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★阿修羅♪
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(回答先: フセイン体制打倒への道筋協議 元イラク軍幹部ら〔朝日新聞〕 投稿者 FP親衛隊国家保安本部 日時 2002 年 7 月 13 日 22:42:30)
「米英の外交官らがオブザーバーとして討議に加わっている」との一言が、意味深だね。しかし、「オブザーバー」と言いながら、積極的に「討議」する事はできないのではないかね。オブザーバーは、オブザーバーに過ぎ無いのでね。
そして、その手の会合が「体制打倒への道筋」の議論をしたと言えるかどうかね。それは、それ程簡単に言える事では無い。イギリス政府も、日本で報じられている程、この計画に乗り気では無いみたいでね。これしきの会合が、フセイン政権を崩壊させるとも思え無い。アメリカ政府の焦りが感じられる会合ではあるとしてもね。
反フセイン派が成功する条件は、アメリカの「秘密工作員」がどれだけイラク辺境地帯に「アメリカドル」をばら撒く事ができるかにかかっているね。しかし、辺境地帯が貧困だと言っても、その原因を作ったアメリカの「手先」がばら撒くドルがすんなりと受け容れられるわけでは無い。「転覆工作」が簡単で無い事は、言うまでも無い。
この会議については、イギリスのインデペンデントが報じた記事を読むほうが判りやすいみたいだね。それによると、どうも亡命反フセイン「諸派」は、アフガン北部同盟と同じで、体制打倒の準備が出来る情況でも無いみたいだ。ペンタゴンがあれこれとリークする、各種の侵攻計画バリエーションも、どうも世論の動向を探る観測気球に過ぎ無いね。それらすべてが、イラクとアフガンを混同しているみたいだ。つまり、文字通り「アフガンモデル」の踏襲に過ぎ無いね。どうも、アメリカと衛星諸国のイラク侵攻は、成功しそうに無いね。
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/politics/story.jsp?story=314519
Exiles gather in London to plot Iraq revolution
By Kim Sengupta 13 July 2002
© 2002 Independent Digital (UK) Ltd
Many have been accused of being adept only at getting money out of gullible Americans. They are a disparate bunch who know more about the price of a BMW than the situation in Baghdad.
But with the insistent drumbeat from Washington of a forthcoming Iraq invasion, the London conference of the exiled enemies of Saddam Hussein has become the sudden focus of international attention.
The meeting has brought together 300 opposition leaders abroad for the first time. The gathering, in the genteel surroundings of Kensington town hall, is meant to produce nothing less than a blueprint for an alternative government to that of President Saddam: democratic; inclusive of differing ethnic, religious, and political groupings; eschewing the use of weapons of mass destruction; and working for the good of the man on the Basra omnibus.
American and British diplomats will be present, but, they say, purely as observers, not attempting to influence the outcome. Critics, including some MPs, say this is risible. The exile movement, they claim, is a creature of London and Washington security services and will do their bidding.
But in reality this is not quite the case. The organisers say they are totally united on one matter, that President Saddam should not be replaced by another military strongman. But in Washington there are powerful voices who believe that a strong leader is precisely what is needed post-Saddam to ensure Iraq does not descend into secessionism, strife, and a haven for Islamist terrorism. That, after all, was one of the reasons the allies did not try harder to topple him at the end of the Gulf War.
The Iraqi military will be well represented at the meeting with around 70 former officers attending. But there is some interest in one general staying away while being quite vocal. Major General Nizar Khazraji, the former chief of staff of the Iraqi Army, who defected in 1995, has decided to stay at his home in Denmark.
His name has been linked to a plan floated recently for a council of former military officers to form a temporary administration following the fall of President Saddam. However, a Kurdish group is seeking to have General Khazraji prosecuted for allegedly ordering the use of chemical weapons against Kurdish civilians.
The man who was once favoured by the Americans as a civilian leader of Iraq is Ahmed Chalabi, the leader of the Iraqi National Congress umbrella group. Allegations of financial irregularities have been levelled at Mr Chalabi. He and his group have received millions of dollars from the US.
Sharif Ali bin Hussein, another banker, and a cousin of the assassinated King Feisal II, is the head of the London-based Constitutional Monarchy Movement. However, his plans for Iraq returning to a monarchy have been hit with the reported arrest of the exiled crown prince, Prince Adil Mohammed ibn Feisal, in Morocco on charges he had false identity papers.
There is little chance of overthrowing President Saddam or reconciliation afterwards without the two Kurdish factions, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), and their leaders, Massoud Barzani and Jalal Talabani, will not be at the meeting.
Officials of the Iraqi Communist Party, which enjoys support in Iraq and has been among the more effective opponents of the regime, have been welcomed in Washington. This was not an American change of view about "godless communism", but an attempt to improve the paucity of knowledge about Iraq. That lack of knowledge is unlikely to be rectified by the conference.
題名には必ず「阿修羅さんへ」と記述してください。