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ロシア政府の最高級外交アナリストが「2010年にアメリカは６つの国に分裂する」と大胆予測
文字通り陰謀的な帝国主義戦争を繰り返しながら、周辺領土を掠め取り
国土を拡げてきた「諸邦統合体」アメリカ（USA）であったが、北米大陸の半分を占める
かの地域が一国家として存立してきたことそのものが、世界史的にみれば
ひとつの「危うい奇蹟」であった。
いずれは米国も統合が内部崩壊して分裂に至るだろうが、それが
近未来に起こると予測するロシアの外交アナリストの分析は興味ぶかい。
仮に米国で内戦が発生したら、日本はどのフラグメントを応援するのだろうか？
アメリカ「幕府」が置かれたきたワシントンDCか？ それとも地理的に近接
しているハワイ州や本土西海岸地域か？
江戸時代末期の、諸邦（＝諸藩）が分裂しはじめた日本において、日本国内の
いくつかの有力な勢力は、それぞれ独立に海外列強との連携を模索し、
海外列強も、日本の分裂を策しつつアジアやアフリカで成功してきた
分断支配を目論見ながら、日本国内の有力なフラグメント（諸藩や幕府）に
それぞれ独立にアプローチをしていたわけだが、今後はアメリカの分裂を
想定しながら、そうしたアプローチを考えていくのも一興であろう。
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http://gaikokukabuhiroba.blogspot.com/
アメリカ分裂！？ ウォール・ストリート・ジャーナルの面白い記事
ロシアの学者が「２０１０年にアメリカは６つの国に分裂する」という説を唱えて話題になっているとウォール・ストリート・ジャーナルが伝えています。
この説を主張しているアイゴア・パナーリンは元ＫＧＢのアナリストで現在はロシア外務省の外交官養成アカデミーの学長を務めています。ウォール・ストリート・ジャーナルは「彼の経歴は傍流の人間ではなくロシア政界の中心を歩んできた人だ」と述べています。
パナーリンは礼節正しく快活な人で、「アメリカ人は嫌いじゃないよ」と公言しているそうです。しかしアメリカの将来は暗いと予言しています。
「大体、５５％くらいの確率でアメリカ分裂が起こると思う。」「我々ロシア人としては歓喜きわまるところだが、理詰めで考えればこれはロシアにとってもベスト・シナリオとは言えない。ロシアは世界での覇権という見地からはステータスが上がるが、経済的にはアメリカの瓦解はロシアを困窮させるだろう。」
パナーリンの分析では高水準の移民、経済の低迷、モラルの低下が２００９年の後半までにアメリカで内戦を誘発し、ドルが崩落する、、、そして２０１０年の７月頃までにアメリカは６つの国に分裂するとしています：
カリフォルニアは「カリフォルニア共和国」となり、中国の庇護を受けるか、中国の影響下に置かれる
テキサスは「テキサス共和国」となりメキシコの庇護を受けるかメキシコの影響下に置かれる
ワシントンＤＣとニューヨークは「アトランティック・アメリカ」としてＥＵとの連携を強める
イリノイ州、ミシガン州、オハイオ州を含む中西部は「中西部アメリカ共和国」としてカナダの庇護を受けるかその影響下に収まる
ハワイは日本もしくは中国の庇護の下に収まる
アラスカはロシアの一部となる
パナーリン学長は「みんなが俺を笑っていることは知っている。でもフランスの政治学者エマヌエル・トッドが１９７６年にソ連崩壊を予言したときもみんなの笑いものにされたことを忘れちゃいけない。」
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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html
DECEMBER 29, 2008
As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.
In Moscow, Igor Panarin's Forecasts Are All the Rage; America 'Disintegrates' in 2010
By ANDREW OSBORN
MOSCOW -- For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media.
Igor Panarin
In recent weeks, he's been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. "It's a record," says Prof. Panarin. "But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger."
Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.
But it's his bleak forecast for the U.S. that is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which in recent years has blamed Washington for everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial crisis. Mr. Panarin's views also fit neatly with the Kremlin's narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into separate territories.
A polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut, Mr. Panarin insists he does not dislike Americans. But he warns that the outlook for them is dire.
"There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur," he says. "One could rejoice in that process," he adds, poker-faced. "But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario -- for Russia." Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.
Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to Russian control.
In addition to increasing coverage in state media, which are tightly controlled by the Kremlin, Mr. Panarin's ideas are now being widely discussed among local experts. He presented his theory at a recent roundtable discussion at the Foreign Ministry. The country's top international relations school has hosted him as a keynote speaker. During an appearance on the state TV channel Rossiya, the station cut between his comments and TV footage of lines at soup kitchens and crowds of homeless people in the U.S. The professor has also been featured on the Kremlin's English-language propaganda channel, Russia Today.
Mr. Panarin's apocalyptic vision "reflects a very pronounced degree of anti-Americanism in Russia today," says Vladimir Pozner, a prominent TV journalist in Russia. "It's much stronger than it was in the Soviet Union."
Mr. Pozner and other Russian commentators and experts on the U.S. dismiss Mr. Panarin's predictions. "Crazy ideas are not usually discussed by serious people," says Sergei Rogov, director of the government-run Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, who thinks Mr. Panarin's theories don't hold water.
Mr. Panarin's résumé includes many years in the Soviet KGB, an experience shared by other top Russian officials. His office, in downtown Moscow, shows his national pride, with pennants on the wall bearing the emblem of the FSB, the KGB's successor agency. It is also full of statuettes of eagles; a double-headed eagle was the symbol of czarist Russia.
The professor says he began his career in the KGB in 1976. In post-Soviet Russia, he got a doctorate in political science, studied U.S. economics, and worked for FAPSI, then the Russian equivalent of the U.S. National Security Agency. He says he did strategy forecasts for then-President Boris Yeltsin, adding that the details are "classified."
In September 1998, he attended a conference in Linz, Austria, devoted to information warfare, the use of data to get an edge over a rival. It was there, in front of 400 fellow delegates, that he first presented his theory about the collapse of the U.S. in 2010.
"When I pushed the button on my computer and the map of the United States disintegrated, hundreds of people cried out in surprise," he remembers. He says most in the audience were skeptical. "They didn't believe me."
At the end of the presentation, he says many delegates asked him to autograph copies of the map showing a dismembered U.S.
He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.
California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.
"It would be reasonable for Russia to lay claim to Alaska; it was part of the Russian Empire for a long time." A framed satellite image of the Bering Strait that separates Alaska from Russia like a thread hangs from his office wall. "It's not there for no reason," he says with a sly grin.
Interest in his forecast revived this fall when he published an article in Izvestia, one of Russia's biggest national dailies. In it, he reiterated his theory, called U.S. foreign debt "a pyramid scheme," and predicted China and Russia would usurp Washington's role as a global financial regulator.
Americans hope President-elect Barack Obama "can work miracles," he wrote. "But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles."
The article prompted a question about the White House's reaction to Prof. Panarin's forecast at a December news conference. "I'll have to decline to comment," spokeswoman Dana Perino said amid much laughter.
For Prof. Panarin, Ms. Perino's response was significant. "The way the answer was phrased was an indication that my views are being listened to very carefully," he says.
The professor says he's convinced that people are taking his theory more seriously. People like him have forecast similar cataclysms before, he says, and been right. He cites French political scientist Emmanuel Todd. Mr. Todd is famous for having rightly forecast the demise of the Soviet Union -- 15 years beforehand. "When he forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976, people laughed at him," says Prof. Panarin.
Write to Andrew Osborn at andrew.osborn@wsj.com
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- 世界遺産：米イエローストンで群発地震 ４日間で２５０回 スットン教 2008/12/30 18:08:36
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