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【国際猿芝居にマーケットもどっチラケｗ】G20が終わった途端に日本がリセッション突入
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http://jp.reuters.com/article/domesticFunds/idJPnJS831355520081117
ウォールストリート・ジャーナル紙ヘッドライン（17日付）
2008年 11月 17日 15:43 JST
★米ゴールドマン・サックス(GS.N: 株価, 企業情報, レポート)、最高経営責任者（ＣＥＯ）ら幹部が０８年ボーナスを辞退。ほかの米金融機関も追随する可能性。
★自動車部品メーカー、公的資金注入の対象に含めるよう求める。
★今の弱気相場、優良株を割安に取得する好機＝投資アドバイザー
★鉱山会社、金属価格の急落を受けて生産縮小や人員削減を加速。
★英リセッション（景気後退）、予想より深刻な恐れ。失業者数は２０１０年までに３００万人近くまで増加する可能性も＝英産業連盟
★日本、２００１年以来のリセッション入り。需要の低迷などで。
［１７日 ロイター］
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●「ワシントンでG20が開催されたが金融危機への具体的措置を出せなかったせいで
マーケットに失望が広まり全世界経済危機への不安がますます深まって、
週明け早々、ついに日本も“リセッション墜ち主要国”の仲間入りを果たした」
――という出だしで始まる下の記事は、G20が単なる顔見せ興行で終わった
ことを冷笑的に批判している。
↓
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http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5ipYZWx-ey6wkRZ64OioWBEw8N7RA
（08年11月17日）
Japan slips into recession after lacklustre G20
5 hours ago
TOKYO (AFP) — Japan became the latest major country to fall into recession Monday as global economic fears deepened after a Washington summit offered markets scant hope for action to contain the damage, analysts said.
Markets showed little initial enthusiasm for a vague pledge on Saturday from Group of 20 leaders to join forces to galvanize growth and overhaul the world's financial architecture.
The G20 , grouping developed and developing countries, stopped short of announcing specific steps such as coordinated stimulus spending.
"In the midst of an emergency crisis, to have a statement that reads 'We will cooperate with each another' is all but meaningless," said Daisuke Uno, chief strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp.
"Market sentiment has soured and with all eyes back on the theme of global recession," he said.
Major European stock exchanges fell at the opening of trade, following a mixed performance in Asia, but later pared their losses. The yen strengthened as risk-averse investors, despite news of a Japanese recession, sought shelter in what they saw as a safe currency.
In London the FTSE 100 index was down 0.11 percent at mid-morning while Paris had edged up 0.34 percent and Frankfurt 0.18 percent.
Stocks closed down 2.5 percent in Sydney and 0.9 percent in Seoul, while Hong Kong was 0.4 percent lower in late trade. Tokyo managed to eke out a gain of 0.7 percent as investors hunted for bargains.
Chinese share prices closed with a gain of 2.22 percent, led by airlines following reports that two of the nation's biggest carriers could get government aid, dealers said.
The dollar fell to 96.91 yen in Tokyo afternoon trade, down from 97.06 in New York late Friday. The euro dropped to 1.2567 dollars from 1.2591 and to 121.77 yen from 122.24.
"The economic spillover of the financial crisis has increased and there is uncertainty about when conditions will stop getting worse," said Saburo Matsumoto, chief forex strategist at Sumitomo Trust Bank.
"Equities are struggling to rise and traders are reluctant to buy the dollar, euro and other currencies, pushing up the yen," he said.
There was no let-up in the flow of bad economic news. Official data showed Japan, the world's second largest economy, contracted 0.1 percent in the third quarter, following Germany, Italy and Ireland into recession.
"This is not going to be a short or painless recession," warned Noriko Hama, a professor and economist at Doshisha University.
The last time Japan was in recession -- usually defined as two or more consecutive quarters of economic contraction -- was in 2001 after the Internet bubble burst.
The Bank of France predicted Monday that the French economy was likely to contract by 0.5 percent in the last quarter of the year, leaving growth for the year at just 0.9 percent.
France narrowly escaped recession with growth of 0.1 percent in the third quarter after its economy shrank 0.3 percent in the second.
US president-elect Barack Obama, who did not attend the weekend G20 gathering, vowed to make fighting a looming recession a top priority, notably with fresh stimulus spending and help for the auto industry.
He said there was a common understanding that "we have to do whatever it takes to get this economy moving again."
"And that we shouldn't worry about the deficit next year or even the year after. That short term, the most important thing is that we avoid a deepening recession," he told the CBS television network in an interview.
The parlous state of the US auto industry was also threatening car manufacturers elsewhere.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel was due to hold crisis talks with executives at car maker Opel, which has said it needs state guarantees for its bank loans as its US parent company, General Motors, struggles to stave off bankruptcy.
But German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck ruled out a financial rescue package for the auto sector.
"An economic programme for the entire automobile industry makes no sense," Steinbrueck told the mass-circulation daily Bild, stressing that the state is "not responsible for errors committed by industrialists."
The head of the International Monetary Fund meanwhile told the BBC on Monday that the IMF, which offers credits to cash-strapped countries that agree to strict reforms, would likely need an extra 100 billion dollars to meet appeals for help over the next six months.
"The number of countries having problems at the same time has dramatically increased and they come to the IMF asking for support," IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said.
"So we need more resources."
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http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20081117/gee-twenty-is-this-it.htm
Gee, Twenty...is This It?!
By Jon Nadler
Posted 17 November 2008 @ 11:50 am EST
The global recession dominoes continued to fall over the weekend, paying little attention to the ridiculously tame G-20 summit and its lukewarm resolve to tax less and spend more. Japan became the latest casualty of the credit debacle's ripples which have spread around the globe several times over by now. The country fell into a recession for the first time since 2001, and the next victim is already lined up and ready to stumble: France. Not much point in debating whether the US is in a contraction, is there? In the interim, get ready for 50,000 pink slips at Citigroup, no bonuses at Goldman, massive layoffs at JP Morgan, and more wrangling over the fate of "The General" and of FoMoCo. BMW, Hyundai, and Toyota are flat-out opposing the life-preserver option for the stumbling giants.
Those who expected some kind of monumental meeting and stunning announcements in Washington, were left sorely disappointed, as the world's top 20 only sat around the table for six hours - just a bit longer than they probably sat around the fancy dinner table. No $53,000 gold to wake up to, today. Or, anytime soon. No "Bretton Woods for the New Millennium" either. The dollar encountered a bit of pressure as the new week got underway, but its rivals continued to show more signs of distress than a Detroit auto executive, and oil prices slipped towards $55 on OPEC's own distress over where consumption was going to come from, for the next year or two. Most analysts are in accord over the projection that the recession will be global, deep, and prolonged - taking us out well into 2009, and hopefully, not much beyond.
New York gold prices opened mildly lower, losing $4 at $738.50, and were likely waiting for cues from the dollar/oil duo as well as from the Dow later in the morning. The bellwether of commodities, copper, was struggling to keep from getting stuck with the 'worst performer' label in the metals complex, but did not succeed. Global inventories of the red stuff have more than doubled in the past four months and China - the darling of supercycle propagandists-shows no appetite for it. Copper has some good company however, as seen by the price trends in aluminium, cotton, zinc, and such. Commodities are also jittery on projections that 25% of hedge funds may simply cease to exist following the tsunami of withdrawals they are experiencing.
Silver lost 16 cents to start at $9.31 while platinum reversed course and fell $25 to $808 following the inauspicious economic news from Japan. Palladium remained lackluster, gaining $2 at $215 per ounce. The range in gold remains confined by the upper $600s on the support side, and by the mid $700s on the upper end. While we may be in for a near-term pop in gold prices, the outlook remains cloudy, at best. Swiss bank UBS AG issued a bit of a mixed report this morning, first projecting that "precious metals could outperform [we assume in the near-term] because of increased physical demand, and the possibility that the dollar's strength is unsustainable in the long term." That, was followed by the advice that " long-term investors (including central banks) in gold should reduce [their gold] holdings. Disinflation and a stronger US dollar will mean gold is unlikely to perform well over the next year or two."
And now, for your reading pleasure (hardly) we will do our public service duties and bring you the highlights of the G-20 statement issued over the weekend. Only the highlights. More than enough, thank you. Ten out of sixteen glorious points.
You may delve into the full text (if your care to) here: http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2008/11/20081115-1.html
1. We, the Leaders of the Group of Twenty, held an initial meeting in Washington on November 15, 2008, amid serious challenges to the world economy and financial markets. We are determined to enhance our cooperation and work together to restore global growth and achieve needed reforms in the world's financial systems.
2. Over the past months our countries have taken urgent and exceptional measures to support the global economy and stabilize financial markets. These efforts must continue. At the same time, we must lay the foundation for reform to help to ensure that a global crisis, such as this one, does not happen again. Our work will be guided by a shared belief that market principles, open trade and investment regimes, and effectively regulated financial markets foster the dynamism, innovation, and entrepreneurship that are essential for economic growth, employment, and poverty reduction.
Root Causes of the Current Crisis
3. During a period of strong global growth, growing capital flows, and prolonged stability earlier this decade, market participants sought higher yields without an adequate appreciation of the risks and failed to exercise proper due diligence. At the same time, weak underwriting standards, unsound risk management practices, increasingly complex and opaque financial products, and consequent excessive leverage combined to create vulnerabilities in the system. Policy-makers, regulators and supervisors, in some advanced countries, did not adequately appreciate and address the risks building up in financial markets, keep pace with financial innovation, or take into account the systemic ramifications of domestic regulatory actions.
4. Major underlying factors to the current situation were, among others, inconsistent and insufficiently coordinated macroeconomic policies, inadequate structural reforms, which led to unsustainable global macroeconomic outcomes. These developments, together, contributed to excesses and ultimately resulted in severe market disruption.
Actions Taken and to Be Taken
5. We have taken strong and significant actions to date to stimulate our economies, provide liquidity, strengthen the capital of financial institutions, protect savings and deposits, address regulatory deficiencies, unfreeze credit markets, and are working to ensure that international financial institutions (IFIs) can provide critical support for the global economy.
6. But more needs to be done to stabilize financial markets and support economic growth. Economic momentum is slowing substantially in major economies and the global outlook has weakened. Many emerging market economies, which helped sustain
the world economy this decade, are still experiencing good growth but increasingly are being adversely impacted by the worldwide slowdown.
7. Against this background of deteriorating economic conditions worldwide, we agreed that a broader policy response is needed, based on closer macroeconomic cooperation, to restore growth, avoid negative spillovers and support emerging market economies and developing countries. As immediate steps to achieve these objectives, as well as to address longer-term challenges, we will:
* Continue our vigorous efforts and take whatever further actions are necessary to stabilize the financial system.
* Recognize the importance of monetary policy support, as deemed appropriate to domestic conditions.
* Use fiscal measures to stimulate domestic demand to rapid effect, as appropriate, while maintaining a policy framework conducive to fiscal sustainability.
* Help emerging and developing economies gain access to finance in current difficult financial conditions, including through liquidity facilities and program support. We stress the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) important role in crisis response, welcome its new short-term liquidity facility, and urge the ongoing review of its instruments and facilities to ensure flexibility.
* Encourage the World Bank and other multilateral development banks (MDBs) to use their full capacity in support of their development agenda, and we welcome the recent introduction of new facilities by the World Bank in the areas of infrastructure and trade finance.
* Ensure that the IMF, World Bank and other MDBs have sufficient resources to continue playing their role in overcoming the crisis.
Common Principles for Reform of Financial Markets
8. In addition to the actions taken above, we will implement reforms that will strengthen financial markets and regulatory regimes so as to avoid future crises. Regulation is first and foremost the responsibility of national regulators who constitute the first line of defense against market instability. However, our financial markets are global in scope, therefore, intensified international cooperation among regulators and strengthening of international standards, where necessary, and their consistent implementation is necessary to protect against adverse cross-border, regional and global developments affecting international financial stability. Regulators must ensure that their actions support market discipline, avoid potentially adverse impacts on other countries, including regulatory arbitrage, and support competition, dynamism and innovation in the marketplace. Financial institutions must also bear their responsibility for the turmoil and should do their part to overcome it including by recognizing losses, improving disclosure and strengthening their governance and risk management practices.
9. We commit to implementing policies consistent with the following common principles for reform.
* Strengthening Transparency and Accountability: We will strengthen financial market transparency, including by enhancing required disclosure on complex financial products and ensuring complete and accurate disclosure by firms of their financial conditions. Incentives should be aligned to avoid excessive risk-taking.
* Enhancing Sound Regulation: We pledge to strengthen our regulatory regimes, prudential oversight, and risk management, and ensure that all financial markets, products and participants are regulated or subject to oversight, as appropriate to their circumstances. We will exercise strong oversight over credit rating agencies, consistent with the agreed and strengthened international code of conduct. We will also make regulatory regimes more effective over the economic cycle, while ensuring that regulation is efficient, does not stifle innovation, and encourages expanded trade in financial products and services. We commit to transparent assessments of our national regulatory systems.
* Promoting Integrity in Financial Markets: We commit to protect the integrity of the world's financial markets by bolstering investor and consumer protection, avoiding conflicts of interest, preventing illegal market manipulation, fraudulent activities and abuse, and protecting against illicit finance risks arising from non-cooperative jurisdictions. We will also promote information sharing, including with respect to jurisdictions that have yet to commit to international standards with respect to bank secrecy and transparency.
* Reinforcing International Cooperation: We call upon our national and regional regulators to formulate their regulations and other measures in a consistent manner. Regulators should enhance their coordination and cooperation across all segments of financial markets, including with respect to cross-border capital flows. Regulators and other relevant authorities as a matter of priority should strengthen cooperation on crisis prevention, management, and resolution.
* Reforming International Financial Institutions: We are committed to advancing the reform of the Bretton Woods Institutions so that they can more adequately reflect changing economic weights in the world economy in order to increase their legitimacy and effectiveness. In this respect, emerging and developing economies, including the poorest countries, should have greater voice and representation. The Financial Stability Forum (FSF) must expand urgently to a broader membership of emerging economies, and other major standard setting bodies should promptly review their membership. The IMF, in collaboration with the expanded FSF and other bodies, should work to better identify vulnerabilities, anticipate potential stresses, and act swiftly to play a key role in crisis response.
Tasking of Ministers and Experts
10. We are committed to taking rapid action to implement these principles. We instruct our Finance Ministers, as coordinated by their 2009 G-20 leadership (Brazil, UK, Republic of Korea), to initiate processes and a timeline to do so. An initial list of specific measures is set forth in the attached Action Plan, including high priority actions to be completed prior to March 31, 2009.
In consultation with other economies and existing bodies, drawing upon the recommendations of such eminent independent experts as they may appoint, we request our Finance Ministers to formulate additional recommendations, including in the following specific areas:
* Mitigating against pro-cyclicality in regulatory policy;
* Reviewing and aligning global accounting standards, particularly for complex securities in times of stress;
* Strengthening the resilience and transparency of credit derivatives markets and reducing their systemic risks, including by improving the infrastructure of over-the-counter markets;
* Reviewing compensation practices as they relate to incentives for risk taking and innovation;
* Reviewing the mandates, governance, and resource requirements of the IFIs; and
* Defining the scope of systemically important institutions and determining their appropriate regulation or oversight.
Oh, and one more: Buried in the concluding part of the communique:
Medium -term actions
* We underscored that the Bretton Woods Institutions must be comprehensively reformed so that they can more adequately reflect changing economic weights in the world economy and be more responsive to future challenges. Emerging and developing economies should have greater voice and representation in these institutions.
* The IMF should conduct vigorous and even-handed surveillance reviews of all countries, as well as giving greater attention to their financial sectors and better integrating the reviews with the joint IMF/World Bank financial sector assessment programs. On this basis, the role of the IMF in providing macro-financial policy advice would be strengthened.
* Advanced economies, the IMF, and other international organizations should provide capacity-building programs for emerging market economies and developing countries on the formulation and the implementation of new major regulations, consistent with international standards.
One slight problem: the IMF said today it needs at least $100 billion to fight the global credit crisis. Will it reach for the gold? Hope not.
Today, thus far, we have a case of a declining dollar, oil, gold (as well as silver and platinum), and likely stocks as well, Clutch that cash.
Happy Clutching.
Read the full article of:
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20081117/gee-twenty-is-this-it.htm
IBTimes Commodity Commentaries
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