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太田述正コラム#1261（2006.5.28）
＜支那化するロシア極東（その１）＞
１ 始めに
恐るべき勢いでロシア極東部が支那化しつつあることが気にはなりつつ、
これまで、一度も触れる機会がありませんでした。
そこで今回、この問題を取り上げることにしました。
２ 支那化するロシア極東
(1)概観
ロシアの2002年の国勢調査によれば、ロシアの支那系住民は、1980年代末
の5,000人から、326万人へと急増していることが分かりました。
この結果ロシアで、支那系は、ロシア系（１億410万人）・タタール系
（720万人）・ウクライナ系（510万人）に次ぐ四番目の民族集団に浮上しま
した。
しかも、その四分の三以上が、シベリアと極東に住んでいます。
ロシアと中共は、4,300kmに及ぶ国境線を挟み、シベリア・極東の（これら
支那系を含む）1,800万人・・極東だけなら（米国の面積の三分の二の所に）
わずか700万人・・のロシア人が、旧満州地方等の２億5,000万人・・東北三
省だけでも１億人・・の支那人と対峙している、という状況です。
ソ連崩壊後、両国の間で国境貿易が活発化しましたが、この貿易は支那商
人の独壇場となり、それに伴って支那人がロシアに商用のため、あるいは常
駐する形で、更には永住権をとったりロシア国籍をとったりする形で次々に
進出して行ったのです。この間、シベリア・極東の生活水準がロシア平均の
約半分であること（http://english.pravda.ru/russia/25-04-2003/2663-0。
５月28日アクセス。以下同じ）に加えて、ロシア全般の経済状況の悪化に伴
う住民の西方への流出と、軍事基地の閉鎖・縮小、更にはロシア全般の出生
率低下と死亡率上昇により、シベリア・極東の人口は何百万人のオーダーで
減少したので、支那人の進出はなおさら目立ちました。
現在既に支那人は、極東の経済の30%から40%を支配しており、とりわけ軽
工業は100%その支配下にある、という見方もあります（注1）。
（注1）香港を拠点とする組織暴力団（triad＝三合會）のシベリア・極東
進出もめざましいものがある。彼らはロシア系の暴力団を駆逐ない
し服属させ、支那・香港からヤミ送金したカネや、現地の支那系や
支那人商人からせしめたみかじめ料を中華料理屋・カジノ・ホテ
ル・ホステスバー・売春宿等に投資し経営しているほか、非合法木
材伐採・漁労（中日韓に密輸出する）を行っており、極東の人口当
たり犯罪発生件数はロシア一高くなっている。なお、アフガニスタ
ン産のヘロインを扱う麻薬稼業はタジク人・カザフ人・チェチェン
人等の中央アジア系の暴力団が牛耳っており、三合會もこの分野に
だけは食い込めていない。
中共に加えて、日本や韓国との経済的結びつきも強まっており（注2）、シ
ベリア東部以東のロシアの経済は、今やほとんどロシアの西方地区とは切り
離された形で東北アジア経済圏に組み込まれるに至っています。
（注2）ウラジオストックやハバロフスクやイルクーツク（Irkutsk）で
は、現在、日本製の右ハンドルの車しか走っていないと言っても過
言ではない。
ロシアは、この支那人の攻勢に戦々恐々としています。
何せ、2010年までに、ロシア国内の支那系は1,000万人に達するだろうとも
言われている一方、毛沢東やトウ小平が、ロシアは支那から領土を奪ってお
り、ウラジオストック（Vladivostok）や ハバロフスク（Khabarovsk）等は
本来支那のものだ、と述べたことがあるからです。
支那人のこれ以上の流入を防ぐため、支那商人に対し一旦免除されていた
ビザを復活をしたり、支那人のロシア国籍取得を困難にしたりする動きがあ
りますが、実効を挙げているとは言えません。
（以上、特に断っていない限りhttp://www.worldpress.org/Asia/1651.
cfm、及びhttp://www.asiapacificms.com/articles/russia_triads/によ
る。）
（続く）
http://www.ohtan.net/column/200605/20060528.html
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【私のコメント】
2002年のロシア国勢調査でシナ系住民326万人というのはソースでもそう書いてあるが、何らかの誤りであろう。34557人で52番目の少数民族というのが真実であると思われる。
http://www.hi-net.zaq.ne.jp/nizhniy-kobe/nationalities_runk.htm
以下に引用した5/27付けのアジアタイムズの記事は注目される。中国人の脅威に最も脆弱なのはアムール州のブラゴベチェンスクとの指摘である。北大スラブ研究所教授の岩下明裕氏の「中露国境4000キロ」でも同様の記述があった。日本としても、北方領土返還の見返りにこの地域に対する支援を行ってはどうだろう？
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Central Asia
May 27, 2006
The Chinese are coming ... to Russia
By Bertil Lintner
BLAGOVESHCHENSK, KHABAROVSK and VLADIVOSTOK - The Chinese are coming! They are invading the Far East! If headlines in the new and free - but often sensational and irresponsible - Russian press are to be believed, a massive influx of Chinese into Siberia and the Russian Far East is turning the area "yellow" and Russia is about to lose its easternmost provinces.
But in cities such as Vladivostok, Khabarovsk and Blagoveshchensk the Chinese are not very much in evidence. They are there, but seldom seen outside their hotels and restaurants - and the region's ubiquitous casinos and Chinese markets. It is true, however, that Chinese merchants now dominate the region's trade and commerce. Economically, the Russian Far East is becoming separated from European Russia.
Before the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991, the Far East supplied European Russia and the other western republics with fish and crabs from the Sea of Okhotsk. The area's heavy industry produced steel, aircraft and even ships, and few foreign consumer goods were for sale.
Today, Chinese consumer goods - which are cheaper and better than those produced far away in European Russia - and even food are flooding the markets, while timber and raw materials are going south. Entire factories are being dismantled and sold as scrap metal to China. And the seafood is almost exclusively sold to South Korea and Japan.
In the long run this could also lead to demographic changes. There is a floating population of tens of thousands Chinese traders and seasonal workers who move back and forth across the border, and one day they may want to stay.
Russia's Far Eastern Federal District - a huge area covering 6,215,900 square kilometers - has only 7 million inhabitants, and that is down from 9 million in 1991. The population is declining rapidly as factories are closing down and military installations have been withdrawn.
Across the border, China's three northeastern provinces - Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning - are home to 100 million people, and the area has even by Chinese standards an unusually high unemployment rate. Or, as one Western analyst put it: "If the Russians continue to move out, the Chinese are ready to fill the resultant population vacuum in the area." And that could lead to more than just a change of the demographic balance in what still is the Russian Far East.
Officially, 40,000 Chinese live more or less permanently in the Russian Far East - which stretches from the Lena River basin to the Bering Sea - but the actual figure is believed to be much higher. The largest concentrations are in the three main cities in the area, and their economic dominance is the strongest in Blagoveshchensk, the economy of which is less developed and diversified than those of Khabarovsk and Vladivostok.
Blagoveshchensk is also on the banks of the Amur River - with the Chinese city of Heihe on the other side. Hydrofoils full of Chinese traders bringing in goods ply between the two cities every 30 minutes. There are some Russian merchants too - but they are also carrying household utensils, shoes and tools from China.
And it is not only the trade in consumer goods that is in the hands of the Chinese. The construction sector in Blagoveshchensk is dominated by a Chinese-owned company, Hua Fu, which has just began working on what will be the tallest building in the Russian Far East. Chinese New Year is not an official holiday, but it is celebrated in style with fireworks, drums and lion dances.
Even the mayor of the city and the governor of the area, Amursky oblast, usually participate as guests of honor. Amursky oblast may also be the most vulnerable for what many Russians call a "creeping occupation" by the Chinese. It is huge - 363,700 square kilometers, the same area as Japan - but with a population of only 900,000. More than 35 million live in Heilongjiang across the Amur River.
Local Russians say the land is not suitable for farming, the weather being too cold most of the year, but the Chinese who have settled there have managed to cultivate the land. According to Lyudmila Erokhina, a researcher at Vladivostok State University, Chinese businessmen have bribed local officials to acquire land from Russian farmers, and then brought in agricultural workers from China to till the fields. A major problem, she says, is that Russia has no law that regulates private ownership of land. All land still belong to the state, and individual farmers can only get the right to use it.
But more food - vegetables, fruit, pork and even eggs - are brought in from China, which has led to serious concerns about food security in the Russian Far East. "The Chinese now dominate the agricultural sector and food supplies," said Erokhina. "We are totally dependent on them."
And as much as 80% of all goods - consumer goods as well as food - are smuggled in, with no taxes or duties paid to local or central coffers. Most of the timber that is exported to China - millions of cubic meters every year - leaves the country unrecorded as well.
The government is also losing billions of rubles every year in unpaid taxes by the fishing fleets in the Sea of Okhotsk - but that, local researchers say - is mainly the fault of the government. If a fishing boat unloads its catch in a Russian port, the owner has to pay 20% in value-added tax if it is sold locally, and a 5-7% export tax if it is meant for markets in other countries. Taxes and tariffs and much lower in South Korea and Japan. So the companies fish in Russian waters, sell their catch in Busan or Niigata - and deposit the proceeds from the sales in Japanese and South Korean banks.
According to researchers at the Center for the Study of Organized Crime in Vladivostok, an estimated 15,000-17,000 tons of seafood worth US$83 million is exported every year to South Korea and Japan, and 70% of it goes to foreign ports illegally. The owner of one of the biggest fishing fleets is Sergei Darkin - the 43-year-old governor of the Primoriye krai, the region around Vladivostok - which underlines the dimensions of the problem Moscow has to deal with it its "Wild East".
Seafood smuggling may not be directly connected with Chinese economic expansion into the area, but it reflects the close ties that the Russian Far East now has with the Asia-Pacific region - and how much it has become separated from European Russia. The crews on the ships are usually a mix of Russians, Koreans, Chinese, and even Thais and Filipinos.
But the question still remains: Why are there so few Chinese, or other Asian faces, in the streets of Vladivostok, Khabarovsk and Blagoveshchensk?
Speaking on condition of anonymity, a Russian immigration officer specializing in illegal migration from China explained that most of them live in secluded communities and seldom venture out, perhaps out of fear of being victimized by xenophobic youth gangs, which are not as many and not as violent in the Far East as in, for instance, Moscow, but still exist.
Chinese workers live in dormitories inside factory compounds, where the only Russians are the guards. Agricultural workers also live on the farms, which are often surrounded by walls and fences. And once their contracts are up, most of them return to China with the money they have saved.
But that is changing, as Vilya Gelbras, a professor at Moscow State University and a China specialist, pointed out at a seminar in Blagoveshchensk last year: "Now every second Chinese arrives in Russia with a firm intention not to go back to China. Most of them cannot be classified as 'free migrants' anymore." Many acquire false documents, even citizenship, from corrupt local officials who are more willing to accept bribes from Chinese and other foreigners than from their own people.
There may not be more than 40,000, or perhaps 50,000, Chinese living in the Russian Far East. But that is 40,000 or 50,000 more than in 1991. And as the Russian exodus continues, the Chinese may, as one researcher put it, "move into an empty Siberia resulting in its detachment and reorientation towards Beijing".
It may not be happening in the way the tabloid press is saying, but Chinese expansion is a fact of life in the Russian Far East, and there is little Russia can do to stop it.
Bertil Lintner is a former correspondent with the Far Eastern Economic Review and the author of Great Leader, Dear Leader: Demystifying North Korea under the Kim Clan. He is currently a writer with Asia-Pacific Media Services.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/HE27Ag01.html
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