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(回答先: あっしらさんのもってまわった長ったらしさが好き！さんの投稿です。 投稿者 hou 日時 2005 年 8 月 20 日 02:03:57)
私があのグラフを投稿した意図は、結局借金帝国のアメリカは日本からの資金流入がこなければ経済が回っていかないのではないか、という問題意識から投稿したので、ここで直近の米経済のマクロ的見通しや財政問題そのものを議論したいというわけではありません。
もし私がファンドマネージャーであれば、金利の上昇が見込まれ、原油高が続き、双子の赤字も続く見通しがある中では、怖くて米国債券は買いませんが、しかし上司がハゲタカ親分で「買え！」と恫喝されたら途中での債券価格下落などおかまいなしに買い支えざるを得ないでしょう。
上記のグラフはもともとジェフレンズドットコムというサイトから貼り付けましたが、もとのソースはCongressional Budget Office米国議会予算部（すみません日本語訳が不正確かもしれません）のﾃﾞｰﾀから作成されているようです。
そしてこの中ではっきり言及されていますね、
http://www.cbo.gov/Index.cfm
The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2006 to 2015
January 25, 2005
Section 3 of 14
http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=6060&sequence=2&from=0
The Outlook for Federal Debt
The federal government's debt falls into two main categories: debt that is held by the public (in the form of marketable and nonmarketable Treasury securities) and debt that is held by government accounts. Debt held by the public is the more meaningful measure in terms of the relationship between federal debt and the economy. It represents debt that the Department of the Treasury issues to raise cash to fund the operations and pay off the maturing liabilities of the federal government. Debt held by government accounts consists of securities that the Treasury issues to various federal agencies. Those intragovernmental IOUs are used as an accounting device to track cash flows relating to specific federal programs, such as Social Security.
Debt Held by the Public
When the federal government runs a deficit, the Treasury borrows money from
the public by selling securities in the capital markets to various buyers,
such as foreign investors, mutual funds, state and local governments, commercial banks, insurance companies, and individuals. Of those groups, foreign investors (governments, businesses, and individuals) are currently the largest owners of federal debt issued to the public. They hold nearly $1.9 trillion--or more than 43 percent--of the roughly $4.3 trillion that is now outstanding.
そしてこの文章を見てください。
「こうした外国諸国では日本、中国、イギリスの投資家が米国債の最大のホールダーである（注１３）日本の中央銀行と民間機関が保有しているのは約７１５０億ドルであり、２００４年に購入された額に比較し２２９０億ドルの増額である。これはその歳のアメリカの赤字のおよそ５５％である。全体として、海外投資家は、昨年およそ３９９０億ドルのトレジャリーを購入したが、それは２００４年の赤字額に１３００億ドル少ない額であった。」
Among foreign countries, investors in Japan, China, and the United Kingdom have the largest holdings of Treasury securities.(13) The central bank and private entities in Japan alone hold about $715 billion in such securities, more than $229 billion of which were bought in 2004--equal to roughly 55 percent of the U.S. deficit that year. In all, foreign investors purchased nearly $399 billion in Treasury securities last year--just $13 billion less than the size of the 2004 deficit.
(注13)財務省の「財務省証券の主な海外保有先」
See Department of the Treasury, "Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities" (December 15, 2004), available at www.ustreas.gov/tic/mfh.txt. That information should be viewed as approximate because the Treasury's data indicate the country where a purchase was made, which is not necessarily the purchaser's home country
http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/mfh.txt
２００５年度米国財務証券の主な海外保有者 （単位１０億ドル・月末）
６月 ５月 ４月 ３月 ２月 １月
日本 680.2 686.2 685.7 680.5 680.3 679.3
中国 243.2 243.5 240.5 223.5 224.9 223.5
英国 140.9 132.5 125.2 122.2 111.6 101.1
（以下略）
総額 1999.7 2027.4 2000.8 1977.5 1946.3 1908.6
内訳
海外公的機関 1228.4 1241.7 1236.1 1227.9 1242.5 1238.3
Treasury Bills 205.2 229.0 230.1 235.8 235.5 242.6 Notes&Bonds 1023.2 1012.8 1006.0 992.0 1007.0 995.7
Department of the Treasury/Federal Reserve Board
8/15/2005
1/ Estimated foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury marketable and non-
marketable bills, bonds, and notes reported under the Treasury
International Capital (TIC) reporting system are based on annual
Surveys of Foreign Holdings of U.S. Securities and on monthly data.
2/ United Kingdom includes Channel Islands and Isle of Man.
3/ Caribbean Banking Centers include Bahamas, Bermuda, Cayman
Islands, Netherlands Antilles and Panama.
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