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★阿修羅♪
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本当に戦争が終わったのか、いくつかの可能性を検討しています。
イラク軍が大規模に降伏することなく消滅したこと、大した抵抗もなく都市の制圧を許したことから、軍はどこかに隠れて出撃準備をしているのではないかという可能性は当然考えられることです。
この記事の筆者は、イラク軍がまだ近郊に潜んで反撃を待っている可能性とともに、政府が裏切った可能性も指摘しています。
http://www.freearabvoice.org/readerscorner/whatHappened.htm
What Happened to the Iraqi Army and Leadership?
Some preliminary thoughts
by Abu Nicola Al Yunani
Instead of making guesses (or before making them, if you wish) we should concentrate on what we KNOW:
* The Iraqi army was NOT defeated, contrary to what "our" media would have us believe.
* The army has also NOT collapsed.
* Invader troops have NOT entered Baghdad in large numbers.
* Invader troops have encouraged large-scale looting of public property in the areas they control (a tactic which only makes sense if they know they are just passers-by, not the future administrators of the city and the country).
* The U.S. are NOT rushing to establish a new "government", even though this would give them distinct advantages (e.g. taking over Iraqi embassies and other assets in other countries)
* It would be interesting to compare this with the case of Kossovo, were the leadership DID betray: there the army was mercilessly bombed even while observing the terms of the agreement and leaving Kossovo, as was the case with the Iraqi army leaving Kuwait during the previous gulf war, there was a rush to take over strategic positions (such as the airport), and there the only cases of reported looting concerned PRIVATE property.
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Ample proof for the above is given by even imperialist media although in a negative way:
* we have NOT been shown footage of columns of destroyed tanks and artillery pieces, although estimates of the number of operational tanks of the Iraqi army number between 2.500 and 3.800.
* we have also NOT been shown footage of destroyed Iraqi airplanes - those who would dismiss the strength of the Iraqi airforce should be reminded that it was strong enough to chase away a U.S. spy plane a week before the beginning of hostilities, and that according to western estimates, Iraq has between 50 and 75 fighter planes (to say nothing of the helicopters - remember the stories promulgates by "anti-imperialist" americans like Chomsky, of Saddam's helicopters massacring Shia and Kurdish rebels after the second Gulf war).
* we have also NOT been shown footage of captured or surrendered Iraqi generals.
* we have not even read CLAIMS of the above - with the notable exception of the commander of the 5 Iraqi army corps, who is reported to have surrendered in Mosul (of course, like the commander of the 51st division who had "surrendered" in Basrah, this one has no name, and we have not been shown even a picture of him).
* There are not even significant numbers of captured Iraqi soldiers and petty officers - to make up for this, we are treated to the story that after the 5th corps surrendered (oops, not the corps, just its unnamed commander), soldiers were told by the benevolent occupation forces to go back to their garrissons or their homes, whichever they like best.
All the above proves with great certainty that a large part of the Iraqi army is intact, and has retreated somewhere in order to fight later. When? Where? Those are the million dollar questions, in my opinion, not where the leadership is. I expect the leadership to be with the army.
As to why the army allowed Americans to enter the cities, we can only speculate on this - and frankly, I don't believe we have the necessary data for this. Keep in mind that both Saddam and Tariq Aziz (and I am sure others too) had said they would fight Americans inside the cities. Of course, they could not do this if they prevented them from ENTERING those cities. So one explanation is that large numbers of tanks are lurking in the neighborhoods of Baghdad, waiting for U.S. forces to enter Baghdad (which they clearly have NOT done in large numbers yet) in order to fight them there. Such a tactic would save Baghdad and the other cities from further aerial bombing - they cannot bomb Baghdad with their troops inside, of course.
Another explanation, of course, is that there was treason at high levels, which allowed the invaders to enter Baghdad and other cities, and which FORCED the patriotic forces within the leadership to retreat and regroup.
I am sure there are other explanations too. But the explanation of a wholesale sellout by the leadership, which is being promulgated from many sources, besides being at odds with everything we know about this leadership, does not chime in with the fact that the equipment of the army has been neither destroyed, nor surrendered.
I believe within the following days, we will know more, in spite of the almost total information blackout.
Abu Nicola al Yunani
題名には必ず「阿修羅さんへ」と記述してください。