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アテネ発イスラエル紙ハアレツ：サダムは秘匿破壊兵器取引か他
この投稿の最後には、阿修羅戦争44掲示板の「あっしら」投稿、「サダム・フセイン拘束劇」を読む − 第一報を受けて −との暗合を示唆する。
このハアレツ記事は、実に面白い。ちょうど、その時に、イスラエル・イラク・クルド、イラン、その他のアラブ関係者が参加し、イラクの今後を相談する会議が、ギリシャのアテネで開かれていたこと、逮捕情報はクルドからであることをも、同時に伝えている。
「サダムは秘匿破壊兵器取引か」というのは、イラク代表団の一人の観測である。
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http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/371895.html
Saddam could reveal arms cache in deal
By Ze'ev Schiff
ATHENS - Deposed Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein could be offered a deal in which he would give his captors information on if and how he hid weapons of mass destruction and if he smuggled some of them into Syria. In exchange, he would face life imprisonment and not be executed for war crimes, senior Iraqis attending a conference here on the future of the region have hinted.
Saddam was captured, alive and well, on Saturday near his hometown of Tikrit. U.S. troops found him hiding in a subterranean hole. He did not resist.
The Iraqi figures also said that, even if the number of concealed weapons of mass destruction is not large, Saddam will certainly know who he appointed to take charge of the operation and in what area the weapons are being stored.
The possibility that Saddam transferred some of the weapons to Syria was raised on the eve of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, when satellite pictures showed convoys moving from Iraq to Syria. It is still unknown precisely what was transported in these convoys, but it is clear that this was a secret operation between Iraq and Syria.
It was a unique experience to hear the news of Saddam's capture while in the company of Iraqis, Kurds, Iranians and other Arabs. One of the Kurdish representatives burst into the conference room in tears and demanded an immediate halt to the discussions. "Saddam Hussein has been captured," he said, adding they had received word from Kurdistan, before the television reports. The delegate also claimed that most of the information leading to the deposed dictator's arrest had come from the Kurds, who had organized their own intelligence network and for months had been trying to uncover Saddam's tracks.
He further claimed that some six months ago, the Kurds had discovered that Saddam's wife was in the Tikrit area. This intelligence was transferred to the Americans, but the Kurds never received any news on what the coalition forces did with the information and were angered by this.
If it does emerge that most of the information that led to Saddam's arrest did indeed come from Kurdish sources, this will probably boost their status with Washington.
The capture of Saddam Hussein is the greatest success for the Americans since taking over Iraq. It does not, however, let the Americans off the hook on the question of how long their rule of occupation will remain in Iraq and how power will be transferred to the new Iraqi leaders without shocking the system. Will they wait until a new constitution is drawn up for Iraq and elections are held?
Iraqi delegates say the capture of Saddam will not mean an automatic, immediate end to guerrilla warfare and terror attacks against the coalition forces. The forces opposed to the Americans are mostly made up of former members of the Ba'ath movement, of Saddam's security and intelligence forces and volunteers from Arab states and have merely lost their "symbol" with Saddam's capture. In fact, these elements have been released from the heavy burden of a man identified with bloodshed and mass murder.
Saddam's capture enables the Americans to now define in a more coherent manner what their strategic goals are in Iraq, thus reducing their time there.
Iraqi representatives are divided over Saddam's expected trial. Some claim that since most of his crimes, including the use of chemical weapons on the Iraqi Kurdish population, were commited on Iraqi soil, he should be tried in Iraq. Others claim this is not desirable and there should be an international aspect to his trial. An Iraqi trial would make the internal reconciliation more difficult and could be seen as an American Iraqi-purifying trial. A special international war crimes trial, however, would have greater global resonance and would act as a deterrent against commiting war crimes in the future.
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「サダム・フセイン拘束劇」を読む − 第一報を受けて −
http://www.asyura2.com/0311/war44/msg/1018.html
投稿者 あっしら 日時 2003 年 12 月 15 日 04:26:49:Mo7ApAlflbQ6s
[中略]
今回の「サダム・フセイン拘束劇」が、単純に情報収集活動の成果によるものだとは考えられない。
そうであるのなら、なぜこの時期に「サダム・フセイン拘束劇」が上演されなければならなかったのかということが問題になる。
それは、明日以降の動きをウォッチしていくなかで見えてくると思っているが、現在の時点で推測できるのは、
● 明日１２月１５日に迫った政権移譲プロセスの合意の最終リミットのうやむや化
サダム・フセイン拘束は、Ｕ．Ｎ．安保理に期限を提示している政権移譲プロセスの合意の最終リミットの前日に行われた。
「サダム・フセイン拘束劇」を伝えるニュースでは、この問題は全く取り上げられていないが、６月３０日までの政権移譲と並んで１２月１５日の新憲法を含む政権移譲プロセスの合意は米英の“国際公約”である。
この問題はあまり報道されていないが、シーア派代表は現在の憲法草案に反対と伝えられているから、明日１２月１５日に合意が得られる可能性はほとんどないと推測できる。
サダム・フセイン拘束ニュースは国際的に大きな注目と関心を浴びるはずであり、１２月１５日という重要日付が吹っ飛んでしまうか、フセイン拘束の重要性が政権移譲プロセスの合意遅れを問題視させないことが考えられる。
そして、フセイン拘束を梃子に、暫定評議会とりわけシーア派に妥協を迫っていくのかもしれない。
[後略]
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以上。
題名には必ず「阿修羅さんへ」と記述してください。