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http://www.msnbc.com/news/793217.asp?cp1=1
U.S. changing theory on bin Laden's fate
Intelligence officials increasingly convinced terror mastermind is dead
By Robert Windrem
and Tammy Kupperman
NBC NEWS
WASHINGTON, Aug. 13 - Nine months since the last confirmed sighting of
Osama bin Laden, the U.S. government has no evidence that the terror
mastermind is still alive, U.S. officials told NBC News. Indeed, some
intelligence analysts now believe that the man accused of plotting the Sept.
11 attacks may be dead.
"IT'S STILL NOT compelling," said one U.S. official, speaking on
condition of anonymity. "But there are more converts to the 'He's dead'
school as time goes by without seeing or hearing from him."
"It's not new information," said a second official, also requesting
anonymity. "It's new analysis based on his past record."
While officials originally believed bin Laden had "gone to ground"
last December, cutting off all communications during the U.S. war in
Afghanistan, many are increasingly leaning toward the theory that the
al-Qaida leader died or was killed sometime last year. Still, the leading
theory remains that he is alive in the border area between Afghanistan and
Pakistan.
"We still haven't reached that threshold," said the first official,
who noted that reports of sightings continue to come in. "We still get
reports that he has been seen, but they are not confirmed and there has been
nothing that says, 'Holy [expletive]!'" said the official.
The last confirmed sighting of bin Laden was in a videotape released
to the al-Jazeera television network on Dec. 27. However, U.S. intelligence
officials believe that tape was made in mid- to late November, because bin
Laden refers to the U.S. bombing of a mosque in the remote Afghan region of
Khost "a few days ago."
The mosque was inadvertently bombed on Nov. 16, said U.S. officials.
Another tape of bin Laden has been released since then, but officials say
they believe it was shot earlier than the tape released in December, perhaps
in early October.
LAME LEFT ARM?
In the tape released Dec. 27, bin Laden is gaunt and does not move
his left arm, which many have suggested meant that he had been wounded. U.S.
officials believe that bin Laden was in good health earlier that month, on
Nov. 9, when the tape of a "dinner party" between bin Laden and a Saudi
cleric was apparently shot. That tape, released by the Pentagon in
mid-December, showed bin Laden proudly discussing the Sept. 11 attacks. The
tape was found by U.S. troops in an al-Qaida safehouse in Jalalabad, in
eastern Afghanistan.
"There is indeed a discernible difference between those two
appearances," said the first official, "but it's anyone's guess as to
whether he was wounded between those two dates."
The period between Nov. 9, when the "dinner party" tape was
apparently recorded, and late November, when the video showing a gaunt bin
Laden was believed to be taped, was also the period of the most intense
fighting in Afghanistan. The Taliban stronghold of Mazar-i-Sharif fell on
Nov. 11 and the capital, Kabul, six days later.
Newsweek: How bin Laden got away
Officials also note that Abu Zubaydah, the highest-ranking al-Qaida
operative in U.S. custody, has told interrogators that he had not seen or
heard from bin Laden between the time he left Afghanistan in late November
and the time he was captured in Pakistan four months later.
"He says he last saw him in November," said the U.S. official. "He
thinks he is still alive, but based on what I don't know."
Since then, the officials said, there has been no confirmed
sighting of bin Laden and no confirmed intercept of his voice. A
mid-December report that bin Laden had been overheard directing troops
during the U.S. attack on Tora Bora, where one of the last concentrations of
al-Qaida fighters battled U.S. and allied Afghan forces, has since been
discounted.
The two officials said the voice had been identified by one U.S.
analyst as bin Laden's but that the voice had not been recorded and thus
could not be "voice printed" to prove or disprove it was indeed his. The
voice was overheard on a frequency not normally used by bin Laden and not
normally recorded by U.S. intelligence.
AL-QAIDA LEADER MUM
Recently, bin Laden associates, including his press spokesman, Abu
Ghaith, have been quoted by the Arab press as saying bin Laden would make an
address soon, but no such address has taken place.
"We have to wonder why he wouldn't pop out. He certainly would like
to prove to us he is still alive," said another U.S. official, who asked not
to be identified. "One school of thought has him waiting for us to declare
him dead and then, bam!, he shows up. Another school of thought thinks that
we would see him only after a successful attack if he is still alive."
The officials note that bin Laden has gone for months without making
public statements or being seen, but not for this long. In the year prior to
the Sept. 11 attacks, bin Laden had been seen three times in tapes released
by al-Qaida - in September, January and June. Since the Sept. 11 attacks,
bin Laden has been since four times, but none of the tapes can be dated
subsequent to November.
Moreover, say officials, the frequency of tape releases, even of
those believed to have been recorded prior to November, also has dropped
off. Between Oct. 1 and Dec. 27, al-Qaida released five tapes, but only one
since, in late April, and none since then.
"That is also something we find interesting," said one official.
Some officials have suggested that the tipping point in the analysis
could come next month when, as another official, this one with ties to both
the Pentagon and CIA, put it, "he would love to be able to use the
anniversary to prove he is still alive. And if we don't hear from him, I
think a lot of people will tend to believe he is dead."
Not everyone is convinced, however, that al-Qaida is targeting the
anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks.
"Al-Qaida has never been driven by anniversaries," said another
official, also speaking on condition of anonymity. "When they are ready,
they attack. That's not to say they wouldn't want to attack on Sept. 11, but
if they were ready to attack to today, would they postpone it until then to
make it more significant? We doubt it."
Robert Windrem is an investigative producer for NBC News. Producer
Tammy Kupperman covers the Pentagon.
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BIN LADEN ON TAPE
===========================
Appearances by America's most wanted man
April 17-18, 2002
The "Riverside tape," believed shot in October 2001, is shown on Arabic
language broadcasters MBC and al-Jazeera in slightly different versions. In
this tape, bin Laden praises the effects the Sept. 11 attacks had on the
U.S. economy. Also on tape: Ayman al-Zawahiri, bin Laden's chief lieutenant.
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Dec. 27, 2001
"The Gaunt Tape," so named because bin Laden is haggard and doesn't move his
left arm, is believed to have been recorded in late November 2001.
Al-Jazeera airs the tape.
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Dec. 12, 2001
Washington releases tape of the "dinner party" in which bin Laden describes
planning for the Sept. 11 attacks. Shot in mid-November, possibly Nov. 9,
2001, in Kandahar. Released by the U.S. government to all broadcasters. Also
on tape: Khaled al-Harbi, a Saudi cleric.
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Nov. 7, 2001
Bin Laden's sons play in the wreckage of a downed U.S. helicopter, believed
to have been shot in October. The tape is shown on al-Jazeera. Video later
shows up as part of a tape the U.S. government releases in December 2001.
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Nov. 3, 2001
Bin Laden, dressed in camouflage and armed with an AK-47, says in a tape
aired by al-Jazeera that Afghanistan is in a religious war. "The people of
Afghanistan had nothing to do with this matter. The campaign, however,
continues to unjustly annihilate the villagers and civilians, children,
women and innocent people." There's no indication of when the tape was shot,
but almost certainly it was within weeks, if not days, prior to its release,
since it refers to U.S. campaign in Afghanistan.
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Oct. 7, 2001
A threatening tape released at the start of the U.S. attacks on Afghanistan
and shown on al-Jazeera. It is believed to have been shot in late September
or early October. Also on tape: bin Laden spokesman Abu Ghaith, chief
lieutenant Ayman al-Zawahiri, and Mohammed Atef, bin Laden's military
commander.
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Oct. 4, 2001
The al-Qaida graduation ceremony tape. Al-Jazeera reports the tape was made
after the Sept. 11 attacks, but U.S. intelligence says it was shot in June
2001 to celebrate the merger of al-Qaida and Egyptian Islamic Jihad. Also
seen on the tape: Ayman al-Zawahiri, leader of Egyptian Islamic Jihad.
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June 20, 2001
A 98-minute al-Qaida training tape believed to have been shot at various
times -- but after the USS Cole bombing in October 2000 and before the U.S.
presidential inauguration in January 2001 - is distributed by APTN and
Reuters. Bin Laden praises the bombers of the USS Cole: "And the courage of
our youth was witnessed in Aden, where they destroyed their destroyer and
instilled fear. ... Their ships stand so arrogantly in our ports."
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Jan. 10, 2001
Tape of bin Laden celebrating the marriage of his teenage son, Mohammed, to
the daughter of Mohammed Atef, his military commander. The tape was shot the
previous day in Afghanistan. Also on the tape: Atef and Mohammed bin Laden.
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Sept. 21, 2000
Tape shown on al-Jazeera of bin Laden and three Egyptian clerics calling for
the release of Abdul Rahman, a blind sheik imprisoned in the United States.
It's believed to have been filmed sometime between March and May 2000. Also
on the tape: Ayman al-Zawahiri, bin Laden's lieutenant, and Rifai Ahmad
Taha, a leading figure in the armed Egyptian group, Jamaa Islamiya, and
Assad Allah, son of Sheikh Abdel Rahman. Shown on Al-Jazeera.
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Jan. 15, 1999
In an interview with al-Jazeera, bin Laden praises those who carried out the
August 1998 Africa embassy bombings, saying the U.S. Embassy in Nairobi,
Kenya, was hit because "because it was the major U.S. intelligence center in
East Africa." More of the interview with al-Jazeera is broadcast on June 10.
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May 28, 1998
In an interview with ABC's John Miller, bin Laden praises Ramzi Yousef and
Wali Khan Amin Shah, convicted in the Day of Hate airliner plot, saying
"America will see many youths who will follow Ramzi Yousef." Bin Laden also
praises the bombers of the Khobar Towers U.S. barracks in Saudi Arabia. "We
predict a black day for America and the end of the United States as United
States ... Allah willing." Mohammed Atef also seen on the tape.
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August 10, 1997
In an interview with CNN's Peter Arnett, bin Laden praises the bombing of
the U.S. barracks in Saudi Arabia. "If the American government is serious
about avoiding the explosions inside the U.S., then let it stop provoking
the feelings of 1,250 million Muslims," he says.
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Source: NBC News
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