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トマホーク巡航ミサイルを使い果たしてしまう可能性が出てきた。
アフガニスタンでの「使いすぎ」が影響している模様。
Guardian
http://www.guardian.co.uk/
http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,926996,00.html
Air war weapon stockpile runs critically low
US needs to keep up supplies to back threat of new wars
Julian Borger in Washington
Tuesday April 1, 2003
The Guardian
With the war in Iraq threatening to last significantly longer than expected, US forces in the Gulf are in increasing danger of running out of some of their most important weapons in the air war.
In the first 11 days of the conflict, the US navy has fired 700 of its stock of 1,200 Tomahawk cruise missiles on ships and submarines in the region. Meanwhile, the air force and navy together have used 5,000 satellite-guided bombs, known as JDAMs, which account for more than 80% of the bombs dropped so far. The JDAM (joint direct attack munitions) arsenals on the five US aircraft carriers in the Gulf are already running low.
One solution is to switch to different types of weapons, which will happen anyway as the focus of the air campaign shifts from fixed to moving targets, from palaces and government buildings to tanks.
The other solution is to take more Tomahawks and JDAMs into the region. But even worldwide inventories would not last for many months, and US military planners, always thinking at least one war ahead, are concerned that the US might use all its firepower in Iraq and not leave enough to deal with another possible threat, such as a North Korean attack on Seoul.
There are about 13,000 JDAMs left in stockpiles around the world, according to air force estimates, and they can be shipped to the region relatively easily. They may need to be. US warplanes are maintaining a rate of 500 strike sorties a day (and 1,000 more support flights) as they continue to attack Baghdad and the Republican Guard divisions around the city.
There are also about 2,300 Tomahawk missiles left in American global arsenals, enough for about three more weeks of air strikes at the current rate. They are much harder to bring into action, as the missile arsenals of ships and submarines cannot be replenished at sea. More Tomahawks can only be brought to the battlefield by bringing new ships and submarines into the region.
JDAM have a strap-on guidance system added, mainly to 1,000lb or 2,000lb "dumb" gravity bombs, to make them "smart". They are therefore relatively cheap, about $20,000 each, a fraction of the cost of other guided bombs and missiles, such as the $600,000 Tomahawk.
Boeing, the manufacturer, has been turning JDAMs out around the clock since the Afghan war, when stocks ran seriously low. It has also increased its capacity over the past year, but monthly output is still only 1,500 a month, enough for only about two days at the current rate of sorties.
Military analysts say there is a limit to the extent the Pentagon can afford to move its arsenal of munitions around the world because it cannot leave itself unprepared to face a second, simultaneous threat elsewhere.
"The problem is that there has to be enough for this war and another one. We would have to be able to respond if the North Koreans move on Seoul," said Daniel Gouré, a military analyst at the Lexington Institute.
But the US armed forces will need fewer Tomahawks and JDAMs as the war progresses.
Bob Martinage, an expert at the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments said: "The Tomahawk is meant to go after fixed targets and they've hit most of those. There are only so many targets in that target set. When you shift to hitting targets of opportunity, you don't need them so much."
The same is true for JDAMs, which use satellite signals and GPS (global positioning system) to adjust the tail fins on the bomb, landing it within a few metres of the target. They need to be programmed with the targets' coordinates and are less useful against moving targets like tanks in battle.
Mr Gouré said as pitched battles get under way between coalition and Iraqi forces, coalition warplanes would be used less to bomb buildings and more to serve as close air support. "For that, Mavericks [heat-guided air-to-surface missiles] and laser-guided weapons," he said. "Laser-guided weapons are better than JDAMs when you start getting moving targets."
There are already signs that the coalition planners are running out of fixed targets to bomb. Over the past few days the bombers have gone back to presidential palaces and government buildings they had already attacked.
When it comes to trying to destroy bunkers, JDAMs and Tomahawks are not the ideal weapons. For that the US air force has the GBU 57, a 5,000lb satellite-guided bomb in a hardened casing that can penetrate 12 metres (40ft) of concrete or 30 metres of earth.
The Pentagon has already placed orders to replenish its stocks. Admiral William Fallon, the vice-chief of naval operations, said last week that the navy was requesting at least $3.7bn to replenish its munitions stocks to "restore inventories to pre-conflict levels".
In the short term, JDAMs can be reallocated from the air force to the navy. In the longer term, Boeing is due to double its production to 3,000 a month by the end of this year. The company will supply the air force and navy with a 250,000 of the guided bombs by 2008.
Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2003
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