(回答先: イスラエル軍がシリア空爆か 米で報道(朝日新聞） 投稿者 鳥の目と虫の目 日時 2007 年 9 月 17 日 21:33:17)
DAMASCUS, Syria: It has been a quarter-century since Syria and Israel turned their guns on each other in outright war. But tensions are sky-high after an Israeli air strike deep into Syrian territory — a hit America says targeted Iranian missiles, but which also raised the specter of North Korean links.
Neither side has explained what happened during the incident a week ago: Israel has maintained total silence, and Syria has said very little beyond an initial statement and a later complaint to the United Nations.
Yet neither country appears eager to have the conflict spiral further. Israel has kept its troops on the Golan Heights on high alert and Syria has discreetly done a limited callup of air defense reservists, but overall, the crisis has seemed more a secret war of nerves than preparation for outright hostilities.
"The picture is still foggy," said Christopher Pang, head of the Middle East and North Africa program at the Royal United Services Institute in London.
Most information has come from outside: A U.S. government official confirmed this week that Israeli warplanes had conducted a strike. The official, who would not speak publicly, said Israel was targeting weapons in northeastern Syria, which were from Iran and destined for Hezbollah militants in Lebanon.
The Washington Post reported Thursday, however, that Israel had gathered satellite imagery showing possible North Korean cooperation with Syria on a nuclear facility. It said an unnamed former Israeli official said the air strike had been against a Syrian site capable of making unconventional weapons.
Syrian's UN envoy denied the country had Hezbollah weapons. And its information minister, Mohsen Bilal, told the Saudi newspaper Asharq al-Awsat on Thursday that the accusations of North Korean nuclear help were a "new American spin to cover up" for Israel.
Other theories have abounded: One possibility is that Israel was simply on an intelligence-gathering reconnaissance mission, said David Hartwell, Middle East and North Africa editor for Jane's Country Risk. Others have said that perhaps Israel was testing Syria's air defenses or even scouting an air corridor for a future strike against Iran.
Either way, the overflight probably at least served one main purpose, as a warning, experts said.
"In terms of deterrence, the effect was clear — by invading Syrian airspace, by showing that Israel is not only able, but willing, to still launch strikes against Syrian targets," Pang said.
North Korea, which has a longstanding alliance with Syria, condemned the Israeli air incursion and Israeli experts say North Korea and Iran both have been major suppliers of Syria's missile stock.
But many experts, including Hartwell, said they found the idea of North Korean nuclear help to Syria unlikely, in part because Syria's weak economy would make it hard-pressed to afford nuclear technology.
Israel's silence has been among the most curious things about the incident.
In the past, Israel often has been swift to announce such operations. Syria, where the media is tightly controlled by the state, has been slow to comment. This time, Israel said nothing and Syria was the one to announce that its air space had been entered and that Israel had "dropped munitions."
Syria also has not asked the U.N. Security Council to meet over the incident or to condemn the act. Instead, it merely asked for its complaint to be circulated.
The location and timing of the strike also are puzzling: Some experts believe it unlikely that Syria would locate sensitive projects in the country's northeast near the border with Turkey, which is friendly with Israel as well as with Syria. The country's main strategic military installations are believed to be located in the central desert.
Others note that Syria has been thought to be a transit point for weapons to Hezbollah for years, and question why Israel would take steps to stop that now.
"My assessment is that there is a very complex security picture that I think is potentially driving these events," said Pang. "If I had to pin down to the most likely ... to me the Hezbollah-Iranian connection seems the most plausible" — especially if Israel discovered a large cache of weapons stored in Syria, or an important supply route to Hezbollah.
Syria and Israel fought each other during both the 1967 and 1973 Mideast wars. Their last military confrontation was in neighboring Lebanon in 1982, when Israel's air force shot down dozens of Syrian warplanes and Israel destroyed Syrian tanks.
All that past history has left the region jittery about another possible war, just a little more than a year after the end of the Hezbollah-Israel war in Lebanon.
Syria's deputy foreign minister, Faysal Mekdad, made clear Thursday the incident may not be over.
"Syria will respond to any Israeli acts, now and in the future," he said.
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/09/13/africa/ME-GEN-Syria-Israel.php
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