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アメリカ退役空軍高官が、アメリカのイラン攻撃準備は2月末までに完了すると予測。
Michel Chossudovsky教授主宰のglobalresearch.caに、アメリカ退役空軍高官が今後のイラン情勢の進展を予測した記事を寄稿しました。著者のキャリアを考えると極めて信頼性の高い記事と思われますので、要旨を投稿します。
以下要旨
アメリカのイラン攻撃準備は着実に進展しており、2月末までにはすべての準備が完了するであろう。
以下のような現在までの進展
・アラビア海への空母機動部隊増派
・イスラエルなどでのミサイル迎撃システム配備
・（イラクでの）イラン外交官拘束
に引き続き、今後は以下のような事態が進展すると思われる。
・口先では「イラン攻撃の意図なし」と言いながらの、
・（アメリカ国家安全保障委員会主導による）メディアを総動員しての、イランへのネガ ティブキャンペーン（訳注：何らかの突発的事件−例えばブッシュ大統領暗殺のような −がおこり、イランのせいにされる、ということも考えられる）
・ヨーロッパに配備していたミサイル防衛システムをイスラエルに追加配備
・イラク・アフガンへのアメリカ空軍戦闘機追加配備
・イラク−イラン国境にアメリカ軍を展開（イランの反撃を予防するため）
・開戦数日前には、アメリカ空軍のタンカーが通常寄港しない場所−例えばブルガリア− に立ち寄る。（アメリカから出撃するB-2戦略爆撃機に給油するため）
以下原文。（Michel Chossudovsky教授の解説つき）
--------------------------------------------
http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=GAR20070116&articleId=4483
Iran: Pieces in Place for Escalation
"The fuel for a fire is in place".
by Colonel Sam Gardiner
Global Research, January 16, 2007
The Left Coaster - 2007-01-14
Editorial Note
The following text by Colonel Sam Gardiner (USAF, Retired) confirms our worst fears. The US is in an advanced state of readiness to wage war on Iran.
To reverse the tide requires a massive campaign of networking and outreach to inform people across the land, nationally and internationally, in neighborhoods, workplaces, parishes, schools, universities, municipalities, on the dangers of a US sponsored war, which contemplates the use of nuclear weapons. The message should be loud and clear: It is not Iran which is a threat to global security but the United States of America and Israel. Even without the use of nukes, the proposed aerial bombardments could result in escalation, ultimately leading us into a broader war in the Middle East.
Debate and discussion must also take place within the Military and Intelligence community, particularly with regard to the use of tactical nuclear weapons, within the corridors of the US Congress, in municipalities and at all levels of government. Ultimately, the legitimacy of the political and military actors in high office must be challenged.
The corporate media also bears a heavy responsibility for the cover-up of US sponsored war crimes. It must also be forcefully challenged for its biased coverage of the Middle East war.
What is needed is to break the conspiracy of silence, expose the media lies and distortions, confront the criminal nature of the US Administration and of those governments which support it, its war agenda as well as its so-called "Homeland Security agenda" which has already defined the contours of a police State.
The World is at the crossroads of the most serious crisis in modern history. The US has embarked on a military adventure, "a long war", which threatens the future of humanity. It is essential to bring the US war project to the forefront of political debate, particularly in North America and Western Europe. Political and military leaders who are opposed to the war must take a firm stance, from within their respective institutions. Citizens must take a stance individually and collectively against war.
Michel Chossudovsky, Global Research, 16 January 2007
（以下本文）
I do not accept the notion that the first casualty of war is truth. (Col. Sam Gardiner)
The pieces are moving. They’ll be in place by the end of February. The United States will be able to escalate military operations against Iran.
The second carrier strike group leaves the U.S. west coast on Tuesday. It will be joined by naval mine clearing assets from both the United States and the UK. Patriot missile defense systems have also been ordered to deploy to the Gulf.
Maybe as a guard against North Korea seeing operations focused on Iran as a chance to be aggressive, a squadron of F-117 stealth fighters has just been deployed to Korea.
This has to be called escalation. We have to remind ourselves, just as Iran is supporting groups inside Iraq, the United States is supporting groups inside Iran. Just as Iran has special operations troops operating inside Iraq, we’ve read the United States has special operations troops operating inside Iran.
Just as Iran is supporting Hamas, two weeks ago we found out the United States is supporting arms for Abbas. Just as Iran and Syria are supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon we’re now learning the White House has approved a finding to allow the CIA to support opposition groups inside Lebanon. Just as Iran is supporting Syria, we’ve learned recently that the United States is going to fund Syrian opposition groups.
We learned this week the President authorized an attack on the Iranian liaison office in Irbil.
The White House keeps saying there are no plans to attack Iran. Obviously, the facts suggest otherwise. Equally as clear, the Iranians will read what the Administrations is doing not what it is saying.
It is possible the White House strategy is just implementing a strategy to put pressure on Iran on a number of fronts, and this will never amount to anything. On the other hand, if the White House is on a path to strike Iran, we’ll see a few more steps unfold.
First, we know there is a National Security Council staff-led group whose mission is to create outrage in the world against Iran. Just like before Gulf II, this media group will begin to release stories to sell a strike against Iran. Watch for the outrage stuff.
The Patriot missiles going to the GCC states are only part of the missile defense assets. I would expect to see the deployment of some of the European-based missile defense assets to Israel, just as they were before Gulf II.
I would expect deployment of additional USAF fighters into the bases in Iraq, maybe some into Afghanistan.
I think we will read about the deployment of some of the newly arriving Army brigades going into Iraq being deployed to the border with Iran. Their mission will be to guard against any Iranian movements into Iraq.
As one of the last steps before a strike, we’ll see USAF tankers moved to unusual places, like Bulgaria. These will be used to refuel the US-based B-2 bombers on their strike missions into Iran. When that happens, we’ll only be days away from a strike.
The White House could be telling the truth. Maybe there are no plans to take Iran to the next level. The fuel for a fire is in place, however. All we need is a spark. The danger is that we have created conditions that could lead to a Greater Middle East War.
[emphasis added by Global Research]
Sam Gardiner is a Retired Air Force Colonel. He is an expert in military strategy. He has taught at the National War College. He has also taught at the Air War College, the Naval War College and as visiting scholar at the Swedish Defense College. His Truth In These Podia (pdf) explains the propaganda methods used by the Pentagon to "sell the war".
See also the following 2005 Global Research review article on Sam Gardiner's analysis of the Pentagon's Office of Strategic Influence: America's Ministry of Propaganda Exposed, Downing Street Memo is but the Tip of the Iceberg, by Gar Smith
Global Research Articles by Sam Gardiner
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