http://www.asyura2.com/10/test21/msg/753.html
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The 20-sec mbMs discriminant is one of the most reliable and best
understood methods for identifying underground nuclear explosions.
To extend the
discriminant to lower magnitude thresholds at regional distances it is necessary to
perform the Ms measurement at shorter periods.
Although short-period Rayleighwave
measurements have lower detection thresholds than those at 20 sec, they are
more influenced by the effects of earthquake depth that cause overlap of earthquake
and explosion populations.
We present a technique using a probability of detection
model (PXD) to estimate the probability that a surface-wave detection came from an
underground explosion.
The key to the method is the development of a simple analytic
model to predict the maximum expected amplitude probability distribution (upper
tail) from an underground explosion of a given body-wave magnitude recorded
at a specified distance.
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