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米株は著しい調整へ、ワールドシリーズごろ再投資を
グッゲンハイム
John Gittelsohn
2017年4月13日 09:47 JST
弱気相場になるとはみておらず、強気相場は健在だとマイナード氏
トータル・リターン・ボンド・ファンドの年初来のリターンは2.4％
米資産運用会社グッゲンハイム・パートナーズのスコット・マイナード氏は、トランプ米大統領の政策実現能力について失望感が広がり始め、外交関係のリスクを巡る不安が高まる中で、米国株の相場が「著しい調整」に見舞われるとの見通しを明らかにした。
グッゲンハイムの最高投資責任者（ＣＩＯ）を務めるマイナード氏は、ブルームバーグテレビジョンとのインタビューで、「われわれは夏か秋の初めに著しい調整に見舞われると私は考えている。これが弱気相場になるとはみておらず、グレート・ブルマーケット（類いまれな強気相場）はなお健在だと思う」と語った。
マイナード氏は「５月に売って逃げろ」というウォール街の格言を引き合いに出し、米メジャーリーグでワールドシリーズの最初の試合が始まる10月後半ごろが、再投資にふさわしい時期だと指摘。トランプ大統領の政策や北朝鮮およびロシアとの関係、フランス大統領選を巡るかなりの不透明感がなお存在するものの、米経済は引き続き成長し、株価の上昇も続き、相場の上昇率は今後２年で最大20％に達すると予測した。
ブルームバーグが集計したデータによれば、グッゲンハイムの旗艦ファンドである「グッゲンハイム・トータル・リターン・ボンド・ファンド」の年初来のリターンはプラス2.4％と、類似するファンドの93％を上回り、上位７％に入る運用成績を残している。
原題：Guggenheim’s Minerd Says ‘Significant Correction’ Is Coming（抜粋）
https://www.bloomberg.co.jp/news/articles/2017-04-13/OOBL0G6K50XS01
債券は続伸か、トランプ米大統領が低金利支持発言−30年債入札は警戒
三浦和美
2017年4月13日 08:07 JST
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トランプ米大統領 Photographer: Olivier Douliery/Pool via Bloomberg
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米株は著しい調整へ、ワールドシリーズごろ再投資を−グッゲンハイム
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30年入札は絶対水準妙味薄れ、流れる可能性高まった−東海東京証
先物夜間取引は150円98銭で引け、前日の日中終値比８銭高
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債券相場は続伸が予想されている。トランプ米大統領の発言を受けて、前日の米国市場で長期金利が大幅低下した流れを引き継ぎ、国内債市場でも買いが先行する見通し。半面、足元の急激な金利低下を背景にこの日実施の30年利付国債入札に対する警戒感が出ている。
13日の長期国債先物市場で中心限月６月物は150円台後半から151円台前半での推移が見込まれている。夜間取引は150円98銭と、前日の日中終値比８銭高で引けた。
東海東京証券の佐野一彦チーフ債券ストラテジストは、前日の米国市場は株安・長期金利低下、ドル安・円高の展開となり、「これまでのリスクオフの動きに加え、トランプ大統領の発言が働いた」と指摘。「円債相場は今日も続伸」と予想する。
現物債市場で長期金利の指標となる新発10年物国債の346回債利回りは、日本相互証券が公表した前日午後３時時点の参照値0.015％を下回る水準での推移が見込まれている。佐野氏はこの日の予想レンジを0.005％〜0.02％としている。
トランプ米大統領
トランプ米大統領 Photographer: Olivier Douliery/Pool via Bloomberg
12日の米債相場は上昇。米10年債利回りは前日比６ベーシスポイント（bp）低下の2.24％程度。トランプ大統領が米紙ウォールストリート・ジャーナル（ＷＳＪ）とのインタビューで、低金利政策を支持したほか、イエレン米連邦準備制度理事会（ＦＲＢ）議長の再指名に関して可能性を残したことが手掛かりとなった。
30年債入札
財務省はこの日、 30年利付国債の価格競争入札を実施する。54回債のリオープン発行で、表面利率は0.8％に据え置かれる見込み。発行予定額は前回と同じ8000億円程度となる。
30年物の54回債利回りは前日に一時0.805％と、新発債として２月28日以来の低水準を付けた。東海東京証の佐野氏は「30年債入札は絶対水準妙味が薄れた分、流れる可能性が高まっただろう」とみる。
三菱ＵＦＪモルガン・スタンレー証券の稲留克俊シニア債券ストラテジストは、「金利水準は低下してきた。例年スロースタート傾向の生保勢が、期初から積極的に買い進むレベルではないようにみえる。また、25年超は日銀による国債買い入れが発行額対比で相対的に少ないゾーン。こうした点を考慮し、警戒的にみておきたい」と指摘。「入札結果の弱さは超長期債にとって一定の重し」としながらも、「中長期債や先物の底堅さは今日も変わらない」とみている。
過去の30年債入札結果はこちらをご覧下さい。
https://www.bloomberg.co.jp/news/articles/2017-04-12/OOBJNV6JIJWC01
シンガポール、１−３月ＧＤＰは前期比年率1.9％減−マイナス成長に
David Roman
2017年4月13日 09:33 JST
シンガポール経済は１ー３月（第１四半期）に前期比年率ベースでマイナス成長となり、やや勢いを失った。
シンガポール通産省が13日発表した１ー３月期の国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）速報値は前期比年率1.9％減。昨年10−12月（第４四半期）は同12.3％増だった。ブルームバーグがまとめたエコノミスト14人の予想中央値は1.8％減だった。前年同期比では2.5％増と、ブルームバーグ調査の予想中央値（2.6％増）を下回った。
部門別では経済の約３分の２を占めるサービス業が前期比年率2.2％減。製造業は同6.6％減、建設業は同5.4％増だった。
原題：Singapore’s Economy Contracts Annualized 1.9% in First Quarter（抜粋）
https://www.bloomberg.co.jp/news/articles/2017-04-13/OOBNRK6K50Z901
ブロックチェーンは金融サービスをどう変えているのか
アレックス・タプスコット,ドン・タプスコット：ノースウエスト・パッセージ・ベンチャーズのＣＥＯ
2017年4月13日
本記事では、『ブロックチェーン・レボリューション』の著者らが、ＩＣＯ（新規コイン公開）という新たな資金調達のトレンドを概説する。
世界の金融システムは、1日に何兆ドルも動かし、何十億もの人々にサービスを提供している。だが、多くの問題を抱えてもいる。手数料や手続きの遅延によるコスト増、重複的で煩わしいペーパーワークによる摩擦、不正や犯罪の機会などだ。
何しろ、決済ネットワーク、証券取引、送金サービスなどを扱う金融仲介機関の45％が毎年、経済犯罪の被害に遭っているのだ。この数字（経済犯罪率）は、世界経済全体では37％、専門的サービス業界では20％、テクノロジー業界では27％に留まっている（英語報告書）。規制順守のためのコストの増加が、銀行にとって最大の懸案事項であり続けていることは驚くに当たらない。そして、そのコストは最終的に消費者が負担することになる。
そこで、ある疑問が呈される。金融システムは、なぜこれほどまでに効率が悪いのだろうか。
第1に、時代遅れである。その場しのぎの業界技術と、デジタルの外見を装った書類中心のプロセスにいまだに依存している。第2に、中央集権型であるゆえに、変化を受け入れず、システム障害や攻撃に弱い。第3に、排他的であり、基本的な金融手段にアクセスしたい何十億もの人々を拒んでいる。
混乱を伴うが経済の活性化と発展には欠かせない創造的破壊を、多くの銀行は総じて避けてきた。しかし、イノベーションの行き詰まりに対する解決策が出現した。それがブロックチェーンである。
ブロックチェーンの5つの基本原理をおさらい！
1．分散型データベース
ブロックチェーン上の各参加者は、全データベースとその全履歴（台帳）にアクセスできる。誰か1人がデータや情報を管理することはない。誰もが、仲介業者を介さずに取引相手の記録を直接確かめることができる。
2．ピア・トゥ・ピア（Ｐ2Ｐ）の送信
コミュニケーションは中央ノードを介さずにＰ2Ｐで直接行われる。各ノードが情報を保存し、他の全ノードに転送する。
3．匿名性と透明性の担保
あらゆる取引とそれに伴う価値は、システムへのアクセス権を持つ者ならば誰でも閲覧できる。ブロックチェーン上の各ノード、つまりユーザーは、みずからを特定する30文字以上の英数字から成る固有のアドレスを持つ。そして匿名のままにするか、身元の証明を他者に提供するかを選べる。取引はブロックチェーンのアドレス間で行われる。
4．記録の不可逆性
ひとたび取引がデータベースに入力されてアカウントが更新されると、記録は変更できない。それらは、過去に入力された取引記録すべてと紐づいているからだ（これがまさに「チェーン」という用語の由来である）。さまざまな計算アルゴリズムと仕組みによって、データベースの記録は永続性、時系列順、ネットワーク上の全参加者への公開が担保されている。
5．計算論理
台帳のデジタル化が意味するのは、ブロックチェーンの取引が計算論理に関連づけられ、プログラム化できるということである。したがってユーザーは、ノード間での取引を自動履行するアルゴリズムと規則を構築できる。
ブロックチェーンは元々、ビットコインなどの暗号通貨の要素技術として開発された。世界中に広く分散し、数多のデバイス上で稼働する台帳であり、価値あるものすべてを記録できる。金銭、株式、債券、所有権、証書、契約、その他ほぼあらゆる資産を、安全に、私的に、Ｐ2Ｐで移動し保管できるのだ。なぜなら、ブロックチェーンで信用を担保しているのは、銀行や政府などの権力を持つ仲介機関ではなく、ネットワーク上のコンセンサス、暗号、協働、精巧なコードだからである。
企業であれ個人であれ、複数の当事者が、互いを知らなくても、仲介業者なしで合意を形成して取引を行い、価値を構築できるようになった。銀行、格付け機関、米国務省等の政府機関などに頼らずとも、当事者間で身元を確認して信用を築き、あらゆる商取引の基礎となるビジネスロジック（契約、清算、決済、記録など）を遂行できる。これは人類史上で初めてのことだ。
こうした破壊的テクノロジーの可能性と危険を前に、金融業界では、銀行、保険、監査、専門的サービスを含む多くの企業がブロックチェーンのソリューションに投資している。では、何がこれほど多くの資金と興味を引きつけているのだろうか。
ほとんどの企業は、摩擦とコストの削減機会について言及している。結局のところ、たいていの金融仲介機関は、運営上、目が回るほど複雑かつ高コストな他の仲介者群に自身も頼っているのだ。欧州のサンタンデール銀行は、年間200億ドルの節約が可能だと見積もっている。また、コンサルティング会社のキャップジェミニの試算によれば、ブロックチェーンを使ったアプリケーションによって、消費者は銀行と保険会社の手数料を年間160億ドルも節約できるという（英語サイト）。
たしかに、ブロックチェーンによって、ＪＰモルガン・チェース、シティグループ、クレディ・スイスなどの既存の金融機関（いずれもブロックチェーンに投資している）は、少ない資源でより大きな成果を上げ、業務をスリム化し、その過程でリスクを軽減できるかもしれない。しかし、機に聡いこうした視点は有益かつ往々にして必要だが、それだけで十分ということは滅多にない。（旧態依然とした金融機関とは違い）すでに根本的な構造変化を遂げているビジネスやマーケットでは、コスト削減の余地はあるのだろうか。
この点でも、ブロックチェーンは真のゲームチェンジャーとなる。経済における全参加者間の取引コストを削減することで、Ｐ2Ｐによるマス・コラボレーションを下支えするのだ。これにより、既存の組織形態のほとんどが不要となる可能性がある。
たとえば、新しいベンチャー企業が成長資金を調達する方法を考えてみよう。従来は、新規ビジネスの初期段階ではエンジェル投資家に頼り、その後はベンチャー投資家に目を向け、最終的に証券取引所で新規株式公開（ＩＰＯ）を行う。この業界は、多くの仲介者で成り立っている。たとえば投資銀行、取引所の運営機関、監査役、弁護士、クラウドファンディングのプラットフォーム（キックスターターやインディゴーゴーなど）だ。
ところが、ブロックチェーンによってこの方程式は様変わりする。どんな規模の企業でも、世界中に株式を分散発行し、Ｐ2Ｐ方式で資金調達できるようになるからだ。この新しい資金調達の仕組みは、すでにブロックチェーン業界を変えつつある。ブロックチェーン企業は、2016年、従来型のベンチャー投資家から4億ドルを集めた一方、ＩＰＯならぬＩＣＯ（新規コイン公開）で2億ドル近くを調達している（英語記事）。
ＩＣＯは、単に企業の体裁で暗号通貨（トークン）を新規に発行することのみを意味するのではない。コンテンツの制作配信とデジタル著作権管理のプラットフォーム（SingularDTVなど）、分散型ベンチャーファンド（ＤＡＯなど）、ＩＣＯへの投資とデジタル資産の管理を容易にする新しいプラットフォーム（ICONOMIなど）といったサービスも関わっている。
すでに現在、ＩＣＯの強固なパイプラインが存在する。たとえばCosmosは、世界中のあらゆるブロックチェーンをつなげる統合技術だ（ゆえに「ブロックチェーンのインターネット」という別名がある）。他の企業も、間違いなくこの流れに追随するはずだ。2017年には、ブロックチェーンのスタートアップ企業は、他のどの方法よりもＩＣＯによって多額の資金を調達する、というのが我々の予想だ。これは歴史的な転換点である。
既存企業もここに注目している。ニューヨークを拠点とするベンチャーキャピタルのユニオンスクエアベンチャーズ（ＵＳＶ）は、ＩＣＯを直接購入できるように投資戦略を拡大した。メンロパークにあるベンチャーキャピタルのアンドリーセン・ホロウィッツは、ＵＳＶと共同で、トークンのみを購入するヘッジファンドのポリチェーンキャピタルに投資した。業界最大手の投資機関の1社であるブロックチェーンキャピタルは最近、ＩＣＯによるトークンの発行で新規ファンドの資金を調達すると発表した。これは業界初の試みだ。
そして言うまでもなく、ゴールドマン・サックスやナスダック、インターコンチネンタル取引所（ニューヨーク証券取引所を傘下に持つ米企業）なども、ブロックチェーン企業に大型投資を行っている。
あらゆる斬新なビジネスモデルと同様に、ＩＣＯもリスクを伴う。規制制度がほとんど、もしくはまったくないのだ。デューディリジェンスと情報開示が十分ではなく、ＩＣＯ後に倒産した企業もある。「買い手の危険負担」が合い言葉となっており、初期の出資者の多くは、資金提供者というより投機家だ。
しかし、この流れを止めることはもはや誰にもできない。ＩＣＯを正しく実施すれば、資金調達の効率が向上するだけでなく、起業家と投資家の資本コストが下がり、世界の資本市場への公平な参入機会が開かれる。
ベンチャーキャピタルの世界が1年間で劇的に変わるとしたら、他にどんな変革ができるだろうか。ブロックチェーンによって、業界内の多くの複雑な仲介機能が一変する可能性がある。すなわち、身元と評価の保証、価値の移動（支払いと送金）、価値の保存（預金）、貸し借り（債権）、価値の交換（証券取引所などのマーケットプレイス）、保険とリスク管理、監査、税などの機能である。
これにより、我々の知る銀行業は終焉を迎えるのだろうか。それは、既存企業がどう反応するかにかかっている。新しい技術パラダイムを受け入れ、内側から破壊を起こす企業にとっては、ブロックチェーンは存在を脅かすものではない。
問題は、金融サービス業界の誰がこの革命を主導するかである。歴史を通じて、古いパラダイムの主導者は、新たなパラダイムの受容に苦労してきた。なぜAT＆Tはスカイプをつくれず、Visaはペイパルをつくれなかったのか。ＣＮＮは言葉を放送用に短くするのが得意なのだから、ツイッターを生み出すこともできたはずだ。ゼネラルモーターズやハーツがウーバーを始めたり、マリオット・インターナショナルがエアビーアンドビーを考案したりもできたはずである。
現代の金融を支えるインフラを、止めようのないブロックチェーン技術の波が飲み込もうとしている。過去に起きてきたパラダイムシフトと同じように、ブロックチェーンも勝者と敗者を生むだろう。この避けがたい衝突によって、旧態依然とした金融システムがあらゆる人々に繁栄をもたらすプラットフォームへ変わることを、我々個人としては望んでいる。
HBR.ORG原文：How Blockchain Is Changing Finance March 01, 2017
■こちらの記事もおすすめします
ブロックチェーンとは何か、社会をどう変えるのか――書評『ブロックチェーン革命 分散自律型社会の出現』
ブロックチェーンの破壊的影響は金融業界の枠を超える
アレックス・タプスコット（Alex Tapscott）
ノースウエスト・パッセージ・ベンチャーズのＣＥＯ。ブロックチェーン分野のスタートアップを支援している。最新刊『ブロックチェーン・レボリューション』は父との共著。
ドン・タプスコット（Don Tapscott）
トレント大学総長。トロント大学ロットマン・スクール・オブ・マネジメント非常勤教授。著書はベストセラーとなった『ウィキノミクス』など多数あり、最新刊は『ブロックチェーン・レボリューション』（息子アレックスとの共著）。2015年のThinkers50（最も影響力のある経営思想家トップ50人）では第4位に選出。
http://www.dhbr.net/articles/-/4795
https://www.capgemini.com/news/consumers-set-to-save-up-to-sixteen-billion-dollars-on-banking-and-insurance-fees-thanks-to
Consumers set to save up to sixteen billion dollars on banking and insurance fees thanks to blockchain-based smart contracts says Capgemini report
October 11, 2016 | News alert
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Paris – A report by Capgemini’s Digital Transformation Institute reveals the average consumer could save more than 500 US dollars in banking and insurance fees thanks to the emergence of a new type of smart contracts based on blockchain technology. The report draws on extensive discussions and initial trials with industry professionals, prominent smart contract start-ups and academics from the financial services sector, predicting mainstream adoption beginning 2020. However, there are a number of challenges detailed, including privacy, the security of the blockchain technology and the regulations that surround it.
So-called ‘smart contracts’ work similarly to standard written contracts in serving as a legally binding agreement based on a set of agreed terms and conditions. Where smart contracts differ is that they are electronically programmed and based on distributed ledgers such as blockchain technology, meaning they can automatically enforce actions like payments as soon as the agreed conditions have been met, and without the need for independent verification or manual processing. For instance, when buying a house, instead of the current process involving heavy documentation and manual intervention, details would be shared in a permissioned ledger smart contract network1 connecting all parties in the system. This would simplify the loan process, drive down processing charges, and result in a speedy transfer of property title to the consumer. Subsequent disbursement of loan amounts and interest payments would take place automatically as per the terms encoded in the smart contract.
While smart contracts could be used in a wide range of scenarios, the report, "Smart Contracts in Financial Services: Getting from Hype to Reality" focuses on the financial services industry, where contract technology and systems underpinned by blockchain are already in development by many major institutions such as BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, and Credit Suisse. It details three major areas where smart contracts are anticipated to have a significant impact for both consumers and organizations:
1. Retail banking: Personal loans and mortgages are set to benefit through the adoption of smart contracts. Smart contracts can help eliminate today’s paper-based appraisal and documentation processes, reducing the time involved in interacting with multiple agencies to verify applicant and property details, and in processes related to the transfer of property ownership. This could translate to an average saving of between $480 and $960, or eleven to twenty-two percents on mortgage arrangement and account fees for consumers. Meanwhile, it is estimated that banks would be able to cut between $3 and $11 billion annually by lowering processing costs in the US and EU alone.
2. Insurance: Smart contracts will speed up claims across areas such as health, motor, home and travel insurance, with fewer forms to fill out and interactions between claimants and insurers needed. A smart contract system would bring all parties in the insurance value chain – consumers, insurers, claim agents and third-party vendors – together on one platform. This would result in fast and seamless claim processing due to reduced documentation, reduced dependence on manual checks and faster settlement of dues to vendors. In the personal motor insurance industry alone, smart contracts are estimated to have the potential to result in approximately $21 billion in annual cost savings globally for insurers through reduced processing costs. Were insurers to pass even half of these savings on to consumers this would lead to an average annual saving of $45 on premiums.
3. Investment banking: In syndicated loans trading, settlement typically takes 20 days or more currently. Smart contracts could reduce the delay in processes such as documentation, buyer/seller confirmation and assignment agreement and checks such as KYC, AML and FATCA2, which are currently performed by back and middle-office staff. This could reduce the settlement cycle for corporate client from 20 days to 6-10. This could lead to an additional five percent growth in demand in future or 2 to 7 billion dollars, leading to higher income in addition to lower operational costs for the investment banks in the US and Europe. In addition, regulatory capital requirements and risk associated with delayed compensation payments during the settlement of the leveraged loan would reduce.
The broad applications of smart contracts within the financial services industry and the potential benefits to consumers have led many organizations to explore them as a matter of priority. Philippe Denis, Head of CIB Blockchain Initiatives at BNP Paribas, said: "Now is the time to start experimenting with smart contracts in a sandbox environment. By 2017, we will begin to see early-stage contracts enabling practical use-cases and also a connection to legacy platforms. By 2019 we might even begin to see consumer adoption ramping up."
Meanwhile, startups built around the idea of smart contracts are thriving. Louis Stone, Managing Director-Head of Business Development, Symbiont: "Two years ago Symbiont was started to show the transformative potential smart contracts could have on financial institutions and capital markets. In a short space of time, having proven the success of several use cases involving smart securities and syndicated loans, we’ve seen huge interest from the industry in exploring and adopting smart contracts."
Amol Khadikar, lead blockchain researcher at Capgemini’s Digital Transformation Institute, said: "Contracts have largely escaped the digitization of financial services, leading consumers to bear the financial brunt of manual, antiquated processes. We’re at a point where distributed ledger technology can, and will, drive a revolution in contracts. This will hugely benefit the industry to reduce risks, cut costs and enhance operational efficiencies. Consumers would benefit, not just financially, but also from processes that are simpler and free of many of the hassles of today’s customer experience."
Please read the full report: https://www.capgemini-consulting.com/blockchain-smart-contracts
The Digital Transformation Institute is Capgemini Consulting’s in-house think-tank on all things digital. The Institute publishes research on the impact of digital technologies on large traditional businesses. The team draws on the worldwide network of Capgemini experts and works closely with academic and technology partners. The Institute has dedicated research centers in the United Kingdom and India.
About Capgemini
With more than 180,000 people in over 40 countries, Capgemini is a global leader in consulting, technology and outsourcing services. The Group reported 2015 global revenues of EUR 11.9 billion. Together with its clients, Capgemini creates and delivers business, technology and digital solutions that fit their needs, enabling them to achieve innovation and competitiveness. A deeply multicultural organization, Capgemini has developed its own way of working, the Collaborative Business ExperienceTM, and draws on Rightshore®, its worldwide delivery model.
1A permissioned ledger smart contract system allows the participants to agree on who can create, transact, validate and view smart contracts. This is done using rules and permissions granted to the participants in the system in advance. For instance, banks can be granted rights to validate transactions; and regulators can be granted access to view transaction details and so on.
2KYC: Know Your Customer , AML: Anti-Money Laundering, FATCA: Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act
Rightshore® is a trademark belonging to Capgemini
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A revolution in entertainment…
SingularDTV is constructing the world’s first transparent database of rights and rights owners for film and television, as well as the automation of revenue and royalty payments using smart contracts and Ethereum’s blockchain. SingularDTV will address today’s lack of transparency and fundamentally change the prominence of creative accounting in the entertainment industry, with a particular focus on benefiting independent productions. Our rights management platform will empower creators by giving them back control over their creative output.
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Finance
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cryptocurrency
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CRUNCH NETWORK
Can you trust crypto-token crowdfunding?
Posted Feb 12, 2017 by Ben Dickson (@bendee983)
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Ben DicksonCONTRIBUTOR
Ben Dickson is a software engineer and the founder of TechTalks.
More posts by this contributor:
• Unlocking the potential of eye tracking technology
• How blockchain can create the world’s biggest supercomputer
In 2016, blockchain startups raised some $200 million in Initial Coin Offerings (ICO), a new form of crowdfunding based on cryptocurrency tokens. This figure might not be much compared to the billions being poured in by VCs and Kickstarter-style crowdfunding, but it shows a huge year-over-year growth for blockchain crowdsales.
Some of the startups have raked in millions of dollars with barely more than a promise and a website; several have failed to deliver on those promises.
As is with blockchain itself, expert opinion is highly polarized on the crypto–tokencrowdfunding hype, its reliability, its legality and its future. Here’s what you need to know.
How does it work?
In a nutshell, projects launch an ICO by issuing crypto-tokens on the blockchain (usually the Bitcoin or the Ethereum blockchain), giving early investors the chance to acquire tokens in exchange for cryptocurrency.
ICOs are usually limited by time or a cap on the amount of funds raised. The value and number of tokens released can be static or calculated based on the amount of funds raised.
Crypto-tokens have become an easy way for blockchain startups to fund their projects early in the development cycle, and for regular users and enthusiasts to invest in projects of potential value and have a say on how their future is shaped.
Where do crypto-tokens stand legally?
The legal classification of ICOs and crypto-tokens remains murky and a point of contention. They borrow traits from both IPOs and traditional crowdfunding (e.g. Kickstarter, Indiegogo), while at the same time they bear enough difference to avoid fitting into any of those categories.
They do not account as donations because they give crypto–token purchasers a stake in the company and a right to vote on future decisions. Neither can they be called the cryptocurrency equivalent of stocks.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and their counterparts in other countries have remained largely silent on whether crypto-tokens account as securities. A framework put forth by Coinbase, Coin Center, Consensys and Union Square Ventures tries to weigh in on the issue but stops short of providing a definite answer, part of which is due to the unregulated nature of the blockchain itself.
Others, such Preston Byrne, blockchain expert and COO at Monax, are more vocal in their dismissal of token sales as being legal at all. “Real investments are legal in nature in that they specify the rights and obligations of the parties to them and have to follow certain, entirely arbitrary formalities to be valid and binding,” Byrne said in a Slack conversation. “And they rely on the courts for their enforcement.”
Many view ICOs and crypto-token sales as fraudulent schemes for a quick money grab.
If an issuer fails to meet investors’ expectations, such as abstaining from repaying a loan, investors can then go to a court and seek performance, perfection of title to collateral or damages in order to be made whole for their losses.
“Tokens, on the other hand, usually disclaim that any legal relationship exists between the token-seller and the investor at all,” Byrne says. “Fortunately for the law, legal obligations around the marketing of investments are arbitrary and exist no matter how loudly token-peddlers may protest that ‘this time it’s different’ or that ‘blockchains represent a new paradigm.’ The difference between a legal scheme and an illegal one is whether there is a legitimate, legal investment opportunity — a real business with a legal obligation to the investor to deliver something — that underlies it.”
Byrne underlines that coin offerings often don’t follow regulations and purport not to create any legal obligations for the scheme promoter to deliver anything in return to the investor. “Indeed the scheme promoter often expressly disclaims these obligations in their offering documents,” Byrne says. “At the same time the scheme promoter, expressly or impliedly, makes it known to the investors that profits may be expected from the scheme.”
Are crypto–token projects a scam?
Many view ICOs and crypto–token sales as fraudulent schemes for a quick money grab.
Building on his previous arguments and referring to the FTC definition of pyramid or Ponzi schemes, Byrne clearly stipulates, “In my informed opinion, many ‘coin offerings’ run the risk of being seen as closer to Ponzi schemes of the past than they are to legitimate investment products of the present-day. Draping an investment scheme in advanced cryptography and Silicon Valley futurebabble won’t change that. I’m frankly stunned that some of the best minds in venture capital can‘t see what’s right in front of them for what it is.”
Byrne’s perspective is echoed by other experts, who describe them as “snake oil,” scam tokens and outright mistakes.
In fact, many crypto–token projects have failed miserably to deliver on their promises to investors. A stark example is The DAO, which raised $150 million in ICO, the largest ever, and lost a huge chunk of it to a hack, causing a huge stir in the Ethereum community.
In many cases, startups have launched their ICO without due diligence and by offering little more than a vague whitepaper and a flashy website.
“It appears that many of the groups running crypto crowdfunding/ICOs/crowdsales are often deliberately giving outlandish promises with the goal of collecting as much funds as possible, without considering the long-term trust implications, especially for people watching from outside of the crypto-economy,” says Stas Oskin, core developer at WINGS.ai, a decentralized platform that aims to address some of the problems that riddle cryptocurrency investment. “This can lead to tarnished brand images for these projects, funding difficulties in the future for the teams involved, but also an overall impression that the space is just too early to get involved in.”
But the rising skepticism hasn’t prevented companies from raising funds through crypto-funding. WINGS itself raised more than $1 million in its first round of ICO. Golem, a decentralized computing platform, raked in $8.6 million in mere minutes in a November ICO. Lisk, a blockchain application platform for JavaScript, collected 14,000 bitcoin (BTC) in its crowdfund in early 2016. And ICONOMI, a platform for managing ICOs and crypto–token projects, scored a $10 million-plus funding in its September token crowdsale.
Some believe the future of the investment landscape will have no place for ICOs and cryptocurrency tokens.
Why does the investor hype surrounding crypto–token continue? A lot of it has to do with the one-time success of Bitcoin and Ethereum, experts believe.
“The main thing that’s going on is crypto enthusiasts have experienced significant gains from BTC and ETH in the past few years and are now overweighting vision and underweighting execution when making investment decisions,” says Nick Tomaino, principal at Runa Capital. “The crypto market has set the bar shockingly low for entrepreneurs to raise money and this is dangerous for everyone involved.”
In a blog post where he weighs in on the “irrational exuberance around ICO investing,” Tomaino describes crypto crowdfunding as fundraising getting done based on vision rather than any semblance of execution. “This has been a problem on Kickstarter for years and I’m fearful we’re going to see a lot of the same in the ICO world,” he says.
Otherwise, blockchain technology and blockchain investment are still nascent, and there are a lot of kinks that need to be ironed out. “The fact is that blockchain services have a real potential to disrupt huge industries like banking or insurance,” says Tim Zagar, co-founder at ICONOMI. “But, as they are very new, there is not much of a track record to go by. So the investors can choose either to wait for certainty and lose the potential of a large payout or accept the inherent risk — because the potential payout is worth it.”
The future of crypto-tokens
Some believe the future of the investment landscape will have no place for ICOs and cryptocurrency tokens. In a post titled “Against Crowdsales,” Hivemind developer Paul Sztorc, warned against crypto–token crowdsales in general, saying, “If you ever ‘invested’ in a crowdsale, you made a big mistake. It’s OK, maybe you didn’t know any better. Until now.”
Others believe it will depend on the investors and whether they push project developers to abide by a set of universally accepted rules. In a Medium blog post, Tomaino proposes a set of best practices that investors can use to vet crypto–token projects and determine whether they’re worth investing or not.
The practices include transparency, presenting a viable and testable model, a cap on funds and a control on liquidity. But above all, Tomaino believes, it’s the team itself that matters.
“Ask any professional VC what the most important aspect of early-stage investing is and they’ll tell you it’s people,” Tomaino says. “ICO investing is very similar to early-stage startup investing. The biggest thing being missed currently is people overweighting the importance of the idea and underweighting the importance of the people behind the idea and ability to execute — this isn’t something that technology will solve anytime soon. Investors need to assess the people behind the project and make sure that they’re quality.”
Several startups are working on programs and platforms that will make it easier for both investors and startups to overcome the challenges of crypto–token projects.
“Very often, blockchain startups are amazing technology teams that lack business experience, which leads them to underestimate the value of market research, sales or even a good revenue model,” ICONOMI’s Zagar told me. ICONOMI, Zagar explained, recently initiated a mentoring program to protect ICO investors while helping projects clarify their business proposition and business plan.
ICOrating is another company that has set up shop recently to offer analytical research and assessment of ICO projects to potential investors. The website presents a list of past and ongoing crypto–token projects along with their details, ICO progress and level of integrity based on the analysis done by the company’s experts.
Only time will tell whether ICOs are just another dot-com bubble ready to burst.
Other companies are pushing for more transparency by leveraging the power of the blockchain itself.
WINGS’ platform for creating and managing decentralized autonomous organizations uses the power of the blockchain community to evaluate and rate tokens. “The most important factors as always are understanding the team, the technology, the market potential and the timing,” says Dominik Zynis, communications lead at WINGS. “That can be really hard — if not impossible — for someone who is not crypto-savvy.”
Zynis further stresses that it can be hard to trust random analysts on the web, especially when their interests and goals are not known.
WINGS gives teams the ability to transparently weigh the sentiment toward their crypto–token project by using the power of crowd intelligence. The platform’s community analysts evaluate tokens via forecast markets, and get accountable and transparent incentives for the accuracy of their forecasts. The votes, history and credibility of each participant is stored on the blockchain.
“We think that this system can be used as a standard like a good housekeeping seal of approval,” Zynis says. “If WINGS forecasters take their financial rewards seriously then over time people will notice that projects that don’t launch with WINGS carry a higher risk factor of failing.”
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Another startup worth following is OpenLedger, which is developing a number of synergistic ecosystems and platforms to enable startups to strategize, promote and execute crypto–token crowdfunding campaigns.
OpenLedger’s team is working to develop a business model that will purportedly provide the blockchain community a source of investment opportunities. At the same time, the team has developed a due diligence checklist that it uses to assist startups through the conceptualization and launch phase and help them vet their projects before going public.
Adel, a self-regulating blockchain startup incubator, is working on an ecosystem based on the Nxt blockchain-as-a-service platform to assist in the proposal and development of blockchain projects. Members can get help on solidifying their proposals for funding by introducing their projects to the Adel community and receive advisory services in various fields such as finance, marketing, tech and law.
Adel will ICO in March 2017.
It’s still too early to see if any of these initiatives will manage to bring order to the chaos of the crypto–token landscape. The fintech industry is still ripe for disruption and only time will tell whether ICOs are just another dot-com bubble ready to burst or a new form of the investment that will drive a wedge between traditional venture capital and centralized crowdfunding and carve itself a permanent niche.
In the meantime, if trends are any indication, crypto-tokens will continue to absorb huge amounts of cash in 2017.
https://techcrunch.com/2017/02/12/can-you-trust-crypto-token-crowdfunding/
Your connection to the distributed economy
Create your own Digital Asset Arrays™ (DAA) from a wide variety of digital assets. Manage them and compare your performance with others. Attract supporters and make your mark in the new distributed economy.
COMING EARLY 2017
Benefits
ICONOMI Digital Asset Management platform is the only place where anyone can become a DAA manager. Try out your winning digital assets management strategy and compete with other DAA managers. Good performance will build your reputation and attract the digital assets of many supporters, from which you will earn a share of the proceeds.
Create your own DAA
Choose from a wide selection of distributed digital assets. Easily adjust your DAA for maximum performance.
Effectively manage your DAA
Optimise your DAA to outperform the competition and build your reputation among the community.
Share your DAA with supporters
Invite others to support your DAA and share the proceeds.
Showcase: ICONOMI.index
Do you believe in the potential of the distributed economy? ICONOMI.index makes it easy to simultaneously acquire multiple digital assets. A simple one-time purchase is divided among a selected array of digital assets representing 92% of new economy.
Simple purchase
It can be difficult to purchase and securely store a variety of digital assets. Avoid the hassle with ICONOMI.index - purchase an array of digital assets at the same time in just seconds.
Selection
There are hundreds of digital assets. Choosing the right representative digital assets to offer a good cross-section can be a challenge. ICONOMI.index represents a constantly adjusted cross-section of the new economy with the most potential.
Low entry barrier
Low fees and minimal thresholds for purchase make ICONOMI.index the best way to make an initial foray into the new economy.
ICONOMI.index
Launch date
21 Dec 2016
No. of tokens in array
13
1 week return
6.29 %
1 month return
40.63 %
02 Feb 10:4625 Feb 14:2020 Mar 17:5312 Apr 21:26$0.1500$0.2000$0.2500$0.3000
ABOUT ICONOMI DAA
ICONOMI.index
is a passive Digital Asset ArrayTM (DAA) developed from the ICONOMI value tokens index. It measures the performance of digital assets that meet the ICONOMI eligibility criteria and reflects the blockchain economy. The structure of the ICONOMI.index DAA delivers diversification benefits and minimises risk. The digital assets included in the index represent ~92% of the total market capitalisation of value tokens.
ICONOMI.performance
is an actively managed DAA with a higher performance target. Lead by a team of experts conducting thorough research and due diligence, ICONOMI.performance connects supporters’ digital assets with the best distributed economy startups and other lucrative opportunities.
Features
ICONOMI is more than just a marketplace for value tokens. The ICONOMI Digital Assets Management platform is an application that enables access to variety of digital assets and combined Digital Asset ArraysTM (DAA). ICONOMI provides DAA managers and their supporters the best experience and the simplest way to enter the rapidly growing distributed economy.
GET STARTED IN MINUTES
ICONOMI offers the simplest way to start your DAA. Sign up, deposit digital assets and you are ready to go. (COMING SOON)
24/7 ACCESS AND LIQUIDITY
Manage your digital assets 24/7. Fast withdrawals (*hot-wallet and per-session withdrawal limits apply) and no contract lock-ins. A growing list of supported digital coins and app tokens with deep liquidity.
REPUTATION SCORES
Use your track record to attract the digital assets of supporters and increase their gain as well as your own. Compete with other managers to attract the most supporters. (COMING SOON)
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All trades are executed on the markets. ICONOMI will never trade against you. No small print or hidden costs.
CUTTING EDGE SECURITY
The majority of assets are permanently stored in multi-sig protected cold wallets, so you can enjoy the safety of physical bank vaults.
More about ICONOMI
Learn more about Digital assets
Learn more about Arrays
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DAA
Digital Asset Arrays (DAA) include various combinations of digital assets. Each manager can create his own assortment of specific digital assets and offer them to the community.
Benefits of Digital Asset Arrays
Because arrays can consist of as many underlying digital assets as you want, they are a perfect vehicle to achieve your goals. Arrays can be either diversified to maximise value stability or tuned to aggressively pursue maximum gains.
Lower the risk of value loss
The new economy moves at lightning speed, so the value of digital assets can fluctuate rapidly. Making an array of several digital assets can lower the risk of fall in value.
Maintain an optimal digital asset mix
Easy array adjustments enable constant reaction to the markets for optimal growth.
Attract supporters and share proceeds
Invite others to support your assets array and share proceeds.
ICONOMI.index
ICONOMI.index is a passive digital assets array (DAA) developed from the ICONOMI cryptocurrencies index. It measures the performance of digital assets that meet the ICONOMI eligibility criteria and mimics the blockchain economy. The structure of the ICONOMI.index DAA delivers diversification benefits and minimises risk. The digital assets currently included in the index represent ~92% of the total market capitalisation of cryptocurrencies.
ICONOMI.index constituents and their corresponding weights are rebalanced on a monthly basis, or more frequently due to the fast changing environment of the cryptocurrency market. Between rebalancing periods, the weights of the index constituents move proportionally to their price movements. If the weight of a specific digital asset surpasses 25%, the index is immediately rebalanced.
ICONOMI.index is represented by ICNX app token. The methodology, rules, current structure and price of ICONOMI.index is published and updated every 5 minutes.
https://www.iconomi.net/
INTERNET OF BLOCKCHAINS
The Cosmos fundraiser raised $16.8 million USD and finished on April 6, 2017 6:28AM PDT.
Building an Internet of Blockchains
Purpose
Cosmos is a project with an ambitious mission: To create a network of distributed ledgers that will solve long-standing problems in the cryptocurrency and blockchain communities.
Architecture
The Cosmos network consists of many independent, parallel blockchains, called zones, each powered by classical Byzantine fault-tolerant (BFT) consensus protocols like Tendermint (already used by platforms like ErisDB). Some zones act as hubs with respect to other zones, allowing many zones to interoperate through a shared hub. The architecture is a more general application of the Bitcoin sidechains concept, using classic BFT and Proof-of-Stake algorithms, instead of Proof-of-Work.
Cosmos Hub
The first blockchain in the Cosmos network is the Cosmos hub. The Cosmos hub connects to zones via the novel IBC (inter-blockchain communication) protocol and keeps a record of the total number of tokens in each zone. Because all inter-zone token transfers go through the Cosmos hub, you can transfer tokens from one zone to another, quickly and securely, without the need for a liquid exchange or a trusted third party between zones.
The Cosmos hub can connect to many different kinds of zones, as long as each zone speaks IBC. As a result, Cosmos can support a variety of currencies and scripting languages like those found in Bitcoin, Ethereum, ZeroCash, CryptoNote, and more.
Read Whitepaper
Fundraiser Event
raised $16.8 million USD in 28 minutes.
https://cosmos.network/whitepaper
https://cosmos.network/
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