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NYTトップ記事：イラク主権移譲の遅れと評議会の分裂はアメリカを危機に陥れる。
最大宗派シーアのシスタニ師の直接選挙要求は、ボデーブローじゃ。破落戸アメリカにも、効き目を現しつつある。
選挙となれば、カンプチアの先例もあり、国連（正確な訳は連合国）の平和維持作戦への移行も見えてくる。
国連は今、明治維新にたとえれば、薩長土肥が利用した破れ長屋の貧乏天皇家のようなもの。御幣担ぎが上手でなければ、天下は取れまいに。
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/26/international/middleeast/26IRAQ.html?th
January 26, 2004
Delays and Split on Iraqi Council Imperil U.S. Plan
By EDWARD WONG
BAGHDAD, Iraq, Jan. 25 -- A powerful cleric's demand for quick elections has delayed the drafting of an interim constitution and created a serious new split in the Iraqi Governing Council, officials said Sunday, further undermining the Bush administration's troubled plan for a political transition in Iraq.
Without an interim constitution, which is supposed to be completed in less than five weeks, the entire timetable for an American transfer of power to an Iraqi government by June 30 could be disrupted. And the divide in the Governing Council has presented the American authorities with a new complication in pushing their plan for a caucus-style process for selecting a transitional national assembly, which now seems increasingly endangered. Many Shiite Arab council members are supporting direct elections, while Sunni Arab and Kurdish members say it is impossible to hold them.
The underlying obstacle to the Bush administration's plans is the unrelenting demand of Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq's most influential Shiite cleric, for direct elections for the assembly.
American officials and the reclusive cleric, through his representatives, say they are counting on the United Nations to send a team to Iraq to determine whether direct elections are possible, given the continuing insurgent war and lack of voter rolls. Kofi Annan, secretary general of the United Nations, is expected to announce as early as Monday whether he will send such a team.
The deadline for an interim constitution is Feb. 28, but a drafting committee of about 10 people has slowed its work because the outcome of the wrangling over elections will affect how the constitution is written, said Feisal al-Istrabadi, the senior legal adviser to Adnan Pachachi, head of the Governing Council.
The drafting committee has also not formally met in the last few weeks because several members, including Mr. Pachachi, have been traveling abroad. He led a delegation of council members to the United Nations and Washington to discuss the impasse over direct elections. If a United Nations assessment team is sent and reaches a conclusion quickly enough, then the writers of the interim constitution, called the fundamental law, may be able to finish it by the Feb. 28 deadline, said Mr. Istrabadi, a law professor at DePauw University.
He said Mr. Pachachi had hoped that the committee, which usually meets once a week, would finish the document several weeks before the deadline so it would not appear that the authorities were "dropping it on the heads of the Iraqi people."
But there is little chance now for completing it so soon, Mr. Istrabadi said.
"We need the U.N. here very quickly," he said. "Most of us would like to adhere to the Feb. 28 deadline."
The deadline for an interim constitution was set in an agreement outlining the transfer of sovereignty that was reached on Nov. 15 between the Coalition Provisional Authority and the Governing Council.
Dan Senor, a spokesman for the authority, said American officials still intended that the document be finished by Feb. 28.
The Nov. 15 agreement states that the interim constitution needs to be approved by the occupation authority. But Ayatollah Sistani said on Jan. 11 that the interim constitution and any agreement to keep American soldiers in Iraq must be approved by a directly elected assembly.
The interim constitution is supposed to include a bill of rights, details of a federalist governing structure for Iraq, a mechanism for judicial review and a timetable for the drafting of a permanent constitution and elections under that constitution.
Governing Council members have struggled to keep the document on track. Earlier this month, several members met with Kurdish leaders in the mountain town of Salahuddin to listen to demands for a federalist structure that would allow the Kurds to retain broad autonomy in northern Iraq.
Kurdish leaders want such rights enshrined in the interim constitution, and Governing Council members reportedly agreed in principle at the meeting to honor many of the Kurdish demands.
On the Governing Council, whose 25 members were picked by the occupation authority, the clear division that has emerged is over the election issue, with many Shiite Arabs pitted against the Sunni Arabs and Kurds, said an occupation official. Most Shiite members are supporting Ayatollah Sistani's call for direct elections, he said, while representatives of the other groups are against the idea. The council has 13 Shiite Arab members, 5 Sunni Arabs, 5 Kurds, a Turkmen and a Christian.
"The caucuses were getting a lot of support immediately after the council signed the agreement with the C.P.A.," said the official, who agreed to speak on the condition of anonymity. "But when Sistani spoke about elections, some people out of respect, and maybe not even too enthusiastic about elections, began to say they respect what he's saying."
Prominent Shiite members of the council often visit Ayatollah Sistani in the holy city of Najaf. Any sign of support by the ayatollah instantly bestows legitimacy on a politician, and American and Iraqi officials are questioning the motives of some council members who now say they support the call for direct elections.
Direct elections for the transitional assembly would favor the Shiites, who make up more than 60 percent of the population. Sunni Arab and Kurdish officials have privately said that they fear that an overwhelmingly Shiite assembly will not honor the rights and requests of minority groups in Iraq.
The occupation official's assessment of the council split is supported by statements made by council members in interviews and news conferences. Prominent Shiite members say they want direct elections, while Sunni Arab and Kurdish leaders -- including Mr. Pachachi -- argue they do not believe such elections are possible given the June 30 deadline.
Military and United Nations officials say the continuing war may be the biggest obstacle to holding elections, though the Bush administration has yet to publicly acknowledge that. On Sunday, an American soldier died of injuries suffered during a rocket-propelled grenade attack on Saturday night while on patrol in the town of Bayji, the American command said.
Also on Sunday, a Kiowa helicopter crashed in the Tigris River in Mosul while searching for a missing soldier from a capsized boat, and both crew members were reported missing, The Associated Press said. A military spokeswoman said the cause was under investigation.
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