figures relate to properties that went on the market in the late summer or early autumn, when the market was much more buoyant.
"What remains difficult to call is whether house prices will pick up in the new year. Declines in some areas and types of property, particularly the top end in London, are to be expected."
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