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(回答先: 静岡新聞、日経ＢＰに続き中日新聞も有効需要を補わないといけない点を、森永卓郎氏が指摘する 投稿者 ブッダの弟子 日時 2008 年 9 月 03 日 14:14:22)
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b2d0c052-75e2-11dd-99ce-0000779fd18c.html?nclick_check=1
概要
11兆5千億円の景気刺激策は、小さすぎ、景気刺激として間違った誘導がされている。まず、11兆5千億円というが、実際の追加消費の部分は1兆8千億円である。これは、バブルがはじけた後の失われた10年の時の、景気刺激策の３０〜４０兆円より低い。
ＧＤＰに関して、それは小さいだろう。
低所得者に対する景気策のみで、相当大きな追加支出ではない。
公明党は減税措置について、来年までしか効果はなく、規模が小さいようだと答えた。
・・・まーた、政府の名目上の借金について触れ、これ以上、借金したらいつまで経っても返せない、という様な事が書かれていて、読むのがアホらしくなった。極めつけはこれ。
“Even without a fiscal stimulus, we believe the recovery will become clear from next year”, when the US economy is expected to see a gradual recovery, says Akira Maekawa, senior economist at UBS in Tokyo.
アメリカが徐々に景気回復する事が見込まれ。
財政出動無しだとしても、私たちは翌年から景気は回復すると”信じている”
Japan’s current slowdown is moderate, “so when it hits bottom, the recovery should be firm”, he says.
日本の現在の景気後退は”穏やかである” だから底を打った時、景気回復はしっかりとするだろう。
コメント
なるほど、信じて拝むしか対策はないわけですか。
そしてお気楽に、こんな馬鹿げた事をするわけです↓
郵貯の次の狙いとして、農林中央金庫がターゲットにされてる。あそこにはまだ、アメリカが手を付けていないお金が眠っているから
http://www.asyura2.com/08/senkyo52/msg/785.html
おまけ
竹中平蔵 【サブプライム危機】民営化した郵政はアメリカに出資せよ 08/04/21
http://www.geocities.jp/mirrorhenkan/sono39/?u=http://news24.2ch.net/test/read.cgi/bizplus/1208778288/
【金融不安】アメリカ住宅公社救済協力へ外貨準備活用案浮上【対米協調】 7/17
http://mamono.2ch.net/test/read.cgi/newsplus/1216299752/
英文
Little expected from Japan stimulus
By Michiyo Nakamoto in Tokyo
Published: August 29 2008 17:05 | Last updated: August 29 2008 17:05
Having launched 15 economic stimulus packages in the past 16 years, the Japanese government might be expected to be an expert on emergency measures to boost a flagging economy.
But the package it unveiled on Friday was roundly criticised as not only too little to save the economy from its current woes, but misguided to boot.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
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For one thing, the headline figure of Y11,500bn ($105bn, €71bn, £57bn) might appear significant at first sight, but the actual additional spending comes down to just Y1,800bn.
This is significantly less than the average Y3,000bn to Y4,000bn of additional budgetary spending during the so-called “lost decade”, after the asset bubble burst, points out Kyohei Morita, chief economist at Barclays Capital in Tokyo.
“In terms of the impact on gross domestic product, it will be small,” he says.
The main elements of the package – Y9,500bn in loans and credit guarantees to small and medium-sized businesses, energy subsidies for businesses most hit by higher energy costs, medical benefits for the elderly – are designed mainly to address the concerns of the weaker members of society, without substantial extra outlays.
An important pillar of the package is government support for small and medium-sized companies to improve energy conservation and efficiency, to help restructure Japan into a more energy-efficient economy, says Tatsuya Terazawa, head of the economic policy unit in the ministry of economy, trade and industry.
But Mr Terazawa concedes, and most economists agree, that the measures are unlikely to make a significant contribution to growth in the near term, and will rather help shore up businesses that might otherwise have gone under amid rising prices and a deteriorating business environment.
The increased credit guarantees for small businesses, for example, will help improve credit availability for smaller businesses, which have suffered tightening credit conditions following changes to the money-lending law and the US subprime crisis that has also affected real estate developers in Japan. Still, such financial assistance for small businesses could turn into “a double-edged sword”, and “could ultimately mean extending the lives of unprofitable companies while at the same time increasing the government’s fiscal burden”, says Tetsufumi Yamakawa, director of Japan economic research at Goldman Sachs.
And ironically, the government’s efforts to help SMEs contradicts its moves to tighten money-lending rules and will lower the ratio of government credit guarantees available to small businesses, which already have tightened access to credit, says Mr Morita.
Furthermore, the planned tax cuts, which the junior coalition partner, the New Komeito party, insisted be part of the package, will not be in effect until next year and are likely to be small.
Although the government plans to debate further tax reform measures later this year, Mr Yamakawa says there is little room for major tax cuts for households, which are facing a decline in purchasing power because of a worsening job environment, stagnant wage growth and price rises on food and other daily necessities.
This is because the government is saddled with debts of Y900,000bn, or nearly 180 per cent of GDP, which restricts its options. At a repayment rate of Y10,000 per second, it would take the government 2,800 years to repay all that debt, Mr Morita says.
Given that none of the measures are expected to provide an immediate boost to the economy, the consensus is that the package is more an attempt by the ruling LDP to boost its public support than to stimulate consumption or investment.
Nevertheless, not many economists are terribly worried about the fate of the Japanese economy.
“Even without a fiscal stimulus, we believe the recovery will become clear from next year”, when the US economy is expected to see a gradual recovery, says Akira Maekawa, senior economist at UBS in Tokyo.
Japan’s current slowdown is moderate, “so when it hits bottom, the recovery should be firm”, he says.
- 注目点：積極財政派が、息を吹き返したが２００日移動平均線下落中のいま 日経平均をどこまで回復させることができるだろう？ hou 2008/9/03 23:19:38
(1)
- 福田首相は、９００日移動平均線と３００日移動平均線がデッドクロスになった日に辞任 hou 2008/9/03 23:45:18
(0)
- 福田首相は、９００日移動平均線と３００日移動平均線がデッドクロスになった日に辞任 hou 2008/9/03 23:45:18
(0)
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