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若干専門的ですが興味のある人はどうぞ。去年秋の投稿ですが、英国では住宅バブル崩壊の兆しが現実的となって、本文中で予測しているように住宅ローン返済不能に基づく金融機関による住宅差し押さえが急増しています。英米の不動産バブルの崩壊は世界中に強烈なインパクトを与える問題で、日本も完全に無傷では済まない恐れも。今後の10年は英国にとってのい「失われた10年」となりそうだと言う人もいます。
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Gordon Brown has been praised even by the Tories as the most succcessful Chancellor in generations, and I knew that was a rubbish all the while. He created an artificial boom simply by scrapping incentives for savings one after another, (e.g. PEP being replaced by less attractive ISA), while the market is inundated with excessive liquidity by the BOE keeping lower base rates when higher rates were badly needed to tame the housing bubble.
Feel good factor created by the housing bubble on top of the silly "equity release" relying on the illusion that house prices should go up forever, accelerated personal expenditure, which is obviously a good thing for an economy to grow for the moment, but for how long.
Actually people ought to have saved a lot more not least for their lives after retirement as state pension and the company pension schemes are reportedly full of "black halls".(Why did they not advertise these bad news much earlier before the mad spending spree & housing bubble went out of control?)
You really cannot eat your cake and have it! British economy has been thriving on the spending of the money that really should have been put aside for a rainy day. Or worse, they spent the money that did not exist, i.e. borrowed money. Consumers will have to pay dearly for it in their retirement. An octopus is known to eat its tentacles when starved. What Brown did was simply to transform the British economy into an "octopus economy".
Japan's housing bubble collapsed in 1990 and the property prices kept going down for as long as 14 years to follow, knocking off 60% of the value of properties (in some extreme cases 80%). It may be worth while to remember a typical Japanese household has 20,000 pounds cash savings (75,000 pounds including life policies, securities, etc), so they have reasonable financial buffer in the event of an economic contingency such as job loss. Still such was the scale of the collapse of the housing bubble.
I cannot imagine what would happen in the UK economy where people tend to save much less. Typical house owners might well be forced to sell out their houses fairly quickly in the face of any financial distress. And employers in this market can make people redundant fairly easily, indeed.
Sunday, October 23, 2005 9:48:19 AM
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