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http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htmからの抜粋を下に載せました。私が随分前から言い続けて来ましたように、アメリカの経済データは全くのデタラメです。最近、アメリカの経済専門家も漸く嘘に気がついて、下にあるような記事が増えてきました。日本人の経済専門家はアメリカが発表した経済データをそのまま信用して使って、それから得た結論を滔々と述べていますが、これらは全く見当はずれで何の役にも立たない所か、嘘のデータに基づいた結論から将来の予測をしているのですから、ひどいデマを流しているのと同じです。
アメリカ政府だけでなく日本政府も、多分アメリカの圧力で、同様な経済データの改竄や全くの嘘を日本国民に発表していると見なして良いでしょう。日本国民に出来ることは自分の生活環境から得た体験のみを頼りに日本経済を判断する事です。政府の発表は全て嘘だと決めつけて、完全に無視する事です。
Mr. King has presented a very solid case in his past postings that the job creation numbers have been consistently overstated in government data. I somehow suspect the numbers on Friday will disagree with the Challenger report, but take it with a grain…we live in an era of managed markets and managed data. It is interesting to see some of the comments about phony government data hitting the mainstream press. With thanks to Bill Murphy for catching this one in yesterday’s Midas:
From Alan Abelson, Barrons, July 4, 2005
"Sometimes perusing the handiwork of this nation's worth number-crunchers we get the feeling we're not in the good ol' USA but in the Soviet Union, circa 1970....WE experienced it again last week, on receipt from some eagle-eyed readers of the results of their close reading of the final version of the first quarter GDP...The difference between the 3.5% preliminary rise reported for GDP and the final 3.8% released last week is, even by our shaky math, 0.3%. As it happens, that also was pretty much the amount by which the official inflation measure, the GDP implicit price deflator, was revised downward, to 2.89% from 3.16%.
OK? What caused the big drop in inflation, and hence the rise in GDP was ....housing. We kid you not. According to the BEA, housing prices, which they figure rose at 5.4%, 9.1%, 6.8%, and 3.8% annual rates respectively in the last four quarters of '04, fell to a 1.1% rate in the first quarter of '05. Funny, we had the impression that housing in January-March was on fire, and prices more than rising apace. Not so, say the lads and lassies at the BEA. They do concede that spending on housing was up a robust 11.5% in the quarter. But prices were up a meager 1.1%. Come on comrade, tell us another. Or better yet, tell anyone who bought or sold a house in the first quarter. The buyers, anyway, could use a good laugh."
So now we can see the adjustment to move GDP higher was nothing more than pure inflation…no real growth. Maybe that’s why the markets didn’t react to the strong growth number from the ISM report. Maybe oil WILL go to $80 and the Fed will keep raising interest rates. The CPI has already been muted to show “low inflation” and most recently the calculations have been changed to mute the rise in the CRB Index. If you would like to see some of the details surrounding the changes to the CRB, please read Ed Steer’s “A Eulogy for the CRB.” Mr. Steer opens his essay with, “In light of the deliberate disinformation coming from within the American government regarding the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the (un)employment statistics from the BLS; it should come as little surprise to anyone that one of the most watched benchmarks that highlights commodity prices is about to be radically altered. This benchmark is the CRB.”
It is clear to me that our growth is overstated because inflation is clearly understated. The dollar has been in rally mode because the big spin on Wall Street has the U.S. economy growing faster than the economies of other countries around the globe. I would say the U.S. is better at inflating the economy (asset prices) without showing any consumer inflation than all the other countries around the globe. As long as the new money creations show-up as asset inflation (higher stock, bond and real estate prices), everyone is happy. When the new money shows up as higher consumer inflation, all the red flags go up in the air…that’s why high energy costs are not inflationary…they have spun the oil increases as deflationary by being a drag on the economy.
Now let’s take a quick look at the asset inflation in the real estate markets. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage activity is on the rise once again. The MBA reported its applications index rose 9.6% with the purchase index higher by 9.1% and the re-fi index up by 10.2%. The 30-year fixed rate gained 11 basis points to 5.58% and the average one-year ARM moved up 18 basis points to 4.60%. Overall activity in real estate still remains quite brisk as reported on U.S. Newswire this morning:
“WASHINGTON, July 6 /U.S. Newswire/ -- The Pending Home Sales Index, the leading indicator for the housing market, slipped from near-record levels but remains historically high, according to the National Association of Realtors(r).
The Pending Home Sales Index, (see note 1) based on data collected for May, stands at 124.9, which is 2.0 percent below April but 3.7 percent above May 2004. April's downwardly revised reading of 127.5 was second only to a record of 128.1 in October 2004.
The index is based on pending sales of existing homes, including single-family and condos; a sale is pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed. Pending home sales typically close within one or two months of signing.
David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, said the index shows robust home sales can be expected for June and July. "Pending home sales are at the third highest on record, so we're looking at a banner year for the housing market," he said. "To put the index in perspective, we're running about 25 percentage points higher than what is considered to be historically strong." April and May were the highest months on record for existing-home sales."
In the earlier quote from Barron’s we learned the first quarter GDP numbers were adjusted higher because housing prices were adjusted lower to show the growth in home prices of 1.1% for first quarter 2005. Clearly the government’s numbers are in disagreement with the NAR…seems to me the government’s data should be called into question. The discrepancies can only be justified by the fact that we are at war. Our enemies want to take us down economically, therefore the U.S. authorities feel justified in distorting the data…it’s that simple! We are fighting to maintain the single reserve currency of the world, while others would like to see the U.S. dollar knocked off its pedestal. All is fair in love and war???
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I said earlier the dollar has been in rally mode because Wall Street is spinning U.S. economic growth as stronger than our biggest competitors, but we have kept our asset prices high with continuous money pumping from the Fed. We have growth because of inflationary stimulus, primarily from credit growth because of artificially low interest rates. I believe this dollar rally is getting a bit overdone when we stop and take a look at the fundamentals. How much longer can we continue borrowing our way to prosperity?
From “The Road to Destruction” by James R. Cook:
“You can continue to believe the wizards of Wall Street and Washington, who claim their inflationary brew will perpetuate prosperity, or you can listen to the classical economists who have combined the lessons of history with the basic principles from two centuries of sound economics. Whether you choose to listen or not, be assured that the following inevitable consequences of inflation will cloud your future; an ongoing financial and economic crisis, moral and cultural disintegration, stagflation, bigger government, escalating hatred of business, runaway social spending, the criminalization of success, higher taxes and a shrinking dollar. Somewhere out there lies complete and total collapse. That utter collapse is coming as surely as the sun will rise tomorrow and the government will keep inflating until the bitter end.”
"The damned Fed is creating as much money in one lousy quarter as they averaged in a whole year in the 90s!" Mogambo Guru - editor
"Bank credit expanded an amazing $1.054 trilling during the quarter to $7 trillion. That was a growth rate of 13.4%." Doug Noland - economist
"Boatloads of credit are being created outside the banking system. Much of it destined to fund second homes in Vail." Rob Peebles -analyst
In terms of credit growth, this is the greatest inflation orgy in history." Dr. Kurt Richebacher - economist
"The only thing I'm completely confident of is that the end result of this irresponsible money-printing by the Fed, lending by the financial institutions, and behavior on the part of the public will be a tremendous amount of pain for everyone." Bill Fleckenstein – editor
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