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http://www.jcp.or.jp/akahata/aik4/2006-10-13/2006101307_03_0.html から転載。
2006年10月13日(金)「しんぶん赤旗」
イラク開戦後
死者６５万人超
大学調査で推定
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【ロンドン＝岡崎衆史】英医学専門誌『ランセット』（電子版）は十一日、イラク戦争開始後、銃撃や暴力、健康悪化など戦争にかかわるイラク人死者が人口の約２・５％に当たる六十五万人を超えたと推定する研究論文を発表しました。
論文は、米国のジョンズ・ホプキンズ大学ブルームバーグ公衆衛生学部とイラクのムスタンシリア大学の共同調査によるものです。
論文は、戦争前の死亡率を基に算出した数と比べ、イラク戦争開始二日前の二〇〇三年三月十八日から〇六年六月末までの死亡者は、「六十五万四千九百六十五人多かった」と指摘。このうち、六十万一千二十七人が暴力行為によるもので、その５６％が銃撃などで死亡したとしました。
調査は、イラクの四十七集落で千八百四十九世帯一万二千八百一人を対象に実施。〇二年一月から〇六年六月までを対象とした調査では、人口千人当たりの死亡者は戦争前が年間五・五人だったのに対して、開戦後は同十三・三人に急増していました。ここで得られた結果から、イラク全土での死亡者数を推測しました。
論文はイラク紛争について、長期化していることと、極めて多数の人がその否定的影響を受けていることを挙げ、「二十一世紀の最も破壊的な国際的紛争」と指摘。被害状況をより明確にするために、独立の国際機関による調査の実施を求めました。
『ランセット』誌は〇四年十月、今回の論文と同じチームによるイラク戦争開始後のイラク人死者は約十万人と推計する論文を発表し、イラク戦争被害を過小評価していた人々に衝撃を与えました。今回の論文は同論文の内容を改定することが目的でした。
「ランセット」誌の英文記事はこちら ⇒
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140673606694919/fulltext#abstract
Mortality after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: a cross-sectional cluster sample survey
PDF はこちら ⇒ http://download.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/0140-6736/PIIS0140673606694919.pdf
（記事が長大なので Summary と Introduction の部分のみ貼りつける）
Summary
Background
An excess mortality of nearly 100000 deaths was reported in Iraq for the period March, 2003–September, 2004, attributed to the invasion of Iraq. Our aim was to update this estimate.
Methods
Between May and July, 2006, we did a national cross-sectional cluster sample survey of mortality in Iraq. 50 clusters were randomly selected from 16 Governorates, with every cluster consisting of 40 households. Information on deaths from these households was gathered.
Findings
Three misattributed clusters were excluded from the final analysis; data from 1849 households that contained 12801 individuals in 47 clusters was gathered. 1474 births and 629 deaths were reported during the observation period. Pre-invasion mortality rates were 5·5 per 1000 people per year (95% CI 4·3–7·1), compared with 13·3 per 1000 people per year (10·9–16·1) in the 40 months post-invasion. We estimate that as of July, 2006, there have been 654965 (392979–942636) excess Iraqi deaths as a consequence of the war, which corresponds to 2·5% of the population in the study area. Of post-invasion deaths, 601027 (426369–793663) were due to violence, the most common cause being gunfire.
Interpretation
The number of people dying in Iraq has continued to escalate. The proportion of deaths ascribed to coalition forces has diminished in 2006, although the actual numbers have increased every year. Gunfire remains the most common cause of death, although deaths from car bombing have increased.
Introduction
There has been widespread concern over the scale of Iraqi deaths after the invasion by the US-led coalition in March, 2003. Various methods have been used to count violent deaths, including hospital death data from the Ministry of Health, mortuary tallies, and media reports.1,2 The best known is the Iraq Body Count, which estimated that, up to September 26, 2006, between 43491 and 48283 Iraqis have been killed since the invasion.1 Estimates from the Iraqi Ministry of the Interior were 75% higher than those based on the Iraq Body Count from the same period.2 An Iraqi non-governmental organisation, Iraqiyun, estimated 128000 deaths from the time of the invasion until July, 2005, by use of various sources, including household interviews.3
The US Department of Defence keeps some records of Iraqi deaths, despite initially denying that they did.4 Recently, Iraqi casualty data from the Multi-National Corps-Iraq (MNC-I) Significant Activities database were released.5 These data estimated the civilian casuality rate at 117 deaths per day between May, 2005, and June, 2006, on the basis of deaths that occurred in events to which the coalition responded. There also have been several surveys that assessed the burden of conflict on the population.6–8 These surveys have predictably produced substantially higher estimates than the passive surveillance reports.
Aside from violence, insufficient water supplies, non-functional sewerage, and restricted electricity supply also create health hazards.9,10 A deteriorating health service with insecure access, and the flight of health professionals adds further risks. People displaced by the on-going sectarian violence add to the number of vulnerable individuals. In many conflicts, these indirect causes have accounted for most civilian deaths.11,12
In 2004, we did a survey of 33 randomly selected clusters of 30 households with a mean of eight residents throughout Iraq to determine the excess mortality during the 17·8 months after the 2003 invasion.8 The survey estimated excess mortality of at least 98000 (95% CI 8000–194000) after excluding, as an outlier, the high mortality reported in the Falluja cluster. Over half of excess deaths recorded in the 2004 study were from violent causes, and about half of the violent deaths occurred in Falluja.
To determine how on-going events in Iraq have affected mortality rates subsequently, we repeated a national household survey between May and July, 2006. We measured deaths from January, 2002, to July, 2006, which included the period of the 2004 survey.
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