http://www.asyura2.com/11/genpatu11/msg/549.html
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阿修羅の次の板で「福島原発災害チャリティー講演会」でのリスク評価を示唆するチラシが載せられていました。
http://www.asyura2.com/11/genpatu11/msg/529.html
ドイツ放射線防護協会のThomas Derseeさんに、暫定基準値ぎりぎりの食品を食べた場合の、彼の４月１２日付リスク計算書および助言全文を、ネットに流してくれと言われていました。しかし、まさかそんな高い数値の食品を、同じ民族？の者から食べさせられるとは考えず、載せませんでした。
茶葉の話といい、一般の許容値を年100ミリシーベルトにしようと言う安全委員会の声といい、油断していると現実化すると判断し、考える際の１つの資料として載せることにしました。
彼の計算によれば、基準値ぎりぎりを食べると、年100ミリでないと「安全」宣言はできないでしょう。そういう目論見かもしれません。恐ろしい。
今訳している時間が無いので、英語とドイツ語のまま載せます。それでも参考にできる方がたくさんいらっしゃると思います。
前後の文脈確認のため、私のつたない英文メールも関連箇所のみ載せます。（誤英文そのまま）
私の質問----ダーシーさんの英文回答----ドイツ語計算書 の順です。
今回は英文回答まで。ドイツ語計算書は、この後すぐ載せます。
訳せる方は訳してください。今私は訳す時間がありません。
大まかな内容はすでに阿修羅掲示板に投稿しました。
http://www.asyura2.com/11/genpatu9/msg/545.html
逃げるかどうか切迫した状況で、ろくに寝ていませんでしたので、誤解と見逃しもありました。ご自身でご確認ください。
私の質問
--------
Please tell us the risk of children under 10 having vegetables and milk that I list below.They eat the radioactive contaminated stuff provided at school lunch from Monday through Friday.
Data from the home pages of Gunma prefectuer. Gunma is located most leeward within the Kanto region of the stricken nuclear plant. So the other prefectures in the Kanto area are more contaminated as of 6 April.
As of 1 April Caesium137 Bq/kg
spinach 240 240 84greenhouse at three points
kakina spinach 280 at one point
tomato 0 green house at one point
strawberry 8.9 0 both points green house
udo wild grass 0 green house
milk not tested last detected 39, 46 on 23 March at two points
As of 5 April
spinach 480 169 28green house
kakina spinach 410 148
lettuce 0 green house
milk 0 0 at two points
Very few samples, doesn't cover the area, even the most contaminated east-just one point. No other food was tested. WHO SITREP NO25 reads total no.samples tested in Gunma is 90. But on 2,3,4 April there was no data. No test or no publication.
Iodine was detected in milk here on 23 March 39,46Bq/l at two points. The prefectueral government stopped -or stopped publishing- test since 24 March to 4 April. They published "not detected" on 5 April. The governor declared Gunma's milk to be safe. Points of examination were partially changed. The worst contaminated Ota city in Gunma area has been excluded. Ota is next to Tochigi and Saitama prefectures. Everything goes as such. The authority of the prefecture says the vegetables and milk in Gunma are safe, because the figures are below the limit of emergency regulation. What do you think? Situations in other prefectures are practically the same.
Tell us Japanese your advice and warning in any way. I want to know the risk for children of school lunch made of stuff that is not carefully examined. What were poisonous one month ago are now all safe, they say.-------
ダーシーさんの英文回答。
１通目
we share your worry and sorrow. I annex a paper by the German Society for Radiation Protection and Strahlentelex in Japanese.(岐阜の方々が訳された文書)
We recommend that you do not eat fresh leafy vegetables because of the danger to you and especially your son's thyroid gland by iodine-131 right now. Until the stricken reactor has stopped emitting radioactivity into the air and the water and then at least two months more, better still four months.
The spinach we calculated with is very highly contaminated, but other contamination, such as you quote, is not negligible. I will do a risk calculation in the next few days and send it to you. If you can, consider setting up an independent measuring station for food together with other parents or concerned citizens. In Germany, after the Chernobyl accident in the Ukraine, we were hit by the fallout, and about 40 such places were active for a couple of years. In Japan, you would probably need many more. In an emergency like this, people can't stop breathing but they can control the food and drink they take in. -------
２通目
we found that in Japan you have official allowable limits for radioactive contamination of food and drink. These are for infant food: 100Bq/kg Iodine-131 and other Iodines, 1Bq/kg Plutonium-239, 200Bq/kg Caesium137 and Caesium134; for milk and dairy products: 300Bq/kg Iodine-131, 1Bq/kg Plutonium-239, 200Bq/kg Cesium-137 and 134; other foods except drinks: 2000Bq/kg Iodine-131, 10Bq/kg Plutonium-239, 500Bq/kg Cesium-134 and 137; for drink, including drinking water: 300Bq/kg for Iodine-131, 1Bq/kg Plutonium-239 and 200Bq/kg Cesium 137 and 134. We could not find out if there are allowable limits for Strontium-90. In the European Union the limits for Strontium-90 are: for infant food 75Bq/kg, for milk and dairy products 125Bq/kg, for other food except drinks 750Bq/kg; and 125Bq/kg for drinks.
Radioactive Iodine, which you breathe in or eat and drink, accumulates mainly in the thyroid gland. Plutonium, which you eat or drink, will accumulate in the bones and the liver, if you breathe it in, it attacks the lung and is highly poisonous. Cesium-134 and137 seek the muscular and other tissues of the body. Strontium-90 accumulates in the bones, especially those of people whose body is still growing: infants and children. The concentrations of these radioactive elements can be measured and should be measured to control how much the Japanese people take in by way of food.
The radioactive elements affect the human body in different ways, their effect depends on the age of the person and some organs are more sensitive to radiation than others. To have a standard of calculation the concept of "effective dose" was invented. It means the dose of ionizing radiation in the whole organism, with different organs weighted differently.
If you consume food that meets the Japanese allowable limits(including the European limit for Strontium-90) you get the following effective doses: an infant(up to 1 year of age)-63 millisievert per year; a small child(1-2 years of age)-83 millisievert per year; a child(2-7 years of age)-78 millisievert per year; a child(7-12 years of age)-60 millisievertper year, an adolescent(12-17 years)-58 millisievert per year and a grown-up 33 millisievert per year. This dose comes on top of the environmental dose, which at the moment is higher than usual in Japan, and is measured regularly in microsievert per hour. 1000 microsievert are 1 millisievert.
If 100.000 children have a radioactive load of 80 millisievert per year by food and drink, 400 of them will die later of cancer every year. That is in addition to cancers that children develop from other reasons. This is a calculation done by ICRP(International Commission on Radiation Protection) based on data of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki hibakusha. Those data only became accessible in the last years for other researchers and scientist. These independent researchers put the figure 10 times higher. Thus, of 100.000 children with 80 millisievert/year, up to 4.000 will die later of cancer every year in addition to those, who would normally have died by cancer. Of grown-ups with a dose of 33 millisievert per year 165(ICRP) to 1650(independent research) people in 100.000 would die every year of cancer due to internal irradiation by food and drink.
Our governments by establishing such allowable limits demand human sacrifice in the hundreds and thousands. Please note, that this is only about deaths by cancer. The number of people falling ill with various cancers is higher. After the reactor accident of Chernobyl many types of cancer were observed. In addition, there was an increase of somatic disease like weakening of the immune system, premature ageing, cardio-vascular diseases in young people, chronical diseases of the stomach, the thyroid gland and the pancreas, as well as of neurological-psychiatric diseases as a direct somatic effect of low-dose radiation. In areas contaminated with 550 000Bq/square meter by radioactive fall-out, in the year 25 after the disaster, there are only 20% of healthy children. We hope that such a situation can be avoided in Kanto and Tohoku. I annex the calculation in German. All the best to you.
the calculation in German はなるべく早く次回投稿します。
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