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(回答先: Re: 米政府の動きを予想する「先物市場」開設へ（WIRED NEWS） 投稿者 フォトンチック 日時 2003 年 8 月 08 日 11:53:09)
●サダム・フセインの去就について昨年の秋に“先物取引”を扱ったのは
ダブリンに本拠を置くトレイドスポーツ（ http://www.tradesports.com/ ）
という会社のようです。
以下はその先物取引のプレスリリースと、これに言及した記事など――
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TradeSports has a Futures Contract on whether Saddam will be in Power in December.
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2002/9/prweb46646.htm
All Press Releases for September 22, 2002
TradeSports has a Futures Contract on whether Saddam will be the recoginsed leader of Iraq as at 31st December 2002.
TradeSports is a Dublin based Republic of Ireland limited company has listed a future contract for its members to trade on whether Saddam Hussein will be the recognised President or Leader of Iraq as at 31st December 2002. The Company listed this contract on the requests of its members.
TradeSports Exchange, the new person-to-person sports trading exchange located in Dublin Ireland has traded over 3.5 million contracts in less than 6 months operations.
www.tradesports.com uses a person-to-person sports "TRADING" model that allows its members trade in the most innovative, frictionless and transparent way on sporting events. Using the same open exchange style as a stock or futures exchange, TradeSports customers make TRADES directly with each other.
TradeSports is a Dublin based Republic of Ireland limited company.
Disclaimer: TradeSports Exchange Ltd makes no representation, express or implied as to whether any considered or executed intervention by any external entity into the sovereign nation of Iraq is warranted or justified or appropriate. Moreover the company does not make any representation, express or implied as to whether it is appropriate, warranted, justified or beneficial that Mr. Hussein is no longer the President of Iraq.
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http://gravitron.chron.com/html.ng/size=468x60
Feb. 23, 2003, 8:12PM
Professors stand by unusual futures contracts
By MARK HULBERT
New York Times
Few people would disagree with the forecast that stocks would drop if war started tomorrow in Iraq. But two Stanford economics professors, Eric Zitzewitz and Justin Wolfers, go further, predicting that the market would drop 5 percent.
Academics rarely make precise short-term market predictions. The duo arrived at theirs by using standard econometric analysis and an unusual derivative that trades at www.tradesports.com, based in Dublin, Ireland.
At this Web site, you can bet on whether Duke will win the NCAA basketball title, whether Chicago will win the Oscar for best picture or where the Dow Jones industrials will end 2003.
According to John Delaney, the site's chief executive, most of its active users are traders from Wall Street or Chicago futures exchanges.
The derivative on which the professors base their unpublished research is indeed unconventional: a futures contract on Saddam Hussein's presidency. The contract, which was trading at $7.50 recently, will pay $10 if Saddam is not Iraq's president on June 30; otherwise it will pay nothing.
Because the professors assume that Saddam will not step down, they argue that the contract reflects traders' assessment of the probability of a war resulting in his ouster. The current price suggests that the market assesses this probability as 75 percent between now and midyear.
The professors acknowledge that the contract may seem too bizarre to be the basis of serious research. They further concede that its trading volume is low, just over $140,000 over the last five months. Yet, for a variety of reasons, they say its price accurately gauges the probability of an Iraqi war.
To counter concerns about the contract's volume, the professors point out that it is still higher than that of the Iowa Electronic Market, a real-money futures exchange administered by the University of Iowa that allows speculating on the U.S. presidential election. Despite trading volume that has averaged just $108,000 an election, these Iowa contracts have had an excellent track record. Their average forecast error for the popular vote in the last four presidential contests has been 1.37 percentage points, about half the average error of nine major polling organizations, according a study by four professors at the university.
Zitzewitz and Wolfers say they believe that markets in general reflect more wisdom than any single person can possibly have, and thus do a better job of assessing probabilities. That holds true not only for large markets, they say, but also for small ones.
The professors concede that Web-based futures, which are largely unregulated, could be skewed by someone willing and able to place sizable buy or sell orders well above or below the current price. But they doubt that this is the case for the contract on Saddam's ouster, believing that no one has an obvious motive to do so.
Once the professors were satisfied that this contract was a legitimate basis for research, arriving at their conclusion was straightforward. First, they measured how much the Standard & Poor's 500 index fell, on average, when the price of the contract increased, and vice versa. These measurements let them estimate how low the S&P 500 would drop if the contract approached $10, which they believe would be likely on the day a war breaks out. They also calculated how high it would go if the contract fell to zero, reflecting zero probability. Their study, conducted with the assistance of Andrew Leigh, a Harvard graduate student, is at facultygsb.stanford.edu/zitzewitz/Research/iraq.pdf.
Their analysis projects a 20 percent difference in the S&P 500's level at the contract's two price extremes. From this, they concluded that on the day a war begins, the cumulative effect of the buildup to war would be a 20 percent drop in the S&P.
With the $10 contract trading at $7.50, the professors believe that 75 percent of the overall 20 percent drop has already occurred. That implies that if a war begins, the market would drop no more than an additional 5 percent.
If their forecasts prove accurate, the professors will overcome at least some of the concerns about the Saddam Hussein futures contract. In any case, with a proliferation of such unconventional trading instruments, we should anticipate more analyses like theirs in coming years.
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http://slate.msn.com/id/2086316/
What Weird Futures Can You Buy?
A guide to online prediction markets.
By Brendan I. Koerner
Posted Tuesday, July 29, 2003, at 2:54 PM PT
The Pentagon has scrapped its plans to operate the Policy Analysis Market, which would have allowed online traders to wager on the likelihood of future terrorist attacks. Aside from commodities like pork bellies, what sorts of futures can wannabe brokers buy and sell?
A whole galaxy, thanks to the proliferation of Internet-based prediction markets, also known as decision markets. These online bazaars allow punters to plunk down money, real or imagined, on the potential of films, ideas, or the U.S. military's success in snagging Saddam Hussein. It may sound like nothing more than glorified sports gambling, but many economists believe that such markets can suss out vital, hidden information about future events?much in the same way that a soaring stock on Wall Street can indicate that good things are afoot for the company in question. That's why the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency has been funding so much research on the topic, hoping that prediction markets can assist military planners.
The granddad of online prediction markets is the Iowa Electronic Markets, which was started in 1988 to forecast the fortunes of presidential candidates; the market now covers the Fed's interest rate decisions as well. IEM participants can use real money, with starting accounts capped at $500. The market is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. (Those with more Teutonic tastes may prefer Wahl$treet, a market for futures on German politics.)
Sports fans can take advantage of their nightly SportsCenter viewings on the Athletic Stock Exchange. Not much money to be made here, as the entry fee is $10 and the athletes trade for just a few pennies. But sports aficionados may enjoy grabbing a share of Bobby Labonte (Ticker symbol: LBNT) or Hideki Matsui (MATS) and seeing where fortune takes them. There are also veritable athletic indexes, jock versions of the S&P 500, like the Quarterback Pool, which aggregates the fortunes of all National Football League signal callers.
If news rather than sports is your informational pastime of choice, check out the current-events section at TradeSports.com, an Ireland-based betting service that made a name for itself when its market more or less predicted the date of Saddam Hussein's ouster. A future on a Saddam arrest this month just went up three points, in light of the capture of one of his chief bodyguards.
Not all prediction markets require that you risk actual cash. By far the most famous is the Hollywood Stock Exchange, which permits trade in both "MovieStocks" (pegged to the box-office success of upcoming releases) and "StarBonds" (tied to the future fabulousness of silver screeners), all in fictional money. Today, for example, the HSX is bearish on the soon-to-be-released S.W.A.T., down $5.67 on a volume of nearly 7 million shares. Angelina Jolie, whose Tomb Raider sequel disappointed over the weekend, is also having a rough Tuesday; her StarBond is down a buck.
The Foresight Exchange Prediction Market allows traders to bet on the likelihood of a range of events, from the resignation of Donald Rumsfeld by October to a devastating earthquake in the western United States by 2010. (A celebrity version of the Foresight Exchange is Long Bets, where pundits are encouraged to lay down a few thousand bucks on such outre prophecies as whether there'll be a four-day work week in the year 2070.)
If you ever had trouble making sense of the blogosphere, Blogshares may help separate the wheat from the chaff. No money's exchanged on this market?though there is a $500 contest taking place right now?but it does give bloggers bragging rights as to the popularity of their daily thoughts among Web surfers. Curiously, Slate resident blog "Kausfiles" doesn't appear to be listed on the exchange. Explainer eagerly awaits the IPO.
Bonus Explainer: At first glance, the trading of weather derivatives on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange may seem like a prediction market of sorts?after all, weather forecasting seems ripe for such wagering. But these investors are using the market to hedge their bets, not to get rich off hunches about upcoming weather. For example, an energy company that craves a long, hot summer in a certain city?the better for folks to run their air conditioners incessantly?will manage risk by purchasing futures that predict a cooler than anticipated summer. That way, they won't get burned so badly if Mother Nature doesn't comply. Since these investors are interested parties whose betting strategies are designed solely to manage risk, the weather derivatives market isn't a classic predictions market.
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