現在地 HOME > 原発 劣化ウラン フッ素2 > 665.html
★阿修羅♪
|
現在地 HOME > 原発 劣化ウラン フッ素2 > 665.html
★阿修羅♪
|
|
| Tweet |
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/03/14/business/uranium.html
New Asian plants fuel uranium boom
By David Lague International Herald Tribune
Tuesday, March 15, 2005
HONG KONG After decades of sinking prices, a uranium boom is under way as orders for new nuclear power plants in Asia mount and a vast stockpile of fuel from former Soviet nuclear weapons decommissioned after the cold war begins to run down.
.
The spot price for concentrated uranium oxide, or yellowcake, the form in which uranium is sold, has tripled to almost $21.75 a pound from a 20-year low of $7.10 a pound in December 2000. Some mining analysts expect it to reach $30 a pound or higher next year.
.
This strong demand for uranium is a primary reason why the world's biggest mining company, BHP Billiton, on March 8 offered $7.3 billion in a takeover bid for WMC Resources. WMC owns an estimated 38 percent of the world's uranium reserves at its Olympic Dam mine site in the South Australian desert. Both companies are based in Melbourne.
.
Projections from the International Atomic Energy Agency show that more than 60 nuclear power stations will come online by 2020, bringing the number of these plants to over 500. Most of the new reactors will be in Asia.
.
Of the last 31 nuclear power plants connected to power grids worldwide, 22 were in Asia. Eighteen of the 27 nuclear plants under construction are in Asia.
.
China, which is ranked second only to the United States as the biggest consumer of energy, has nine nuclear power stations and plans to add 27 by 2020 in what senior government officials have said is an attempt to lift the share of the country's electricity generated from these plants to 4 percent from 1.4 percent.
.
Australia and Canada have the biggest uranium reserves and account for about half of mine output, according to statistics collected by the Uranium Information Center in Melbourne. Other countries, including Russia, Niger, Kazakhstan and Namibia, also have sizable reserves.
.
"I'm extremely bullish," said Patricia Mohr, vice president and commodities market specialist at Scotiabank in Toronto. "There is a huge and ongoing gap between primary uranium production from mines and consumption in nuclear power plants around the world. Uranium prices have already had quite a run and I think there is more upside."
.
Already, the big suppliers are lining up to provide nuclear fuel to China. Australia's trade minister, Mark Vaile, held talks in Beijing on March 9-10 with Chinese officials about uranium sales. Uranium sales were also on the agenda during a January visit to Beijing by Canada's prime minister, Paul Martin.
.
India, Asia's other rising economic giant, has 14 reactors in operation, 8 under construction and more on the drawing board as part of a long-term plan to increase nuclear electricity output to about 30 percent by 2050 from about 3 percent. Japan and South Korea are also building new nuclear plants.
.
Eastern Europe, including Russia, is also contributing strongly to demand for uranium, with eight nuclear power plants under construction in this region, the atomic energy agency said.
.
Even the existing 441 power stations in 30 countries that generate about 16 percent of global electricity are soon expected to outstrip their fuel supplies unless more uranium is mined.
.
Industry experts estimate that the supply of fuel diverted from decommissioned Russian nuclear weapons and stockpiles held by utilities will soon be insufficient to close the gap between the estimated 67,000 tons of uranium consumed each year and the 40,000 tons produced from mines.
.
For Steve Kidd, director of strategy and research at the World Nuclear Association, which is based in London and represents 120 producers and consumers of uranium, it is still too early to talk about a nuclear renaissance.
.
But he said the trend was encouraging.
.
"If primary production of uranium does not go up, there will be shortage," he said. "It is good news for producers."
.
An outlook like this for uranium seemed highly unlikely after the Three Mile Island nuclear accident, in Pennsylvania in 1979, and the Chernobyl disaster, in Ukraine in 1986, set public opinion strongly against nuclear power in many developed countries. Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands and Sweden have opted to phase out nuclear power, and there have been no new nuclear power plants ordered in the United States since the early 1970s.
.
Paradoxically, as fears mount over the climatic impact of greenhouse gases emitted from the burning of fossil fuels, perceptions about the environmental benefits of nuclear power might be what are beginning to tilt the debate in favor of new reactors in the West. For countries that are committed to cleaner air under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which took effect Feb. 16, more nuclear power could be one strategy for curbing emissions.
.
The United States is not a signatory to the Kyoto Protocol, but President George W. Bush has used the low greenhouse gas emissions from nuclear energy as part of the justification for his administration's support for more nuclear power plants. Three U.S. groups have begun formal applications for combined construction and operating licenses.
.
Mitch Singer, a spokesman for the nuclear industry lobbying group, the Nuclear Energy Institute in Washington, said there were definite signs of a revival in the U.S. nuclear power industry.
.
Certainly, investors are enjoying uranium's recovery. The Canadian company Cameco, the world's biggest publicly listed uranium producer, has seen its share price climb to 58.40 Canadian dollars, or $48.39, from 15.49 dollars in October 2003, before sliding back to about 53 dollars.
.
Shares of Energy Resources Australia, the world's third-biggest producer, peaked Feb. 25 at 12.20 Australian dollars, or $9.63, up from 2.90 dollars in January 2003, before slipping to about 11 dollars. ERA is 68 percent-owned by Rio Tinto Group.
.
BHP Billiton's offer of $6.20 a share for WMC topped a rival bid from Xstrata, based in Zug, Switzerland, which valued WMC shares at $5.53.
.
The boom has also prompted plans for mine expansion and exploration in an industry dominated by a few major players. WMC has plans to spend $3 billion on Olympic Dam to make it the biggest producer in the world. Cameco is also planning major increases in output at its McArthur River mine, in Saskatchewan, Canada.
.
Exploration languished for decades while the price remained low but that is changing. "We have quite a boom going on in Northern Canada looking for new uranium," Mohr said.
.
What gives many analysts confidence that demand will be sustained is the seemingly insatiable demand for electricity in Asia.
.
For Asian governments, building more nuclear power plants reduces reliance on imported fossil fuels, an important consideration as competition for energy and control of shipping lanes looms as a potential source of tension or even conflict.
.
Nuclear reactors also offer some relief from the choking air pollution that envelops most industrial cities in China and India, where most electricity is generated from coal.
.
As developing economies, China and India are exempt from the need to cut greenhouse emissions under the Kyoto Protocol.
.
However, the atomic energy agency says ambitious nuclear power plant building programs will be an important tool for India and China to cut these emissions over the longer term.
▲このページのＴＯＰへ HOME > 原発 劣化ウラン フッ素2掲示板
題名には必ず「阿修羅さんへ」と記述してください。