http://www.asyura2.com/11/genpatu12/msg/344.html
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2011-06-05
〔フクシマ・ＮＥＷＳ〕 「フェアウィンズ」のA・グンダーセン氏が警告 ３号機の炉「水蒸気爆発」の恐れ ４号機プール 余震で倒壊の可能性 その場合は「逃げる」しかない！（机の上の空 大沼安史の個人新聞）
米国の原発問題専門家、アーニー・グンダーセン氏は３日、ネット・メディア「クリス・マーテンセン・コム」のインタビューに答え、３号機の炉と４号機の使用済み燃料プールが危機的な状態にあることを、あらためて警告した。
〔３号機の炉〕
① ３号機は圧力容器から核燃料の溶融物が漏出し、格納容器の底にある状態の１、２号機とは違って、まだ圧力容器の底にとどまっているようだ
② ３号機の燃料がそういう状態にあるということは（１、２号機と違って）「再臨界」が起き得る状態にあるということだ。呼吸するように、臨界に達しては元に戻るような状況にある可能性がある。
③ ３号機で恐ろしいのは、圧力容器の底が割れ、炉心の全てが突然、崩落することだ。そうなると１００回に１回の確率で水蒸気爆発が起きる。
④ 米ＮＲＣ（原子力規制委員会）は昨日、３号機について注入した海水による鋼の腐食問題に初めて言及した。ＮＲＣでは炉（心）の底が破壊するのを恐れている。文字通り、全面的な破壊が起こり、（溶融した核燃料が）放出されることを恐れている。
〔４号機の使用済み燃料プール〕
① （しかし、３号機のよりも危険な）最大の懸念は４号機の使用済み燃料プールだ。
② 米国の国立ブルックヘイブン研究所が１９９７年に行った研究によると、使用済み燃料プールが大気に露出し、火災を起こすと、１８万７０００人が死亡する。
③ ＮＲＣの委員長がアメリカ人にフクシマ８０キロ圏内立入禁止を勧告したのは、４号機のプールが火災を起こすことを心配したからだ。
④ ４号機のプールは、スマトラ沖大地震の３ヵ月後に起きたＭ８.６の余震で倒壊する恐れがある。
⑤ もし、余震で４号機プールが倒壊したら、私の友人に対するアドバイスは「逃げろ」だ。
対応する原文は以下の通り。
〔３号機の炉〕原文
Unit 3 may not have melted through and that means that some of the fuel certainly is lying on the bottom, but it may not have melted through and some of the fuel may still look like fuel, although it is certainly brittle. And it's possible that when the fuel is in that configuration that you can get a re-criticality. It's also possible in any of the fuel pools, one, two, three, and four pools, that you could get a criticality, as well. So there’s been frequent enough high iodine indications to lead me to believe that either one of the four fuel pools or the Unit 3 reactor is in fact, every once in a while starting itself up and then it gets to a point where it gets so hot that it shuts itself down and it kind of cycles. It kind of breathes, if you will.
I think it's a relatively significant amount – maybe a tenth of the nuclear reactor core starts back up and shuts back down and starts back up and shuts back down. And that’s an extra heat load; you are not prepared to get rid of one tenth of a nuclear reactor’s heat by pumping water in the top
Now, Unit 3 has another problem and the NRC mentioned it yesterday for the first time and it gets back to that saltwater and the effect on iron. They are afraid that the reactor bottom will break, literally just break right out and dump everything. Because it's now hot and it's got salt on it and it's got the ideal conditions for corrosion. So the big fear on Unit 3 is that it will break at the bottom and whatever else remains in it, which could be the entire core, could fall out suddenly. And if that happens, you can get something called a “steam explosion,” and this may be a one in a hundred chance. I don’t want your listeners to think it's going to happen tomorrow, but if the core breaks you will get a steam explosion, but we’re not sure the core is going to break. And that is a violent hydrogen explosion like the one we’ve already witnessed.
〔４号機プール〕原文
Well, that’s two out of the three things they have to do. The other one is they can flood, if they can flood it from the outside – in other words, put water outside the pressure cooker, as well as inside the pressure cooker. They may be able to remove more heat that way and prevent the gross failure of the pressure vessel. But really, it's just hoping that you can put enough water in. And the other piece of that is and it relates to Unit 4 too, is a seismic event. If you put too much water in these reactors they get heavy, and they are not designed to sway when there is heavy – tens of tons of extra water in them. So they are really not designed to sway. So let’s say there is a severe aftershock, Unit 3 and Unit 4 are in real jeopardy. And if you remember the Sumatra earthquake, that was a nine plus about three or four years ago. The biggest aftershock occurred three months afterwards and that was an eight six, so aftershocks even though we are two months into this, if the Sumatra event is any indication, aftershocks are still possible.
You are absolutely right and there is no reactor running there. Everything has been taken out and it was put in the spent fuel pool. But that means there is no containment either, so the entire spent fuel pool is visible literally. When they have those helicopter fly-overs, you can look down into this blown out shell of a building and see the fuel in the spent fuel pool. It's still relatively hot, because it only shut down in November. So there is still a lot of decay hear in that pool. Brookhaven National Labs did a study in 1997 and it said that if a fuel pool went dry and caught on fire, it could cause a hundred and eighty-seven thousand fatalities. So it's a big concern and probably the biggest concern. I now the Chairman of the NRC said that the reason he told Americans to get out from fifty miles out was that he was afraid that Unit 4 would catch fire, that exposed fuel pool would volatilize plutonium, uranium, cesium, and strontium. And if the Brookhaven Study is to be believed could kill more than a hundred thousand people, as a result.
…… and now my concern and my advice to friends that if there is a severe aftershock and the Unit 4 building collapses, leave. We are well beyond where any science has ever gone at that point and nuclear fuel lying on the ground and getting hot is not a condition that anyone has ever analyzed.
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