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★阿修羅♪
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★阿修羅♪
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キリール・スケルチェンコ（Kirill Scheluchenko）氏は化学兵器専門家で国連のイラク査察団のメンバー。
以下かいつまんで
アメリカは、炭疸菌に加えてマスタードガス、タブン、サリン、サイクロサリン、VXガスが発見できる。
何がどのくらい発見されるかはまだ判らない。
しかし、そのサンプルは独立した専門家に提出されることはない。
「連合軍はイラクで大量破壊兵器を発見できるかどうか」という質問に対する合衆国報道官の回答は異常なものだった。
「いいえ、我々は発見していない。しかし、我々は間違いなく発見する。」
ホワイトハウスの数々の声明が軍に与える選択肢は一つ −−大量破壊兵器は発見されねばならない、大量破壊兵器は発見されるだろう。
さもなければ、大量破壊兵器の破壊を目的にイラクに侵入した連合軍はイデオロギーの基盤を失う。
現在のところ、イラクは生物・化学兵器を使ってはいない。
おそらくアメリカは、国連査察官が足を踏み入れていない、おそらく化学工業には無関係な、政治犯が過酷な条件で働いている生産工場で化学兵器を見つけるだろう。
発見された物質はデモンストレーションしながら直に廃棄される。有毒物質の総量は数トンであろう。
大量であれば、廃棄プロセスは長くなり、国連査察官に介入の余地ができるからだ。
米軍がイラクで見つける有毒物質は、イラクがかつて生産したマスタードガス、タブン、サリン、サイクロサリン、ＶＸガスであろうが、製造が簡単なリシンも除外できない。
アメリカは、有毒物質の運搬手段としての弾頭などの捜索はしないだろう。
これは、イラクは有害物質をテロリストの為に製造したと言うためであり、イラクが連合軍に化学兵器を使用しなかった理由にするためだ。
アメリカが証拠を偽造するとしたら、大量破壊兵器のプラントはアメリカの支配地区で発見されるだろう。
培養物はアメリカでつくられ、イラクに運ばれるだろう。
もし、アメリカがロシアの培養物のサンプル（多分、炭疸菌）を持っていたら、彼等はそれを使い、ロシアを生物兵器の拡散で告発するだろう。
既にアメリカは、ロシアからイラクに武器が売却されているとしてロシアを非難しているから、このシナリオも除外できない。
コリン・パウエルは国連安保理事会で移動式研究所に触れたが、査察ではそのようなものは発見されていない。
査察期間中、イラクがここ数年の間に生物化学兵器を製造した証拠は見つからなかった。
もしそのような証拠が発見されたら、安全保障理事会はそれを確認することを要求するだろが、UNMOVIC検査官の参加は許されないだろう。
これは、化学兵器の証拠が偽造されるだろうことを意味する。
勿論、本当にアメリカがその証拠を見つけたならば、アメリカは国連査察官に証拠を見せるだろう。
しかし、その可能性は極めて低い。
Russian weapons inspector: US will find anthrax
In addition, the coalition could find mustard gas, tabun, sarin, cyclosarin and VX gas.
The exact substance as well as the exact quantity is, probably, still undecided.
But whatever it is, not a single sample of this weapon will be presented for an independent expertise, believes Russian chemical weapons expert and member of the UN inspection team in Iraq Kirill Scheluchenko.
Several days ago a US military spokesman gave a rather unusual reply to a question whether the coalition forces have managed to find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.
No, we have not found them, but, "we certainly will," was the reply.
Numerous statements from the White House simply give no choice to the military --
the WMDs must be found and they "will be found".
Otherwise, the whole operation loses its initial sense as well as ideological foundation --
as the USA and Britain entered Iraq with the objective of destroying its WMDs.
The allies would have a very explicit example of Iraq violating international treaties if such weapons were used against coalition forces.
But in the ongoing conflict the Iraqi army has made no use of them --
either chemical or biological.
U.S. soldiers, who recently appeared before the cameras on the Kuwaiti border in full chemical protection suits, were not even using gas masks on Iraqi territory.
This is strange, as tactical use of chemical weapons could be very sudden and extremely dangerous.
It seems the hostilities are distracting the allies from their PR campaign.
Most probably, the Americans will find chemical weapons in places where UN inspectors have never set foot.
Probably it will be a production facility unrelated to the chemical industry, where political prisoners are working in terrible conditions making chemical weapons.
Any such supplies that are discovered will be destroyed --
in a demonstration, but promptly.
And of course, there will be no chance of independent bodies verifying the poisonous substances.
The total amount of the poisonous substance on such sites will be just a few tons, as it is difficult to destroy larger amounts of chemical weapons at once and if the process lingers, the UN inspectors could interfere, seeking proof of the authenticity.
The chemical weapons that the US troops will find in Iraq could be any one of several poisonous substances.
In different periods of time Iraq has produced mustard gas, tabun, sarin, cyclosarin and VX. Ricin, as an easily produced chemical, cannot be ruled out either.
It makes no sense trying to guess which substance exactly the US-led troops will find in Iraq, but cyclosarin and VX gas are the most difficult to produce, and therefore to falsify.
The Americans will probably not search for a means of delivery for poisonous substances, like artillery shells or aircraft bombs, as it is easier to declare that the WMDs were produced for terrorist purposes.
This will explain why they discovered chemical weapons that had not been used by the Iraqi army in military action against the coalition forces.
It is also possible that some fugitive Iraqi chemists or those the Americans manage to capture in the course of the current military operation will confirm the fact that such weapons exist.
It is obvious that if the USA dares to falsify evidence, the WMD plant's storage depot will be found on the territory controlled by the coalition forces.
Also, this territory will have been under their control for long enough so that production can be made all the more convincing.
Modern means of analysis can establish by which method and on what equipment some substances have been produced.
Americans are well aware of this and will attempt to do everything to either trick independent experts, or prevent a check from taking place at all.
I would like to remind you that all initial components needed to produce weapons-grade poisonous substances were sought out by UN experts and US intelligence all over the World in order to prevent them being supplied to Iraq.
It is reasonable to suggest that Iraq's WMD production capabilities will be destroyed by missile and artillery attacks.
So, after this, it will be extremely difficult to establish whether chemical or biological weapons were produced there at all, and if they were, then when.
It is even easier to falsify biological weapons production in Iraq.
The culture could be grown in the USA and delivered to Iraq later.
And if the Americans have in their possession samples of Russian cultures and use them (in particular, the Russian anthrax stems, which they most likely possess), then Russia would end up facing accusations of proliferation of biological weapons.
Russia will have to prove that Iraq got hold of these samples illegally, will have to launch a special probe and disclose certain details of biological weapons research conducted in the USSR.
If we take into account the fact that the US has already been accusing Russian companies of supplying weapons to Iraq, such a scenario cannot be ruled out.
Also, the US-UK alliance forces could also bring up Colin Powell's report at the foreign ministers' meeting at the UN Security Council.
He mentioned mobile laboratories several times, and, in theory, it is possible to produce up to one ton of biological weapons in such laboratories.
Nobody knows if Saddam Hussein's regime possesses mobile facilities for biological weapons production.
It can only be said for sure that no such laboratories were discovered during inspections.
Everybody understands perfectly well the US' desire to present the World with material evidence of WMD production in Iraq, but as it was clearly stated in the reports by the head of UNMOVIC, Hans Blix, in all the time of the inspectors' work in Iraq, no proof was found that the country had conducted work in the sphere of chemical and biological weapons in recent years.
Evidently, if such proof is found, the Security Council will demand that a check of the substances be conducted.
If the USA wanted to invade Iraq legitimately, then they would have been interested in cooperating with the UN, helping to find banned weapons in Hussein's possession.
However, Powell's recent statements that the UN will be excluded from the process of creating post-war order in Iraq testify to the US' intention of following the most radical scenario of finding WMDs --
a scenario where UNMOVIC inspectors will not be allowed to participate.
And this, in turn, will mean one thing --
that proof of chemical weapons in Iraq will be forged.
Of course, if the Americans really do find proof that work on such weapons was going on in Iraq, they will allow the UN inspectors to see it and there will be no hurry in destroying the weapons.
But the probability of such a development is very low.
The UN inspectors used the CIA's operative reports in their work, trying to find at least something that could point at Iraq's violation of UN resolution 1414, but not a single aspect of the American intelligence has been proved.
27 МАРТА 18:21
http://www.gazeta.ru/2003/03/27/Russianweapo.shtml
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