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元海軍と特殊部隊勤務の兵士であり、レーガン政権時代に空軍の代理次席長官であったジャック・ケリーが、8月8日付の｢ジューイッシュ・ワールド・レビュー」で、「諜報機関がイランを攻撃するために、世論を動かす材料集めをして、その準備をしているかということが重要なポイントだ」と含みのある言い方をしている。
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(抄訳）
「イランは我々の新しい標的か？ 諜報機関はそのように見ているようだ」
NBCテレビのジム・ミラスゼウスキー（Jim Miklaszewski ）は、先週木曜日の放送で、「アメリカ軍はイランから運ばれてきた高性能爆薬をイラク北東で没収した」と言っていたが、イラン問題の専門家であるマイクル・リーデン（Michael Ledeen）は、「こんなことは日常茶飯事に起こっている事だ」と言っている。
イランのシーア派が、彼らと同じシーア派教徒を殺してきたイラクのスンニ派過激集団に武器を売っていることを聞いて、この番組リポーターは驚いていたが、「自分達の敵の敵は、自分達の見方だ」という外交問題における古い諺があることを彼は忘れていたようだ。
イスラエルのモサドの推定では、イランは核爆弾の製造を２−４年のうちに実現できるだろうとのことだ。
政権に及ぼす影響力をめぐって、現在、CIA内部では派閥争いが起こっていることも注目すべき重大なポイントである。
http://jewishworldreview.com/0805/jkelly080805.php3
Is Iran our new target? Intelligence seems to say so
By Jack Kelly
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | On Wednesday, 14 Marine reservists from Ohio were killed when a powerful roadside bomb was detonated near the amtrac in which they were riding, hurling the 23 ton vehicle into the air as if it were a toy.
The incident spurred a spate of commentary by journalists about the suitability of the amtrac — designed to ferry Marines from ship to shore — as an armored personnel carrier.
The real problem, said retired Marine Col. Mackubin Owens, a professor at the Naval War College, is the increasing sophistication of terrorist bombs.
The insurgents are using bigger explosives, and have figured out how to "shape" the charge so the explosive force goes directly toward the vehicle being attacked, instead of being dissipated in all directions.
"They'll go right through a heavily armored vehicle like an M1 tank from one side right out the other side," said retired Army Gen. Barry McCaffrey.
From whence might the insurgents have acquired such weapons and expertise?
NBC's Jim Miklaszewski provided a hint in a broadcast Thursday: "U.S. military and intelligence officials tell NBC News that American soldiers intercepted a large shipment of high explosives, smuggled into northeastern Iraq from Iran only last week.
"The officials say the shipment contained dozens of shaped charges manufactured recently," Miklaszewski said.
This was old news to Iran expert Michael Ledeen, who'd learned about the seizure a week before Miklaszewski's broadcast. A reporter was baffled by Ledeen's ho-hum response.
"So what?" Ledeen said. "It happens almost every day."
The reporter was amazed that the Shia Muslims who run Iran would supply deadly weapons to Sunni extremists in Iraq who use them, often, to kill Shia Muslims.
The reporter's amazement was a product of the same blindness that declared there could be no cooperation between Saddam Hussein and al Qaida, because the latter were religious fanatics who disliked Saddam because he was secular.
They forgot the oldest adage in diplomacy is "the enemy of my enemy is my friend."
"The Koran, whatever the particular exegesis employed, is no obstacle to tactical alliances, any more than Mein Kampf prevented...Hitler, Mussolini and Stalin from making alliances with their presumed mortal enemies when circumstances warranted," Ledeen wrote.
The journalist's blindness regrettably is shared by many in the CIA, whose dismal record of forecasting developments in the Middle East suggest more weight should be given to the facts on the ground, and less to glib ideological assumptions.
It is within this context that one must assess the leak to the Washington Post Tuesday of portions of a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran. The portions leaked said analysts didn't think Iran could develop a nuclear bomb for another ten years.
The analysis is preposterous on its face, because we developed an atom bomb from scratch in less than four years, and knowledge about how to build one has spread widely since then. The estimate by Israel's Mossad that Iran will have the bomb in two to four years almost certainly is closer to the mark.
I'm more interested in the fact of the leak than in its contents. It appears that a faction within the CIA is once again attempting to use the selective leaking of classified material to influence administration policy. "There may be some involved in the report who are frightened that Bush would use anything more imminent as a pretext to bomb," said Henry Sokolski, director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, who told the Christian Science Monitor that the CIA's estimate is "absurd."
This is a reprise of the uranium in Africa kerfuffle. Joseph Wilson was sent to Niger, at the urging of his wife, Valerie Plame, not to find out whether Saddam was trying to buy yellowcake, but to find reasons for claiming he was not. Wilson subsequently lied about what he found in leaks to two journalists and in an oped in the New York Times. (According to the London Telegraph, Plame was put on an enforced, unpaid leave of absence last year, which suggests disciplinary action.)
But Ledeen is right that Iranian support for the insurgency in Iraq is old news. I've heard dozens of such reports in the last two years. By highlighting this seizure, is military intelligence trying to prepare public opinion for action against Iran?
JWR contributor Jack Kelly, a former Marine and Green Beret, was a deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force in the Reagan administration. Comment by clicking here.
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