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地球温暖化の原因となる二酸化炭素の出ない原子力発電が注目され、ロシア、中国、インドで原子炉が作られる計画になっていること、そして石油価格の高騰からウラニウムの市場価格が20％近くも上昇するのではないかとの予測が出された。ウラン価格はここ2年でキロ24ドルから55ドルに上昇し、この1月には長期の取引価格は65ドルになっている。取引価格は50ドルから75ドルの間を推移すると見られるが、66ドル以上は確かな根拠のある価格だとの予測もある。
http://www.kommersant.com/page.asp?id=544392
Atomic Spring for Uranium Exporters // Uranium needs to be found
Uranium world market
According to the experts’ evaluations, the world uranium prices may go up some 20 percent. Consulting company International Nuclear, Inc., has published this forecast. The extracting companies don’t manage the increased demand for the combustibles by the atomic stations that produce one sixth of the electricity consumed in the world. Russian experts foresee the rise of the price too.
During the last two years, the contract uranium price, at which the energy companies buy it, arose twice as much: from $24.2 for a kilogram to $55. The prices on the long-term contracts reached $63-65 per kilogram this January. According to the forecast of International Nuclear, Inc., the prices will float at the level of $50-75 per kilogram. “The forecast of the contract price for uranium above $66 per kilogram is well-grounded”-Bloomberg agency cites Dustin Harrow, the head of iNi. Harrow is sure the fears about the possible deficit of uranium on the world market are caused by the plans of China, India and Russia to build new reactors. Besides, the price development for oil and fears about the global warmth sired up the interest towards atomic stations as the most ecologically clean source of energy. According to the Harrow’s calculations the deficit will appear in 2006 and get its climax by 2010.
There are 439 reactors in 31 countries. The U.S. atomic stations produce 20 percent of the whole energy consumed in the country. France does 78 percent, and Russia does some 16 percent, but in the European part of the state the index is around 40 percent. The deficit of uranium on the market is caused by the fact that Russia, the biggest uranium exporter after Canada, changed its behavior on the market in 2003 and reduced the supply volume to provide the тку atomic stations that it plans to build by 2020. In the framework of the Russian-American agreement HEU-LEU, Tehsnabexport asserted the right of Russia to manage its uranium quotas [see Vladimir Smirnov’s interview].
Actually, the gap between extraction and need of uranium is on the level of 40-45 percent during the last ten years. According to iNi, in 1985-2003, the commercial resources of uranium fined down to 50 percent. 55 percent of the uranium extracted was used in 2003. And the sock reserve of uranium - the main source of deficit settlement is becoming weak. 87 percent of the world uranium extraction provides seven leading producers. More than a half falls on Canada and Australia. Russia is on the fifth position after Kazakhstan and Niger. To keep its position Russia has to develop new deposits of uranium.
“Rosatom is analyzing our resources of uranium and the promising deposits and is paying attention to power increasing of the developed deposits and geologic exploration. The ageny budget has some tens of millions rubles.”-said the head of the Federal Agency on Atomic Energy [Rosatom] Aleksander Rumyzntsev. “Russia may face the problem of deficit in some 20-30 years if it does nothing with the exploration now. So, we’re doing it now.”-he noticed, and also said that in this question they agree in views with Ministry of Nature and its minister Yuriy Trutnev.
The aggravate competition on the world uranium market seems to make the state institution rival. Some years ago there was definite delimitation: TVEL united all the extractive factories and producing factories and Tehsnabexport was just a trade company. Now the situation is different.
Rosatom is sure the two rivals won’t compete but will just fix the ambits: TVEL will remain the only company extracting uranium in Russia and Tehsnabexport will aim efforts at establishing joint ventures abroad. Apparently the heads of the two companies have their own opinions. Besides, Tehsnabexport markets itself as a holding company- the extractive and producing in the future- in the sphere of the prepared investment projects of isotopes production. However, we shouldn’t be afraid of the rivalry: before the companies start to claim for the new deposits of uranium, the last should be found, explored and evaluated. That takes time.
By the way, the problem of lack of uranium for nuclear fuels could be solved differently. The usage of the waste nuclear fuels- its remnants are extracted, processed and put into production. But the regenerated raw material production takes complex technology processes and that would make the fuels more expensive. Though there are plenty of waste nuclear fuels it takes a lot of investments to put the reprocessing into practice. Let us remind that IAEA has been concerned about the problem for a long time and now is analyzing how to combine efforts of the countries that have the alike technologies. The same relates with the production of MOX [mixed oxide fuel] where not only uranium but also plutonium is used. Its sources are not great. So, that’s more expensive. That’s why Russia pays more attention to geological exploration.
by Alena Kornysheva
Russian Article as of Feb. 04, 2005 http://www.kommersant.ru/doc.html?docId=544392
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