北朝鮮が地下実験を予定する核兵器はソウルや東京のような都市で爆発すれば、最大20万人を優に殺害する規模、と英国紙テレグラフ・電子版（10月8日付）は報じた。

同核兵器は長崎原爆と同じ出力20キロトンで、長さが約10フィート、重さが4トン。現在北朝鮮所有のミサイルには大き過ぎて搭載はできない。地上爆発の場合、5平方マイル内のもの全てを破壊する。

同核兵器の実験は早ければ今日（10月8日）との予測もあったが、ピョンヤン駐在のロシア軍当局者によれば、アメリカとの交渉開始のため最大3ヶ月の猶予期間が設けられるという。もし２国間対話で制裁撤廃が実現しなければ、12月後半あるいは1月初旬に実験が行われる見込みである。

⇒
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/10/08/wnkorea08.xml
N Korea's bomb 'would kill 200,000'
By Sergey Soukhorukov in Pyongyang
(Filed: 08/10/2006)

The nuclear weapon that North Korea intends to detonate in an underground test is big enough to kill up to 200,000 people were it ever to be used against a city such as Seoul or Tokyo, Russian military experts have revealed.

They say that the weapon, with the same 20-kiloton yield as the bomb dropped on Nagasaki, is about 10ft long and weighs four tons. It is too big to fit on to any missile Kim Jong Il's regime currently possesses but if it were detonated above ground it could destroy everything within five square miles.

Speculation has mounted that North Korea may conduct its first nuclear test as early as today after it confirmed last week that it intended to press ahead.

But Russian military officials in Pyongyang say they have received information that North Korea intends to give the US up to three months to lift financial sanctions imposed last year and to begin negotiations before carrying out its threat. "If Americans don't start bilateral dialogue with Pyongyang and lift sanctions, then Kim Jong-il is expected to give the order to carry on with the test, most likely in the second half of December or early January," one official said.

North Korea's determination to carry out an underground nuclear test was first revealed last month in The Sunday Telegraph after the communist country's secretive leader spelt out his intentions at a meeting with Russian and Chinese diplomats. On Friday the United Nations Security Council unanimously agreed to press Pyongyang to drop its plans, which it describes as "a clear threat to international peace and security".

The Russians dismissed reports that the tests would take place this weekend. "Normally, if Pyongyang makes an important and provocative announcement, it tries to heat up the tension to the maximum point, and then suddenly falls silent for a long time," one analyst said. "It needs to carefully monitor the situation, watch the reaction of the rest of the world and weigh all the pros and cons again. I would say that carrying out a nuclear test any time soon is not to North Korea's advantage."

The Russian analysis appeared to be supported yesterday by a renewed call from North Korea for the US to withdraw its forces from South Korea. "The ongoing 'reorganisation' of the US forces in South Korea is part of the arms build-up and a prelude to a war of aggression against the DPRK," the North Korean news agency KCNA reported, quoting from a statement by the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland.

The Russians believe the test, if it happens, is likely to be carried out in a horizontal tunnel more than a mile below ground at Kilju, in North Hamgyon province, in the north-east of the country where US military satellites have detected recent activity.

Chinese officials in Pynogyang agreed that a test was imminent and said it might come earlier than the Russian prediction, possibly later this month or in November.

Although the prospect of a North Korean nuclear weapon is a matter of great concern among its neighbours, the country's scientists still have a long way to go to match the sophistication of modern devices.

The announcement of North Korea's plans has raised tensions in the region and South Korean troops fired warning shots yesterday after North Korean soldiers briefly crossed the border.

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