| ★阿修羅♪ > 政治・選挙・ＮＨＫ13 > 140.html ★阿修羅♪ |
|
| Tweet |
(回答先: “米政府や多国籍企業が 郵政民営化で一番もうける”(WSJの記事より） 投稿者 kerogaso 日時 2005 年 9 月 01 日 11:49:03)
WSJ記事の原文を載せておきます。
Who Gains From a Japan Post Split?
If Privatization Plan Clears,
About $3 Trillion in Assets
Would Get Redistributed
By AGNES T. CRANE
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
August 26, 2005; Page C4
There are plenty of political hurdles to clear before Japan's mammoth postal system heads toward privatization, but the possibility of reallocating some of its $3 trillion in assets into foreign bonds already has analysts crunching the numbers.
Japan Post is more than just mail. The postal savings operations, with $1.9 trillion in assets, would constitute Japan's largest bank if broken out into a stand-alone entity. It is also a life insurer that manages approximately $1.1 trillion, according to Citigroup analysts who expect a good portion of these funds to flow into other markets if the banking and insurance operations fall into private hands.
[10-Year Treasury Note Yield]
By comparing Japan Post's asset allocation with those in the private sector, Citigroup calculates that U.S. Treasurys, European bonds and Japanese and foreign stocks would be the big winners if the reform goes through. The big loser would be the Japanese bond market that has benefited from the postal system's preference for domestic sovereigns.
The banking and insurance arms hold around 187 trillion yen, or about $1.7 trillion, in Japanese government bonds, or about one-quarter of the current outstanding stock, according to Rob Carnell, an economist at ING Financial Markets in London. In contrast, they have invested only about 8.5 trillion yen in foreign securities.
With the 10-year JGB benchmark yielding less than 1.5% compared with 4.17% on a comparable Treasury note, it isn't hard to fathom why new owners of the postal savings and insurance would cast around for better returns.
Citigroup estimates a change in ownership would drain $1.375 trillion out of Japanese bonds, including JGBs and municipal and corporate debt, as either new management searches for more lucrative investments or customers shift their business elsewhere. The analysts estimate that $127 billion would go into U.S. bonds, $64 billion into European fixed income, and a whopping $521 billion into Japanese equities.
These are big numbers, but any shift in allocation would take place over a 10-year period, blunting the impact on financial markets. According to the proposal on the table, the privatization process that splits the postal system into four separate operations -- mail delivery, an over-the-counter service company, a bank and an insurance company -- wouldn't start until 2007. The savings and insurance arms wouldn't be fully in private hands until 2017.
"It is one of those things in the back of the markets' mind," but it is certainly nothing anyone expects to make a huge splash in the near term, said Mr. Carnell of ING.
Before any of this happens, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has to get the lawmakers to pass the reform bills. He is hoping next month's elections will make the difference.
[Treasury Yield Curve]
Earlier this month, rebel members of his own party, the Liberal Democratic Party, helped to vote down the bills. In response, the prime minister dissolved the lower house and called for snap elections on Sept. 11, in a bet that a new configuration of lawmakers would be more friendly toward reform.
"The greatest likelihood [is] that Koizumi's coalition will be able to maintain a majority," said Ross Schaap, an analyst at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group in New York. So far, the voters appear to be leaning in that direction.
If Mr. Koizumi's gamble pays off, it would mark an important step toward softening up the nation's rigidities that analysts blame for hamstringing Japan's growth over the past 15 years. "Through that you'd get some kind of market reaction" in which investors sell Japanese government bonds in expectation of higher growth rates, ING's Mr. Carnell said.
Treasury Bonds
Long-dated Treasurys stood out from the pack yesterday, posting reasonable gains in a performance that has the benchmark yield curve -- the difference between the two- and 10-year Treasury yield -- on the cusp of becoming flat.
Since a successful sale of the new 10-year note some two weeks ago, the 10-year yield has been edging lower, helped by the covering of bearish positions. The steady rise in oil prices has also helped Treasurys, with higher energy costs seen hampering the economy in the months ahead.
At 4 p.m., the benchmark 10-year note was up 4/32 point, or $1.25 per $1,000 face value, at 100 23/32. Its yield fell to 4.161% from 4.175% Wednesday, as yields move inversely to prices. The 30-year bond was up 15/32 point at 115 13/32 to yield 4.367%, down from 4.394%.
-- Michael Mackenzie and Shumita Sharma contributed to this article
▲このページのＴＯＰへ HOME > 政治・選挙・ＮＨＫ13掲示板
題名には必ず「阿修羅さんへ」と記述してください。